Argentina is facing one of the most uncertain elections in its recent history, with the economy turning into a minefield that the next president will have to disable. Whoever wins on October 22nd will face a very complex transition before his inauguration on December 10th. Unlike the last elections, three candidates – and not two – are competing for the head of state: the ultra Javier Milei, the economy minister Sergio Massa and the conservative Patricia Bullrich.
The Peronist Alberto Fernández, whose popularity was at its lowest point, decided not to run for re-election and handed over the official candidacy to Massa, who lost the battle against inflation – which is almost 140% year-on-year – but is aiming for victory the elections. It’s not easy at all. All polls predict a victory for the candidate from the far-right La Libertad Avanza party, which is stoking economic fears in its search for more support among the population and is accumulating legal action over his inflammatory statements. The winner must receive 45% of the vote, or 40% within 10 points of the second voter, who will be elected president on October 22nd. Otherwise, he will run against the second most voted candidate in the second round of voting on November 19th.
The candidate Javier Milei at a campaign event. Natasha Pisarenko (AP)
Milei, a member of parliament since 2021, is the protagonist of this election campaign. This ultra-liberal economist’s tough message against the political caste – which he describes as thieves, parasites and useless – allowed him to win the vote of millions of people fed up with years of economic and social decay and the candidate with the most Votes in the country will be primaries. on the 13th of August. He won in 16 of the country’s 24 provinces. Since then, Milei has continued to lead in voting intentions, although the failure of the polls in the previous elections leaves room for surprises.
The anti-establishment candidate grew through social networks, outside the media radar and the territorial network available to traditional parties. “There was never a Milei sign here, we didn’t see it coming, it came in through the window,” emphasized a representative of Villa 21-24, Argentina’s largest working-class neighborhood, during a tour days ago. Milei received strong support from the most vulnerable sectors traditionally associated with Peronism, but also from middle and upper class voters. His promise to cut public spending with a chainsaw does not deter citizens tired of living with inflation that eats up salaries.
Buenos Aires, controversial
In recent weeks, Milei has toured provinces he won in primaries without setting foot. This is the case in Salta, in northwest Argentina, where he received 50% of the vote. The economist ended his federal campaign there – which he dubbed the “freedom tour” – last Thursday before focusing last week on Buenos Aires province, the largest electoral district, accounting for nearly 40% of the vote.
Buenos Aires Province is the most disputed area. Unlike other regions that have brought forward their provincial and municipal elections, Buenos Aires will elect the president, deputies, mayors and provincial governor on October 22nd. Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof, who is up for re-election, received the most votes in the primary election and is confident of maintaining control of this important district.
Kicillof has the division of the opposition in his favor: there is no second round in Buenos Aires and the winner will be announced next Sunday. What works against him, however, is the economic situation, which is getting worse every week, and the scandals that have affected his closest team. His chief of staff, Martín Insaurralde, resigned from his position and his candidacy for councilor of the municipality of Lomas de Zamora after images were circulated showing him on board the luxury yacht Bandido in Marbella, accompanied by the model Sofía Clérici. The photos went viral a few days after a new rise in poverty in the South American country was revealed: four in ten Argentines are poor and one in ten does not even have enough income to buy food.
Both Milei and Bullrich hope to steal votes from him due to a scandal that Kirchnerist bases see as part of a dirty campaign against them and that opponents brand as a new example of corruption, while cases against Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner are pending, Advance payment.
The economy, the focus of the campaign
Massa, second in the polls, is trying to avoid a vote exodus from the right to Milei, from the center to the dissident Peronist Juan Schiaretti and from the left to Myriam Bregman, one of the prominent speakers in the presidential debates.
With no success to show after a year at the helm of the Palacio de Hacienda, Massa also fears the impact that the recent explosion in Argentina’s economy will have at the ballot box: the abrupt devaluation of the peso in parallel markets. In early October, a dollar was exchanged for 800 pesos on the streets of Buenos Aires, but the U.S. currency reached a ceiling of 1,050 pesos before falling below 1,000 pesos on Thursday, the last day of business in Argentina.
Sergio Massa during the presidential debate.AGUSTIN MARCARIAN (Portal)
Four trading days remain before the Oct. 22 election and the government is expected to order new police raids to clamp down on activity in the informal market, the only market that operates without restrictions. It will be more difficult to stop the new price increase due to the recent currency devaluation. After record inflation in September of 12.7% monthly and 138.3% year-on-year, inflation is expected to be even worse in October. The inflation spiral is the tip of the iceberg of major macroeconomic imbalances in a country with a budget deficit, a major currency problem, a foreign debt that it cannot pay and no reserves at the central bank.
Bullrich is looking for a comeback
Bullrich appears to be caught up in a polarized battle between Massa and Milei. Macrista’s former security minister has taken too long to stitch up the wounds inflicted during her intense internship with Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. The Together for Change (JxC) coalition saw itself as the winner of the elections a year ago, when Milei was considered a candidate without votes outside of Buenos Aires. It has taken JxC two months since the primaries – and sees itself third in the polls – to show unity and introduce Rodríguez Larreta as Bullrich’s future chief of staff this weekend. Bullrich also had to deal with the mutual flirtation between his mentor, former president Mauricio Macri, and Milei.
The candidate Patricia Bullrich with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, this Saturday.CRISTINA SILLE (Portal)
The conservative candidate, who is the least qualified in the economic field, made some mistakes during the campaign that could cost her dearly, but she has improved since the second presidential debate, when she targeted Massa and Milei equally. She wants to position herself as a representative of responsible and predictable change, compared to the leap into the unknown led by the Ultra candidate. The most traditional voters are on their side, as is much of Argentina’s business community. On the other hand, those who see her as the continuation of a government that began an economic decline that worsened under Fernández’s leadership are turning their backs on her.
It is also unknown whether the leak of audio recordings of Carlos Melconian, whom Bullrich chose as his economy minister, will have any impact when he reaches the Casa Rosada. In the published fragments, Melconian can be heard influencing and harassing a state employee. “They are a total lie,” the economist defended himself on television this Saturday. Bullrich initially assured that these were fake audios created using artificial intelligence, but later changed his version: “They are completely composite audios, decontextualized, assembled from, I don’t know where.”
The candidates still have a week to try to convince the electorate, especially the 30% of the population who abstained in the primaries. While Massa and Bullrich try to get closer to Milei with their last bullets, Milei will do everything he can to avoid them. At stake is the presidency, but also half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate. If the results in the primaries were repeated, none of the three forces would have their own quorum – the ability to call a session – in the chambers and Fernández’s successor would remain in limbo, waiting for the second round in November.