Everything depends on one man, Vladimir Putin. The nuclear option worries governments and ordinary citizens. American sources confirm they have increased “vigilance” but claim they haven’t found any signs yet
Western intelligence has three axes of action: the Kremlin, the nuclear dossier, and the land front. An investigation that mixes on-screen explanations, real or veiled threats, and movements.
Leadership: Are there internal ruptures?
Defeat in the East sparked the feud. Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov and the head of the security firm Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, dressed as the tsar’s couriers, attack the general staff: flanked by a chorus of military bloggers, they blame the defense. They are self-promotion, but also a way to shield the leader’s responsibilities, as Vladimir Putin would have forced fatal tactical decisions on regional commanders. Including failing to fold when possible under better conditions.
There is also no shortage of rumors haunting the Kadyrov-Prigozhin couple.
Do verbal disagreements hide inner fractures?
The allies want to find out. Moscow denies the evidence – there will be no invasion, he swore – and can turn night into day by ministerial decree. However, the losses are massive, the army is wounded in ranks and in reputation. So we expect a response, a diversion and action on the ground.
The nuclear option and the “invisible” risk
It worries everyone from governments to ordinary citizens. US sources confirm they have increased their “vigilance” and claim they have not found any signs for the time being. Experts discuss how concrete is the risk of using tactical nuclear weapons on targets or on the high seas, everyone has their own opinion with a graduated alarm scale: concrete risk, bluff, difficult to pass, we don’t know what we don’t know.
The problem is that they are systems that can be quickly deployed using conventional aircraft, guns and missiles.
It’s hard to say if it will happen.
Unless the attackers themselves leaked the warning. The espionage has turned on their antennas, is picking up communications, is watching, and maybe hoping for a lead from a well-connected mole. Spy satellites “plow” the ground, compare locations, look for “anomalies.” The New York Times writes that surveillance has increased around the Kaliningrad enclave as the existing bases could be the platform for a surprise.
In the end, the assertion that everything depends on one man, Vladimir Putin, always dominates. An obvious observation, but also a way to buy time.
The movements
Kyiv announces that the offensive will continue after the liberation of Lyman. The picture is more hermetic in the south – Kherson region – where the bastion of the occupiers holds. One day there will be a better understanding of how much it cost to attack strong positions. We’re thinking about today.
Adequate preparation, rapid movements, precise fire and determination of resistance were welded to the accurate intelligence of Allied intelligence. The German was added to the American.
The BND has continuously passed on data about enemy positions, depots and installations to the Ukraine. A “harvest” made possible by wiretapping and satellite imagery. Note: The coordinates would not be transmitted in real time but with a slight delay.
So in these hours, the alliance wants to assess the consistency of the Russian effort, the ongoing mobilization, the quality of the men and resources that continue to be sent from the motherland. Zelenskyy’s soldiers can attempt to take territory before the weather conditions worsen and Moscow has finished dispatching reinforcements. There can be a brake represented by the weight of the fight, by the need to hold one’s lines, by tactical cleverness. Observations mixed with hypothetical scenarios.
October 2, 2022 (change October 2, 2022 | 17:00)
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