Anne Applebaum: «The West must prepare for this scenario». For the writer and journalist, “the war can only end when the Russians realize they have lost”
“Nothing changes. And it’s quite cynical. Why not on December 24, when Ukrainian Catholics and even some Orthodox celebrate Christmas? Or why not on New Year’s Eve, which for many in Russian-speaking countries is more important than Christmas?”
In September, following Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, Anne Applebaum — a writer and journalist who has also been involved in important talks with historians and intellectuals requested by President Joe Biden — wrote in the Atlantic: “Ukrainians could do it win war. Are we in the West really prepared for a Ukrainian victory? Do we know what other changes it might bring?”. Applebaum said back in March it was necessary to “imagine the possibility of victory,” more precisely defined (“Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy with the right to choose its own leaders and treaties”). As Zelenskyi clarified in Washington, “victory” for Kyiv no longer means just retaking territories, but also obtaining economic reparations and justice for war crimes. A definition that is justified for Applebaum, albeit “extraordinarily ambitious”. It’s hard to imagine how Russia can accept that if Putin stays in power. “We have to reckon with the fact that a Ukrainian victory, and even more so a victory as Ukraine understands it, will also bring about the end of the Putin regime,” said Applebaum, which is also a warning, since this will bring opportunities in the absence of follow-up mechanisms , but also risks.
What does it mean today to say that victory is the only way to peace in Ukraine?
“I think the only way the war can end – and I mean really end it and not start again after six months or a year – is if the Russians lose and realize they’ve lost. They must realize that the war was a mistake and cannot be repeated. In my opinion, they should at least be pushed back from the areas they have seized since February 24, better still from Crimea. They must see it as a disaster for their country. I think that cannot happen if there is no clear Russian defeat.”
A few days ago, Macron said Paris would support Ukraine until “victory”. Washington says it will stand by Ukraine for as long as necessary but appears to be avoiding the word “victory.” When asked repeatedly by a journalist whether the US would stand by Ukraine until victory, State Department spokesman Ned Price replied, “We want an independent, sovereign, prosperous, and self-defending Ukraine.”
“To help them when in doubt, I suspect the government doesn’t want to lock itself into red lines that require the war to end when circumstances on the ground may change. The reason they’re so vague — and sometimes insanely vague — is because they don’t want it to be in six months, “You said you’d only accept that particular outcome.” This is to give them the best interpretation. Government has been fairly constant, with almost everyone – from top management to civil servants – repeating that they are not telling Ukrainians what to do. I think there are probably also fears among some within the government: whether Ukrainians will regain their territory or not, or fears that the conflict will last for a long time. But if I repeat that the war will only end when the Ukrainians win and the Russians lose, then not because of warmongering: that’s the only realistic way».
How far can the Ukrainians resist?
“Frankly, they would resist until they were no more, for for them there is no form of surrender that does not involve death. They understand that if they are occupied by Russia, they will die and their civilization will disappear.
Do you see changes in Moscow?
“There are certainly signs of change. Putin did not attend the annual end-of-year conference, he was heavily criticized by the nationalist right, and opposition polls show changes in public opinion against the war, but we don’t know if this will have an impact on the country’s politics ».
January 7, 2023 (change January 7, 2023 | 08:05)
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