No respite for Doug Ford’s government: it remains in turmoil. This time it is the launch of a criminal investigation into the Greenbelt real estate scandal that is worrying and slowing progressive conservatives. Behind the scenes, many are already wondering about the prime minister’s chances of being re-elected.
Two words continued to resonate with the political class this week: criminal investigations. The conclusions of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) will not be known for several months, if not years, but the mere possibility that charges will be laid has opposition parties cheering.
The RCMP will investigate the entire process that led to the withdrawal of certain lands in the Greenbelt, a vast protected area in the Toronto suburbs. To date, the Auditor General has found favoritism in land selection and the Integrity Commissioner has also raised irregularities. Now it is the turn of the police to poke their noses into this matter, endowed with powers far superior to those of the officers of the Legislative Assembly.
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A soybean field is harvested on a farm in the Greenbelt in King City.
Photo: Evan Mitsui/CBC / Evan Mitsui
“This is the biggest political disaster you can have,” University of Toronto political scientist Christopher Cochrane summarized this week.
Observers like Mr. Cochrane have difficulty seeing how the Ford government will manage to shake off the scandal while the RCMP is investigating. An investigation that should last at least 12 to 18 months.
[Les progressistes-conservateurs] They want to escape the scandal, but it is clear that they will not succeed.
Doug Ford’s troops had a day of distraction this week with New Democrat Sarah Jama’s controversial statement. However, this short interlude seems to be over. Reality sets in. The return to the House on Monday, after a week in the constituency, is likely to be brutal for Mr Ford and his entourage. The question time promises to be explosive.
one time chance
The opposition parties want to use the Ford government’s setbacks as a springboard. The opportunity is ideal to recover and attack the integrity of the government, which has become its Achilles heel due to the Green Belt revelations. This is especially true for the Liberals, who must elect a leader in the fall and introduce him to the public. The scandal could therefore become a runway for the next leader.
It would not be surprising if the RCMP investigation extended into the next election, which would certainly hurt Mr. Ford’s chances of re-election and perhaps also reduce his chances of remaining at the helm of the Progressive Conservatives. There is no doubt that tensions within the group must have increased significantly in recent days. Commentators have even suggested that the prime minister should temporarily step down and hand control of the party to another elected official while he weathers the storm.
All outside observers agree that Doug Ford’s problems with the Greenbelt are just beginning.
The fact is that the next Ontario caucus is still a long way off. 32 valuable months that could benefit the government and give it time to get back on its feet.
Ontario voters won’t be called to the polls until 2026, an eternity in politics, but an eternity that could coincide with the conclusion of the RCMP investigation.
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Premier Doug Ford apologized to Ontarians, 10 months after announcing changes to the Greenbelt. (Archive)
Photo: The Canadian Press / Tara Walton
[Doug Ford] There is certainly still time to move on from his current political challenges and return to the successful messages he delivered in the last two provincial elections, believes former Liberal strategist Dan Moulton.
One thing is certain: Progressive Conservatives are not the type to sit idle. A mutiny is not impossible when their support dwindles and victory becomes out of reach. Talk to former chef Patrick Brown.
The faction’s loyalty to the leader is tested. As Liberal MP John Fraser pointed out, protecting the king and the prime minister at all costs becomes less popular when a criminal investigation hangs over your head. Team spirit sometimes gives way to individual survival.