Candidate and Minister Sergio Massa welcomes Chinese Trade Minister Wang Wentao during a visit to Beijing on June 2.ARGENTINE MINISTRY OF ECONOMY (via Portal)
The war in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, the issue that has dominated international politics for six weeks, has been almost absent from Argentina’s election campaign, apart from some criticism of the official candidate and economy minister by the far-right Javier Milei, 53. Sergio Massa, 51, for what he sees as the Peronist government’s soft approach to the conflict. He responded with a striking gesture of his own: publicly criticizing an official State Department note censoring Israel’s invasion of Gaza and promising that if he were appointed president, he would designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. on-line. with the USA and the European Union.
Sunday’s presidential election is very open, with a large number of undecided voters and polls pointing to a draw with a slight lead for the underdog Milei. The Peronist won the first round with 37% compared to his rival’s 30%.
There is little doubt that a victory for Milei, who defines himself as a liberal anarcho-capitalist, could, at least dialectically, represent a real earthquake for foreign policy. Observers estimate that with Massa there would be continued politics in international relations, albeit with a hardening of tone towards problematic allies such as Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela. The candidate that Peronism presents on this occasion is more in the middle than the Kirchnerist executive.
Milei has made it clear that his preferred allies will be the US, Israel and “the free world” in general. Although he reduced the intensity of his proclamations and attacks after finishing second in the first round, he did not hesitate to criticize China, Argentina’s first trading partner, as communist and to announce that he planned to “lower the price” of the bilateral relationship to a superpower. Asian. One of his mantras is that the state is “a nuisance” and will therefore leave international trade in private hands, but analyst Carolina Zaccato, a researcher at the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), warns that these words “make a big mistake “ means knowledge of how international trade works, since it is states that set tariffs, exemptions, sanitary and phytosanitary standards, etc. Whether he likes it or not, in order for Argentines to export their products and services, the next president will be forced to coordinate “with the rulers and economic ministers of countries of opposite political sign.”
A giant replica of a 100 dollar bill with Milei’s face in the center, during the conclusion of the Ultra candidate’s election campaign in Córdoba, Argentina, November 16, 2023. Sebastián López Brach
Jorge Castro, a veteran analyst, agrees that if Milei emerges victorious, in the case of China, “reality will undoubtedly prevail, because international relations are not an ideological or doctrinal issue.” “What is at stake is a very real one Problem.” Massa, the official candidate, used the last election debate to summarize this tangible issue in one number: two million jobs would be at risk.
Both experts also recall that China has become Argentina’s lender in recent months.
The Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro has already experienced what the inevitable burden of realpolitik brings with it. When he took office in 2019 and realized what was at stake, he quickly put aside inflammatory rhetoric against Beijing and even paid an official visit to Xi Jinping.
For analyst Castro, a Milei victory would mean “the end of Mercosur,” the bloc that Argentina forms with Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, and the end of strategic relations with Brazil. Zaccato, also a professor at Britain’s University of Saint Andrews, believes that the ultra-milei is likely to “exacerbate the deep impasse in which Mercosur finds itself, with the risk of falling into insignificance.” However, in a more optimistic forecast, both do not exclude that it serves as an impetus and promotes a debate focused on “the renewal of the bloc and …” [en] We aim for greater liberalization of intra-bloc trade and promote a common export strategy for highly interconnected industries, such as the automotive industry between Argentina and Brazil.” 80% of Argentina’s automotive sector exports go to the neighboring country.
Castro emphasizes that Brazil is the other important trading partner and strategic political ally alongside China. A relationship that absolutely needs to be pampered. For Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with whom Milei announced he would not work before calling him a “communist and corrupt,” Massa’s victory would be a relief, the analyst says.
On the other hand, if Minister Massa wins, changes in foreign policy can be expected, but not radical ones. With the Peronist at the helm of the state, analyst Zaccato foresees “continuity in the renegotiation of debt with the IMF, continuity in relations with China, continuity in reaffirming the strategic link with Brazil.” Yes, new rhetoric is expected towards the rulers of Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela, says the expert, “with more references to the erosion of democracy and restrictions on human rights.”
And since this is Argentina, a country that puts two heads of state on the world map, there was also a lot of talk during the election campaign about Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the highest authority figure in the Catholic Church and the Vatican. The right-wing extremist Milei, raised as a Catholic and flirting with Judaism, mercilessly insulted Pope Francis. E 2020 accused him of being “the representative of evil on earth” and “a disgusting leftist.” In the last presidential debate, Massa asked his opponent if he planned to apologize to the pontiff. Milei said she had already requested them privately.
Argentines are saddened that Francis has yet to visit their homeland after a decade of pontificate. Massa has promised to ensure that a papal trip takes place in 2024. When asked in the debate, Milei replied: “If I have to apologize, I will. I even invite him to come to Argentina. “We will receive him with all the honors of a head of state and spiritual leader of the church.”
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