Argentine politics is in turmoil. There are still five months to go before the primary elections, when the names of those who will run for the presidency in October will be known. The candidates of the two grand coalitions, the Frente de Todos – Peronist, now in government – and Together for Change – the centre-right, have the best chance of victory. But choosing a name has become a nightmare. On the Casa Rosada side, the dispute between President Alberto Fernández and his Vice-President Cristina Kirchner is blocking any possibility of a political agreement. In opposition, former President Mauricio Macri is delaying the definition of his eventual candidacy and fueling internal differences. So far, no important figures have emerged who can break the game of politics.
Fernández opened the legislature last Wednesday with sharp attacks on the Supreme Court, which he accuses of playing with its verdicts for the opposition, but without defining whether he is seeking re-election. Kirchnerism, which was withdrawing all support for him at the time, did not want him as a candidate and demanded his resignation. Fernández has decided to step up and warns that he will only be relegated if they present him with a better candidate. With Cristina Kirchner’s self-exclusion from the race since last December when she was sentenced to six years in prison and disqualified in a corruption case, the vacuum in Peronism is evident. There is no leader to top five points in the polls, a drought that has left the government on the brink of defeat.
Then on the horizon will appear the name of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, at the head of the third pillar of the Frente de Todos coalition. Massa embraced the Argentine economy because he was sure of his success. And because he gained the support of Kirchnerism, which clung to his character as the last card against the economic crisis. The minister’s mission is to prevent everything from exploding before the elections, so that Peronism has only a remote chance of victory. But it wasn’t easy for Massa. Inflation climbed to 6% in January and is already close to triple digits year-on-year. With each rise in the CPI, the electoral aspirations of the Frente de Todos fall a little further and the figure of Massa loses weight.
This week, however, the minister will regain some of the lost ground. On Monday, if all goes according to plan, he will announce an agreement to postpone about 16 trillion pesos of debt maturities until 2025. And on Wednesday he expects the International Monetary Fund to approve the revision of the $45 billion refinancing agreement concluded last January. Massa is confident that these two pieces of news will breathe new life into Argentina’s economy while saving his presidential project.
Everything will depend on what Cristina Kirchner does, the leader with the most votes in Peronism, with a floor of 25%. On March 11, the leaders accompanying them will hold a plenary session against the court “ban” to which Kirchner feels a victim. It will actually be a meeting where they will try to persuade her to run for either President or Senator. Fernández is the target to be destroyed. Andrés Larroque, a leader of Cristina Kirchner, warned Saturday that “the conditions are not right” for a presidential re-election gamble. “The moderate variant is out of stock,” he said.
Kirchnerism does not forgive Fernández for not doing enough to resolve the movement’s leader’s legal problems. The verdict last December ended with the relationship falling apart. When the President and Kirchner met in Congress Wednesday, they had not seen each other for eight months. Things are that bad.
The opposition is no better off. Only the head of government of the city of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, has started his candidacy for Together for Change in the presidential elections. He has ahead of the rightmost sectors of the coalition responding to Mauricio Macri. The former president plays the puppeteer who calls his troops to battle while maintaining the definition of his own candidacy. His electoral bet is not Rodríguez Larreta, but Patricia Bullrich, his former security minister, a defender of a strong hand against crime from extreme positions.
The leaders of the Radical Citizens’ Union (UCR) are also joining the fight, which already has a governor in the running, Gerardo Morales. Elisa Carrió, a perennial candidate, is also on the list of candidates. All of them are unwilling to drop out of the fray if Macri decides to run, much to the ex-president’s regret. The opposition sees itself as a winner and is living the primary elections in August as early presidential elections.
Argentines, meanwhile, are spectators of the misery of politics. The past week has been rich in examples. The 14 shots fired at a supermarket owned by Lionel Messi’s in-laws in Rosario sparked the most fiery anti-insecurity speeches and led the candidates in a procession into the country’s most violent city. The problems even created funny situations. On Thursday evening, journalist Esteban Trebucq of the news channel América 24 was walking the streets of Rosario in a bulletproof vest when he encountered Diego Santilli, Rodríguez Larreta’s deputy for the governor of the province of Buenos Aires. “Diego Santilli came here. What are you doing Diego, how are you? I swear it’s all coincidence,” said the journalist, looking at the camera. “It’s not allowed, I came to accompany [al alcalde de Rosario]’ the politician replied. Argentina is already in voting mode.
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