In early returns from the NBA Trade and Free Agency 2022 era, the Portland Trail Blazers have been linked to Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine. The two-time All-Star is an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Blazers have the potential to make room for a salary cap to sign. They also need to beef up talent after firing several veterans mid-season last year. Could a Blazers-LaVine union work? The Blazer’s Edge Mailbag wonders if the possibility is real and how good the idea is. Namely this question from Joseph:
David,
Zach Lavine to Portland? I have mixed feelings. It’s one of those steps that makes me nervous when I look at it, but if it were done then, let’s be honest, I’d probably be very happy. What do you think about it? How true are the rumors and do you think going in for Zach would make us better?
Joseph (not Joe) D
LaVine is ready for someone’s hefty payday. However, I doubt it’s Portland.
You can expect the Blazers to be associated with a lot of free agents this year simply because they can theoretically make room for caps. It’s in the best interest of the players and their agents to cause a stir. Portland is an easy target for this type of game. The Blazers will be interested in several players, I’m sure. They don’t mind being mentioned as a potential hotspot. But the distance between “connected with” and “playing for” is great. In this case very special.
LaVine has been improving its inventory over the past few seasons. He’s earned two All-Star finishes, scoring 27.4 and 24.4 ppg with high percentages from the field and from the arch. Offensively he is a master artist. Don’t sleep on his ability to score.
LaVine has also improved in non-scoring areas. His play structure has made a leap forward with the Bulls. In 2021-22, Chicago built a track record and made the playoffs, a crucial element to LaVine’s portfolio.
At 26, LaVine is just entering its prime, with its best potential in the next few years. He remains a legitimate #1 option, one of a few dozen players who could claim that honor.
Still, LaVine doesn’t fit Chicago, at least not entirely. After an initial flurry about their prospects, the Bulls have been ridiculed this year for their complete lack of defense. LaVine did not help this situation. No matter how many high-flying dunks and dagger threes roll up the top ten games, half the game is still played defensively. LaVine has improved marginally since his early seasons, but he’s still an exploitable defender.
That’s a big problem for Portland. If the Blazers took over LaVine, any claim to a better defense would be lip service at best. Whether playing as a shooting guard or small forward, he would edge out a better defender in the rotation. He would also work alongside Damian Lillard, who isn’t the best direct defender himself. Lillard does well on defense when surrounded by active, space-eating defenders. LaVine would sink that, leaving Lillard’s weaknesses completely open.
The Blazers just parted ways with CJ McCollum, a different breed of player than LaVine but still tremendously talented. Lillard and McCollum seamlessly shared the field on offense, largely because McCollum was willing to defer when needed. Ultimately, the backcourt between Lillard and McCollum was unsustainable because they couldn’t defend well enough as a pair.
It could be argued that LaVine represents an increase in offensive potential over McCollum — not least because he’s hyper-athletic — but the win is marginal. There’s no guarantee LaVine and Lillard could share the ball and team leadership as heartily as Lillard and McCollum. The assumption of the defensive liabilities of the former tandem is as good as guaranteed. There’s no reason to think that the outcome of this new, attack-heavy experiment would be any different than the old one.
The signing of LaVine would have Blazers fans excited about the potential at the start of each game. The excitement for the first six weeks of the season would be intense. It would be like entering a casino for the first time. Anything can happen, even hitting the big jackpot!
It wouldn’t be long before the law of averages took hold. Bells and whistles make it seem like every hit on this slot is a win. The slowly emptying wallet tells a different story.
Speaking of dumping…signing LaVine would require the Blazers to sacrifice some of their current lineup. In theory, the Blazers can free up around $50 million to Cap Space provided they’re willing to part ways with Eric Bledsoe. But they also have the following four cap holds and/or salary commitments:
Josh Hart $13 million (non-guaranteed contract)
Yusuf Nurkic $18 million (cap hold)
Anfernee Simons $11.9 million (cap hold)
Joe Ingles $19.5 million (cap hold)
LaVine currently makes $19.5 million a year. He won’t sign that again. Giving up Ingles would only free up part of the space needed for an attack on Zach. The Blazers would need to lose at least one, if not two, main players alongside Ingles. That makes the prospect far less appealing, even if you view LaVine as a generational offensive talent.
Unless something weird happens or the Blazers decide to take their franchise in a very different direction, I don’t see Zach LaVine joining any time soon. The cost is too high and the improvement too speculative to make this deal work.
You can always send your own Mailbag questions to [email protected]!