A man watches a news channel on television in a shop after Pakistan's foreign ministry said the country had carried out attacks in Iran against separatist militants, two days after Tehran said it had Israel-linked militant bases in Peshawar, Pakistan, on January 18 attacked on Pakistani territory. 2024.
Fayaz Aziz | Portal
Iran's recent missile and drone attacks on targets in three countries – Syria, Iraq and Pakistan – may not have been directly related to Israel's war in Gaza, but still showed an intent to send a clear message, analysts told CNBC.
“While incitement against Israel is nothing new, the recent launch of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile against ISIS in Syria was a historic first and a message to the Jewish state,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu. Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington DC
“Stressing military might in the hope of deterring opponents has become increasingly important to the regime as wars expand in the region.”
In a 24-hour period starting on January 15, Iranian forces reportedly attacked an Israeli “spy center” in Iraq's Kurdistan region, Islamic State targets in Syria and militants in Pakistan who had allegedly carried out attacks on Iran. Iraqi and Pakistani ministers loudly criticized the attacks, calling them a “violation” and warning of consequences.
Pakistan responded a day later and attacked targets in Iran, killing several people, according to Iranian authorities.
While Iran's actions in Pakistan and Syria were a response to domestic security concerns, the developments increased the intensity and risk of a major escalation in a region already mired in war since Israel launched its offensive against Gaza on October 7 Retaliation for a Hamas terrorist attack began in 2023. It was also the first time since the start of the Israel-Hamas war that Iran directly used its military.
“No question, this is a powder keg. The Middle East is very dry and we have a lot of sparks,” said Ian Bremmer, CEO of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “And I assume that this conflict will only escalate further.”
Iran funds and supplies forces in the region that oppose Israel, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Shiite militia groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen – all part of its regional proxy network and deterrence strategy as a so-called “Axis” are of resistance.” These forces engage more directly with Israel and even the USA; Iran-backed Iraqi militias are firing rockets at American military bases in Iraq and Yemen's Houthis say they are in “direct confrontation” with the US as they attack ships in the Red Sea supporting Gaza.
Iran's leaders have said they do not want a major war, but last week's attacks served both the purpose of deterring threats to the country's internal security and showing what the country is capable of when provoked, they said Ryan Bohl, senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at the Iran RANE Network.
“Carrying out these attacks sends some signal to the United States and Israel because they demonstrate Iran's continued ballistic missile capabilities,” Bohl told CNBC.
“I don't think Iran intentionally attacked Pakistan to signal these capabilities to the United States and Israel, as they have also carried out attacks on Syria and Iraq, but it was still part of this broader pattern.”
A civil defense team conducts search and rescue operations in a damaged building after Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a missile attack on the Kurdistan Region's capital Erbil on January 17, 2024.
Safin Hamid | AFP | Getty Images
Concerns remain that any miscalculation could trigger a larger war. The Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the subsequent US and British attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen already represent an unwanted and unintended expansion of the war for the US and its allies.
Iran's support for the Houthis and other groups, as well as its recent actions, appear to be a sign that it is flexing its muscles as a leading country in the region and opposing Israel.
However, some regional analysts believe that Iran is facing greater backlash from the targets it attacks and is deviating from a fairly consistent strategy of using force through its proxies.
“Iran’s three attacks were three to one. They tried to restore deterrence against Israel and terrorist groups like ISIS,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told CNBC.
“But the attacks, particularly in Pakistan, were very brazen and showed somewhat more erratic behavior as they were inconsistent with Iran's previous approaches.”