He had little political experience when Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo became president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 2019. It was the death of his father – the iconic opposition figure who first took on dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and then the long-running Kabila dynasty – that thrust Tshisekedi into the spotlight and paved his way to the Palais de la Nation in Kinshasa.
Now, after a contentious five-year term that brought major economic and political upheaval, including the COVID-19 pandemic, two Ebola outbreaks, the resurgence of rebel groups and escalating tensions with neighboring Rwanda, Tshisekedi is back at the ballot box. This time he is competing for the presidency alongside a number of strong opposition politicians and is conducting the election campaign with far more skill than in his first election campaign.
At that time, Tshisekedi had to deal with a heavyweight like Joseph Kabila – the predecessor whom his father Etienne rejected, but with whom Tshisekedi wanted to work in a coalition. This agreement was such a burden that the ruling faction did not have a majority in parliament for several months.
“Tshisekedi was a weak president,” Albert Malukisa, dean of the political department at the Catholic University of Congo, told Al Jazeera. “It was Kabila who controlled the situation.”
A turning point soon came when Tshisekedi dealt a surprise card, ousting the former president's cronies from the government or winning them over with political appointments or financial packages, Malukisa said.
As the December 20 election approaches, the polls, which could mark the second peaceful transfer of power in the Democratic Republic of Congo's 63 years of independence, will also be another test for Tshisekedi of whether he can outwit his rivals again. Tshisekedi, once an election favorite, now faces stronger opposition candidates than in the 2018 election and is struggling to win popular support.
“[His] The popularity has declined over time,” Malukisa said, adding that his re-election was not a given with people like Moise Katumbi, a former governor of Katanga province, in the picture. “One of them will probably win,” the professor added.
Whether he successfully exploits the power of his office or is forced out of office after one term, “Fatshi” – as the president's supporters call him – has left his mark on the Democratic Republic of Congo. Some critics say his government has made several controversial decisions, others say he has achieved significant economic successes for the Congolese.
Insecurity, oppression and a state of siege
Tshikedi's government is still grappling with ongoing violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, stemming from more than 30 years of insecurity in the region.
Communities in Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu provinces have been subjected to relentless attacks from a variety of armed groups, resulting in the deaths of thousands of people and the displacement of seven million people. The alleged Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 controls vast areas in North Kivu, while the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) – an armed group linked to ISIL (ISIS) – continues to carry out brutal attacks on communities near Uganda's border.
Campaigning in North Kivu's capital Goma this week, Tshisekedi heavily accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame of supporting M23 and vowed to “liberate” the Democratic Republic of Congo from the group. But the president's efforts to deploy regional troops after the Democratic Republic of Congo joins the East African Community (EAC) bloc in 2022 have yielded little results. This force, as well as MONUSCO, the United Nations peacekeeping mission stationed in the country since 1999, have failed to contain the crises and are now gradually withdrawing from the country.
Many criticize the state of emergency that has been imposed on North Kivu and Ituri since May 2021. The order gives the military broad powers to mobilize against the armed group, but also allowed the army to crack down on civilians, human rights activists say.
Steward Muhindo Kalyamughuma, an activist with youth organization Fight for Change (LUCHA), said the emergency decree was merely a continuation of the conditions experienced by Congolese under Kabila's 18-year rule.
“During this state of siege, the repression against LUCHA was at its strongest,” the activist told Al Jazeera. Three of his comrades were shot dead by the Congolese army during peaceful demonstrations.
Dozens also died in Goma in September after the army opened fire on protesters demanding the withdrawal of the U.N. peacekeeping force, which many consider toothless. “This never happened to us under Joseph Kabila,” the activist added.
Poverty and corruption
Critics of the current government also say that Tshisekedi has done little to curb corruption in the country.
Despite the country's immense natural resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo is one of the poorest countries in the world. It is the world's leading producer of cobalt and the third largest producer of copper – minerals used in the manufacture of electronic devices and electric vehicles.
Yet more than half of the country's 95 million people live on less than $2.15 a day. About 80 percent of Congolese youth are unemployed. Food prices are rising – influenced by COVID-19, the Ukraine war and a weakened currency. Poor infrastructure such as poor roads and a lack of electricity continue to cripple the country.
Meanwhile, corruption continues on a sky-high scale, from petty bribes extorted daily from the Congolese population to huge embezzlement scandals rocking the Democratic Republic of Congo's state-owned mining companies. Hopes that the riots documented under Kabila would be prosecuted have been dashed as the former leader continues to enjoy the protection of the Tshisekedi government despite their falling out.
