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BEIRUT — After a week that saw a suspected Israeli assassination attempt in Beirut and a U.S. airstrike in central Baghdad — sparking fears of a larger regional war — many were concerned about Hasan Nasrallah's speech on Friday.
But the leader of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militant group and political party, had a somewhat surprising message for Israel and the United States, suggesting that Lebanon could be open to border negotiations with Israel – but only after a ceasefire in Gaza.
There have been almost daily shelling attacks in the border area between the historic enemies since October 7, when Hamas militants stormed Israel, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping about 240 others. The attack triggered a swift and brutal response from Israel, whose intense bombardment of the Gaza Strip killed more than 20,000 Palestinians in less than three months, according to Gaza's health ministry.
Hezbollah was one of several Iran-aligned militant groups in the region that supported Hamas and launched attacks on border towns in northern Israel. More than 120 Hezbollah fighters and a dozen Israeli soldiers were killed in the fighting; Tens of thousands of civilians were displaced on both sides.
Israelis fear a new war with Hezbollah on the Lebanese border
The violence raised alarm in Washington, where officials feared that a miscalculation could open a dangerous new front – one that would draw Israel into a war of a different kind, against a more capable and professional force than Hamas.
To address growing tensions, President Biden's senior energy adviser Amos Hochstein was deployed to Lebanon in November and to Israel this week. In the months before October 7, Hochstein had examined the possibility of resolving the decades-long border dispute between the two countries.
For the U.S. envoy, reaching an agreement wasn't as far-fetched as it sounded, as he brokered an agreement between Israel and Lebanon in 2022 to define their maritime border, putting an end to 11 years of icy negotiations.
According to a report in the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper al-Akhbar last week, Hochstein tried to revive border talks during his visit to Lebanon. Officials in Lebanon confirmed to The Washington Post that Hochstein had raised the issue.
Nasrallah, always a cryptic and long-winded speaker, did not mention the demarcation by name on Friday, but analysts said its significance was clear.
“We now face a historic opportunity to completely liberate every inch of our Lebanese land,” he said in his live televised address, adding that Lebanon now has a “real opportunity” to set in motion an equation that Any Israeli violation thwarts Lebanon's airspace and seas. In a complaint submitted to the UN Security Council on Friday, Lebanon accused Israel of using its airspace to carry out attacks in Syria.
“But of course,” Nasrallah continued, “any talks at this level, any negotiation, any discussion will only take place or lead to a result after the end of hostilities in Gaza.”
Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the leader was signaling at a moment of high tension that Hezbollah was ready to pull back from the brink and eventually negotiate a border agreement with Israel.
The process could take years, Hage Ali said — and would require real concessions from Hezbollah in exchange for Israeli withdrawals from contested areas — but Nasrallah “tried to show some kind of good faith in his willingness to commit to the long term. ” Procedure.”
Nasrallah quickly made it clear that Hezbollah, which calls itself “The Resistance” against Israel, is in no way making peace with its historic enemy. He referred to the more than 90 days of fighting in southern Lebanon and praised the soldiers killed in the conflict.
US attack in Baghdad raises specter of wider regional war
He also repeated a promise from his speech on Wednesday, pledging retaliation for Tuesday's suspected Israeli attack on a building in Dahieh, a neighborhood on the outskirts of Beirut, in which senior Hamas leader Saleh Arouri was killed along with six other Palestinian militants .
While Nasrallah tends to be vague about how and when Hezbollah will strike back against Israel – “at the right place and at the right time” is a popular expression – he said on Friday that the response to Arouri's killing was already underway .
“We cannot remain silent about a dangerous threat because that would mean that all of Lebanon would be at risk,” he told his supporters.
But behind the hubbub, analysts saw a shift in messaging.
Amal Saad, a lecturer at Cardiff University who follows Hezbollah closely, said the group was signaling to Israel that it was “willing to go all the way” towards a final border settlement if a ceasefire takes effect in Gaza.
“It's a message to Israel and perhaps to the US, because they are the one who is brokering these talks and can push Israel to a ceasefire,” Saad said. Highlighting the possibility of drawing a border was also a hopeful message aimed at the beleaguered Lebanese public, said Saad, who was fearful of war and mired in a years-long economic crisis.
Nasrallah referred to this dire situation in his speech on Wednesday, saying the group had so far avoided war because it had “taken into account the Lebanese situation and national interests.”
Despite signs of de-escalation, Nasrallah again warned that if Israel went to war against Lebanon, the group would fight “to the end and without inhibitions.”
The message to Washington, Saad said, is that the longer the war lasts, the more the United States stands to lose in the Middle East – “not just everything that affects Israel, but also its broader regional role, which has also suffered.” Punch.”
“This blow is irreversible.”
Mohamed El Chamaa contributed to this report.