With three days to go until the Argentina primary, there is an unprecedented silence on the streets of Buenos Aires. A climate as mild as this southern winter without cold. The violent death of Morena Domínguez, an 11-year-old girl who was the victim of a robbery, has left a country unconscious as it faces one of the most uncertain elections in its 40-year democracy. No one knows what impact Morena’s case will have on the elections. The campaign closures of the main political forces were planned for this Thursday, but all presidential candidates have canceled their election rallies due to the events. Most have remained silent on social networks and have not given interviews.
On Wednesday, just before 7:30 a.m., two thieves attacked Morena and stole the backpack she was carrying on her way to her primary school in Lanús, a municipality in Buenos Aires near the Argentine capital. In the struggle, the attackers pushed her to the ground and fled on a motorcycle. Morena died shortly thereafter, already in the hospital, as a result of the stroke she suffered.
That Thursday, a crowd gathered outside the doors of the family home to say goodbye to the minor and to accompany the father, Hugo Domínguez, grandparents and siblings. Later, after the funeral procession, dozens of people marched to the cemetery amid hugs, tears and applause.
Lanús has almost half a million inhabitants and is governed by the opposition coalition Together for Change. The provinces, on the other hand, are in the hands of the Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof. After Morena’s death, critics no longer distinguished between party membership. Mayor Néstor Grindetti was accused by neighbors of failing to lead the community to chair the Independiente football club and campaign for the governorship of Buenos Aires. Kicillof’s security minister, Sergio Berni, has been criticized for not ensuring the safety of citizens.
complicity of the police
The residents of Villa Diamante, the Morena neighborhood, revealed in front of the cameras the daily violence they suffer. A teacher said she had been attacked in the area days earlier. A mother added that she did too. It was an “announced tragedy,” repeated several interviewees. Neighbors denounced the state’s neglect and the complicity of the security forces with some thieves that everyone seemed to know. They found her within hours. The suspects are two convicted brothers aged 25 and 28. They are arrested and charged with murder during a robbery.
Crime has stopped an election campaign monopolized by business. Discussions suddenly turned towards uncertainty. The presidential candidate who has most bet on the message of a strong hand against crime is Patricia Bullrich. Mauricio Macri’s former security minister (2015-2019) could add voices from people outraged by the attack on Morena, but who will also lose out if residents of the province of Buenos Aires decide to turn their backs on Grindetti, their gubernatorial candidate. In the latter case, it could benefit the candidate on the far right of Argentina’s political spectrum, ultra-liberal economist Javier Milei. Carambola would then see Bullrich’s internal JxC rival Horacio Rodríguez Larreta emerge stronger.
Polls have always shown Bullrich to be ahead of Larreta, but the gap has narrowed in recent weeks. According to the polls, together they would account for one in three votes, a percentage slightly higher than the total for the Peronist alliance split in the primaries between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and Social Leader Juan Grabois.
Adding to the last-minute definition of the undecided is the unknown of the impact this fact of insecurity will have in Argentina’s most populous province, where four out of ten votes are cast. It is also not known whether abstention will decrease or increase, which amounted to almost 30% in provincial elections in 2023, although voting is compulsory.
For more than a decade, successive governments have failed to respond to citizens’ demands. Argentines have seen their wages shrink in the face of skyrocketing inflation, which today stands at 115.6%, a 30-year record. The loss of purchasing power is the tip of the iceberg of socio-economic deterioration. Many work extra (always more precarious) and even then it is not enough to make ends meet. You travel worse. Early childhood education is worse. Even many families are eating worse. The fear of children being robbed on the way to elementary school is a new transgression. Milei drinks from this cocktail of anger and powerlessness, for which the polls predict almost 20% of the votes.
The voting ban begins this Friday and you vote on Sunday. When asked about the possible effects of Morena’s violent death, the politicians ask them to wait and see. Some supporters expect abstention to increase, while others expect it to benefit Bullrich or Milei. It was a hard blow to the social spirit. On Sunday we will see how the elections look like.
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