Tshisekedi himself has been accused of confronting some politicians specifically over their voting power, with some pointing the finger at Deputy Prime Minister Vital Kamerhe and Jean-Pierre Bemba, both of whom were implicated in fraud and war crimes respectively.
In Goma, where the M23 once briefly won and the president has managed to hold rallies, Bisimwa Bibasa Andre, a teacher, said he was unconvinced.
“I don’t have a normal life,” said the 44-year-old. “Since Tshisekedi came to power, life has deteriorated. I don't have enough food and there is no money at all. We have corruption, high-level tribalism, nepotism and lies. He lied to the Congolese people,” Andre said.
Free education and a wealthier economy
But Tshikedi's government has also achieved great successes. The Democratic Republic of Congo is now receiving support from the World Bank for an $800 million education project that will allow children to attend primary schools for free. This is the first program of its kind in a country ranked 179th out of 191 countries on the UN Development Program's Human Development Index.
About 4.5 million children were enrolled in the program and at least 36,000 teachers were employed. Tshisekedi has promised in his campaigns to expand the program to secondary schools. Although challenges have arisen, including non-payment of teachers, embezzlement and overcrowding in schools, experts like Malukisa say the project is still a positive development.
Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursed millions of dollars under a $1.5 billion credit facility in 2019 to boost government coffers to cushion the harsh impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the import-dependent country .
Analysts are also satisfied with the increase in the state budget under Tshisekedi. Higher oil prices as well as tax reforms, including strengthening the Inspectorate General of Finance (IGF), which acts as an anti-corruption agency and tries to detect financial fraud, caused the state budget to rise from about $10 billion to $16 billion in 2023.
Poorly negotiated mining contracts signed before Tshisekedi took office are being reviewed. In 2021, the state balked at a 2008 minerals-for-infrastructure deal signed with China that many say left the Democratic Republic of Congo short-changed. Chinese firms were expected to build $3 billion worth of hospitals and roads in exchange for a 68 percent stake in Sicomines, a joint copper and cobalt company with Democratic Republic of Congo-based Gecamines, which is valued at a much higher price became. This year, the IGF demanded $17 billion more for the deal, and Congolese officials say a “50-50” agreement has now been reached, although few details are known.
A man sleeps under a campaign banner of presidential candidate Moise Katumbi, one of Tshisekedi's main opponents, in Kinshasa, December 13, 2023 [Patrick Meinhardt/AFP]
Stay or go?
Despite his mixed record, some say there are benefits to Tshisekedi returning for a second term.
Ituku Walassa Bernard is 38 years old and lives in Goma. Even though he is unemployed and M23 fighters are just a few kilometers away from taking the city of over a million people, Bernard says he will vote for Tshisekedi. The president's feisty attitude toward Rwanda's Kagame, whom he recently compared to Hitler, scored big points with Bernard.
“We have some people in the opposition who are lying during this election campaign and saying, 'If I'm elected, I will end this war within six months,'” Bernard said. But it will take time to end the war or achieve greater economic prosperity in the Democratic Republic of Congo, he added. “We have to be patient because we have to deal with it methodically. Things change. I hope that he [Tshisekedi] can bring big changes if we give him a second mandate.”
Malukisa from the Catholic University of Congo is more skeptical. “Overall, the president’s record is negative,” he said. A Tshisekedi victory, he added, could increase tensions with Rwanda and breathe new life into an old system of political elitism.
“The leaders that Tshisekedi is relying on to win the elections are the same ones who have contributed to the destruction of the state since the days of Mobutu and Kabila,” Malukisa said. “We cannot count on the current ruling class.”
As the vote approaches, the question of whether there will be a free and fair election hangs heavily in the air. In 2018, opposing candidate Martin Fayulu contested the elections, saying they were rigged in favor of Tshisekedi. With voters complaining about substandard voter cards and poor registration processes even before the election, opposition representatives say the electoral body CENI is planning to rig the elections in the president's favor. Just this week, Moise Katumbi's rally in a Tshisekedi stronghold turned violent.
But a rigged vote would damage rather than destroy Tshisekedi's legacy, experts warn. However, if the president loses, tensions could be high in his home province of Kasai and parts of Kinshasa, where he is very popular, as violence regularly erupts in Congolese elections.
“The future of the Democratic Republic of Congo is truly unpredictable,” Malukisa said.