Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said on Sunday, January 28, that he had proposed that Azerbaijan sign a non-aggression pact until a comprehensive peace treaty is concluded between the two hostile neighbors in the Caucasus.
“We have submitted to Azerbaijan a proposal for a mutual arms control mechanism and the signing of a non-aggression pact if the signing of a peace treaty is delayed,” Mr. Pashinian said during his speech on the occasion of the Army Day in Armenia. He also said his country, a long-time ally of Russia and which fears military moves by Azerbaijan against its territory, needed to review its security arrangements.
“We need to review our strategic thinking on security and diversify our relationships [internationales] in this area,” said Mr. Pashinian. “We are ready to buy new and modern weapons, and in recent years the government has signed arms purchase contracts worth billions of dollars,” he added.
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Azerbaijan denies having any territorial claims against the former Soviet republic. But the two countries fought two wars in the 1990s and in 2020 over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which was finally recaptured by Baku's forces in September, leaving tens of thousands dead. Since this complete reconquest, almost the entire Armenian population of the region – more than 100,000 people – has fled to Armenia.
Russia's loss of influence
Azerbaijan's victory marked the end of the dispute between the two countries, but many observers remain cautious about the progress of the negotiations as disagreements and sources of tension between the two countries have accumulated over thirty years. Armed incidents still occur regularly at the border.
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For several months, multiple rounds of negotiations conducted separately by Russia, the European Union (EU) and the United States failed to produce any results. The region's traditional arbiter, Moscow, monopolized by its offensive in Ukraine, has lost its influence and the trust of its Armenian ally.
On December 7, the two countries nevertheless committed to taking “concrete measures” to “normalize” their relations. Less than a week later, they exchanged prisoners of war, a first step toward normalizing relations. This gesture was hailed as a “breakthrough” by the EU, the US, Turkey and Russia, the two major regional powers. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev estimated on January 10 that the “conditions” for signing a peace treaty with Armenia have been “created,” assuring that he does not want a “new war.”
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