“And now this?” McCarthy’s dismissal leaves the United States with an ungovernable Congress

And now this McCarthys dismissal leaves the United States with

The historic vote had just ended. It was the first time a president of the House of Representatives had been replaced following a no-confidence motion also filed by a congressman from the hard wing of his own party. At that moment, a shout was heard from the Republican bench: “What now?” That’s the question everyone on Capitol Hill is asking after the firing of Kevin McCarthy. The House’s legislative activity is paralyzed pending the election of a new speaker and there are still no clear candidates to replace him. But beyond that, the ability of Republican extremists to hold Congress hostage threatens a much longer stalemate.

Congress is divided. The Senate has a Democratic majority of 51 to 49. The House of Representatives, where there are two defeats, is dominated by Republicans (221 to 212). So far it has been very difficult to pass a law. In two crucial moments. McCarthy decided to reach an agreement with the Democrats. First, to suspend the debt ceiling and prevent the government from defaulting on its financial obligations. This brought him an uprising from the radicals in his party. A temporary budget extension should then be approved, which would prevent a partial closure of the administration. That cost him his head.

The House of Representatives must now elect a new president. In January, at the start of the legislative session, 15 votes were needed to appoint McCarthy, who had to make concessions to overcome opposition from his party’s hard wing. The paradox of the November 2022 general election was that voters often punished the most extreme candidates, but this ultimately strengthened their influence. The narrow majority that emerged from the House polls (222 seats to 213, although there was subsequent decline in each group) left most of the decision-making power to the twenty congressmen of the Freedom Caucus, the Freedom Group Republican Radicals.

McCarthy has already announced to his people that he will not present his candidacy in the new presidential election, although he remains the one who enjoys the greatest support among his people. His dismissal is a warning to anyone seeking to replace him. The radical Republicans, encouraged by events, will place the same or even higher demands on the new candidate as they did on McCarthy. Put simply, the lesson remains that there is no water for the Democrats.

The Republican leader of the House ordered the opening of a formal investigation into Joe Biden as a precursor to a possible political trial (impeachment) to try to satisfy his party’s extremists so that they would give in and not bring about the termination of non-essential administration services. But the radicals proved to be insatiable and also wanted to punish the tenant of the White House with the so-called government shutdown.

A bipartisan agreement among moderate Republicans to elect a House speaker seems like science fiction. So if you want to be elected, you have to face the demands of the radical minority in your party. At the same time, this means that it will be difficult to reach an agreement with the Democrats and therefore increases the risk of an ungovernable Congress.

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No clear candidates

The presidency of the House of Representatives has been temporarily assumed for now by Patrick McHenry, Congressman from North Carolina, as he was the first on a secret list of deputies that McCarthy had submitted to the Clerk of the House of Representatives early in his term, according to reports he knew this after his dismissal . McHenry is chairman of the Financial Services Committee, one of the most important in the House of Representatives, and is very close to McCarthy, as his appointment shows. He is having a hard time deciding on a replacement after his traumatic layoff.

Another potential natural candidate would be Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is the No. 2 Republican in the group after McCarthy, although further away from him. However, he is undergoing chemotherapy for leukemia, so this is not an easy solution either. Third in the Republican ranks is Tom Emmer of Minnesota, who is another possible option, but he is not a heavyweight in the party nor does he have any discernible leadership. Elise Stefanik, the highest-ranking woman in the group, and Tom Cole, chairman of the Rules Committee, also appear in the pools.

An absolute majority of votes cast by a candidate in the plenary session is required for election. Democrats are expected to support their own leader Hakeem Jeffries, who won several rounds of election in January when the Republican vote was divided. It’s likely that Republicans will try to agree on a name before submitting it to the floor to avoid repeating the spectacle of 15 votes in January, but there are no guarantees they will succeed.

The first consequence of the House of Commons paralysis is that legislation authorizing spending for the fiscal year that has just begun cannot be acted upon. The United States has not one budget law, but a dozen. Each year, Congress must pass twelve appropriations bills for the various government departments by a majority in both the House and Senate. The last time this was done on time was in 1997. Now an extension has been agreed that will keep the administration running at full speed, but only until November 17th. If the relevant laws are not passed by then, the narrowly avoided partial closure of the administration will occur unless a new temporary measure is approved. The radicals reject any kind of extension and have made clear the price of ignoring it.

The Democrats voted together to fire McCarthy, who this Tuesday refused to make concessions to the rival party in order to get out of the fire. Several members of Congress had made it clear that they would not bail out McCarthy for nothing, especially after he ordered the investigation into Biden without much basis. But while Democrats are tempted to rejoice in Republican chaos and division, congressional paralysis is working against them. Even when it seemed obvious that the threat of a government shutdown was due to the hardline Republican wing, many voters blamed Biden.

Former President Donald Trump dumped McCarthy without doing anything to stop it. Trump once pressured the party’s hardliners to vote for him, but now he was also in favor of provoking a government shutdown. On the day of the motion against McCarthy, he limited himself to complaining about the internal disputes on his social network Truth: “Why do the Republicans always fight among themselves, why don’t they fight against the radical left-wing Democrats who are destroying our country?” he wrote.

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