(CNN) – The silence on Lebanon’s border with Israel is deafening. After five days of near-constant crossfire between Lebanese fighters and Israeli forces, the guns appear to have largely fallen silent.
This remains one of the most important and dangerous fault lines in the unstable region. After Hamas’ surprise attacks on Israel on October 7, this border, which has been largely quiet since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, has become even more important.
Any conflict that erupts here could add fuel to the fire of the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel by involving the most powerful paramilitary group in the Middle East: the Iran-backed Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s political stance has clearly supported Palestinian militants. He has sponsored rallies in support of Palestinian groups and strongly condemned Israel’s large-scale air strikes on Gaza.
More than 1,200 people have been killed in Hamas attacks on Israel, while more than 1,500 have been killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza since Saturday.
However, it is not yet clear whether Hezbollah will actively participate in this conflict. So far it has stuck to its current rules of engagement and has repeatedly said it will only fire on Israel if shots are fired on Lebanese territory or its fighters. This position was largely maintained despite the spiraling tension.
U.N. peacekeepers patrol a border wall with Israel in Kfar Kila, Lebanon, Oct. 9, 2023.
(Source: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images)
Rather, the skirmishes here can be seen as the faint rumblings of mutual conflict since the start of the war between Hamas and Israel. Palestinian militants based in Lebanon have been firing rockets at Israel for days, triggering Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory, including Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah responded with precision missiles against Israeli border positions.
Three Hezbollah fighters and three Israeli soldiers were killed in the almost week-long exchange of fire.
So far, Hezbollah has not intervened on behalf of the Palestinian militants. The group has explicitly linked its attacks against Israel to Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory, and fighting remains confined to that border region.
However, the region remains on a knife edge.
Several reports suggest that Western diplomats have tried to keep the Shiite armed group out of the emerging conflict. The USS Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is now stationed in the eastern Mediterranean in what many analysts see as a U.S. attempt to head off that possibility, which could usher in a much more violent phase of this war.
Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah is a regional power. For years it has been involved in various conflicts in the Middle East, including in Iraq and Syria. He is also believed to have provided material support and training to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Its fighters are battle-hardened and have fought on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against armed Syrian opposition groups as well as against ISIS and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front. This gave them great experience in urban warfare.
Hezbollah also has a much more sophisticated arsenal than it did during its 2006 war with Israel, which ended with no clear winner or loser. At the time, many parts of Lebanon were destroyed, but Hezbollah thwarted Israel’s ultimate plan to disband the group, dealing a severe blow to Israel’s aura of invincibility. At that time, Hezbollah fought primarily with inaccurate Soviet-era Katyusha rockets. Today it has precision-guided missiles.
Hezbollah’s intervention could not only bring more sophisticated weapons and fighters into the current conflict, but also attract other parties. Hezbollah is part of a coalition of Iranian-backed fighters still based in Syria. Their participation could open a third front on the Syria-Israel border, this time alongside the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is also present in Syria.
Senior Hezbollah official Sayyed Hashem Safieddine speaks during a rally in Beirut on October 8, 2023, to express solidarity with Palestinians. (Source: Emilie Madi/Portal)
Until the conflict between Hamas and Israel ends, diplomats and observers of all kinds will continue to closely monitor this powder keg. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has remained conspicuously quiet since hostilities began in the south, adding to the strangely relatively calm but incredibly tense atmosphere.
Thursday’s calm on the Lebanese-Israeli border – occasionally punctuated by Israel intercepting rockets from Palestinian militants – raises many questions. Has the bursting almost completely stopped here? Or is it the calm before a major regional storm?