To which countries did the Ukrainian refugees go? 1:04
(CNN) — The war in Ukraine could enter a critical new phase, with a new focus from the Russian military, a final battle in a key Ukrainian city and the promise of additional US firepower to help Ukraine fight back.
New focus. Russia’s military is now focused on the disputed eastern part of Ukraine, which was believed to be its target before the invasion began. British intelligence understands that Ukrainian forces have repulsed numerous advances by Russian forces in the region, but US officials warn that the Russians may be preparing for a major attack in south-eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian poplar. Russian thrusts south against besieged defenders in the city of Mariupol, a key supply hub, are dampening the hopes of Ukrainian forces after the commander’s desperate plea for help. According to the Ukrainian government, women and children are also seeking refuge in a steel mill, which is the military stronghold.
More weapons are coming. The United States is considering a new weapons injection to help Ukraine adjust to a different phase of the conflict.
The Biden administration believes the war is at a critical juncture and is looking at ways to support Ukraine’s military.
Another $800 million in aid? CNN’s White House and Pentagon teams are reporting that the Biden administration may send another $800 million military aid package to Ukraine, on top of the $800 million announced last week . Size and details are subject to change. A senior administration official told CNN Tuesday the package could arrive within the next 36 hours, but another administration official said the time was not yet closed.
Separately, the parts have helped Ukraine add about 20 aircraft to its air force, a senior US defense official said Wednesday, although it was unclear where the parts came from.
Total: would add a total of $3.4 billion in US aid since the invasion of Ukraine began if the second $800 million package is approved.
What is sent to the East to help? Artillery and long-range systems might be more useful in more open terrain. This is the same disputed region of Donbass where Russian-backed troops have been battling the Ukrainian army for years.
A Ukrainian searches for his missing father in the Russian invasion 3:18
What’s with all that firepower? It’s not entirely clear. An interesting CNN report focused on how the United States is losing track of the weapons it is sending to Ukraine.
From the CNN report: In deciding to send billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment to Ukraine, the Biden administration has considered the risk that some of the shipments could end up in unexpected places, a defense official said. But for now, the official said, the government sees a greater risk in not adequately arming Ukraine.
I asked CNN’s Oren Liebermann, who helped write the two stories about US military aid, what would happen to all these additional weapons that are likely to be shipped to Ukraine from the US.
Note the importance of artillery, he told me. It’s expected to be a big part of the next shipment, and it was an important (though much smaller) part of the last $800 million package.
Why hadn’t more artillery been sent?
Dear man: Because artillery wasn’t the kind of weapon needed to defend Kyiv. In the swamps and forests of northern Ukraine, not to mention the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, artillery was not a crucial part of the fighting. With the focus now on southeastern Ukraine, artillery and other long-range weapons are absolutely crucial.
Is this new technology or a game changer in the fray?
Dear man: Let’s be clear: artillery is not a new technology. Perhaps the systems are newer and offer a bit more accuracy or more firepower, but artillery isn’t a novel piece of military hardware that hasn’t been seen before. Quite the contrary: it has been an integral part of warfare for many, many decades, if not a few centuries.
And yet the US and its partners/allies see it as one of the most important weapons to get into Ukraine… fast. Ukraine can burn through artillery ammo quickly, so it’s important to get them a very large supply as soon as possible.
How does the Pentagon view its responsibility if these weapons are in Ukraine?
Dear man: This is not considered critical. The task of the Ministry of Defense is to take it to the border, and from there Ukraine takes it to where it thinks it is needed. Ukraine currently has an almost insatiable appetite for more guns, and that’s what the United States, along with help from other countries, are trying to satiate.
What do we know about what has been sent so far? According to CNN’s Ellie Kaufman, a senior US defense official told reporters Wednesday that the first of 40,000 rounds of howitzer, a type of artillery munition, has arrived in Europe to be shipped to Ukraine. These are part of the recent $800 million package.
The United States is training about 50 Ukrainians in a country outside Ukraine (it is not clear which one) to use howitzer guns.
“This is to train the instructors — it’s a small number of Ukrainians, just over 50 — they’ll be trained to use the howitzers, and then they can go back to Ukraine and train their peers,” the official said.
The NATO problem is looming. Finland and Sweden are now actively considering joining NATO. So if Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan was to halt the growth of the alliance, it has officially failed. Russia has warned that such moves could lead to a more aggressive stance on its hypersonic or nuclear weapons.
Setback for Putin: Sweden and Finland accelerate NATO accession 5:52
noise of sabers. An ICBM test conducted by Russia on Wednesday is a message to countries trying to threaten him, Putin said.
Task. Russia became further isolated from the world community after Western finance officials, including the US Treasury Secretary, walked out of a behind-closed-doors meeting of the Group of 20 industrialized nations in Washington instead of listening to a Russian presentation.
What is the nuclear threat in Ukraine? CNN’s Barbara Starr and Zachary Cohen report that the US military is keeping a close eye on Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
The US has seen no indication that Russia has deployed its nuclear arsenal, and Starr and Cohen report that US officials still believe there is a very slim chance that Putin will cross that line.
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned last week that the world must prepare for the possibility that Putin could use nuclear weapons.
From Starr and Cohen: Top-secret US military plans continue to be updated into what everyone believes to be an almost unthinkable scenario: the use of a nuclear weapon. The US military “planned all of this,” said a senior defense official.
Final Note: Life at the Front in the Russian Army. CNN’s Phil Black went to an abandoned Russian military camp on the outskirts of Kyiv. When the soldiers failed to take the Ukrainian capital, they were left in primitively dug trenches. Black speaks to civilians who have been captured and tortured by the Russians, as well as a priest who has been asked to bury the people they have killed. See his video report here.