The photo, showing a man in combat fatigues posing on a river ferry next to Russian military equipment, was posted on Russian social media on October 10. Three days later, a video that appeared on the same account appeared to show the same ferry and equipment.
“And we’re moving,” says the man identified as Makar Teplinskiy from eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk region in the video. Later, a voice can be heard from the off asking: “Who are you showing this to?”
The ferry appears to be part of an ongoing Russian withdrawal of soldiers and equipment from the right bank of the Dnieper in the southern Kherson region, where Ukrainian forces are gradually advancing. The video was identified and located by RFE/RL using geolocation, satellite imagery and surrounding landmarks.
The results, from Russian service from RFE/RL and schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian service, highlight the increasing pressure on Russian forces, who have been beaten by Ukrainian troops advancing south. Experts say the advances are likely to lead to an attempt to retake the city of Kherson itself – the only regional capital to have fallen to Russian forces since Moscow launched a full-scale invasion on February 24.
If the city is recaptured, it will be a major tactical victory for Ukraine – and an embarrassment for Russian commanders and President Vladimir Putin.
Negative pressure
For weeks, dating back to August, Ukraine had used precision weapons provided by the United States and other Western countries to attack Russian supply lines and command posts in Kherson.
These targets included many bridge crossings across the Dnieper River, including the Antonivsky Bridge, a key crossing linking the city of Kherson with the opposite bank. Russian forces have constructed a ferry crossing immediately adjacent to the damaged bridge, and there are at least two other ferry crossings used by civilians near Antonivskiy Bridge, as well as others used by the Russian military nearby.
More recently, Ukrainian artillery and rocket fire has turned into a ground offensive that has been documented by military observers and military bloggers – Russians and Ukrainians – pushing south along the west bank of the Dnieper, forcing Russian troops to retreat south and east of the Flow.
The Kherson effort ties in with an earlier offensive likely connected hundreds of miles to the northeast, where Ukraine stunned Russian forces and recaptured dozens of towns in the Kharkiv region and a key Donetsk region rail hub, Lyman.
The offensive in the east has slowed recently, although it is unclear whether this is due to the regrouping and resupplying of Ukrainian forces, or tougher Russian resistance, or even the shifting focus of Ukrainian forces to Kherson.
In recent days, amid Ukraine’s advances, there have been increasing signs from Russian officials and their local proxies that Russian forces are under pressure and commanders may be considering withdrawing completely from the west bank of the Dnieper.
In an unusual interview aired on Oct. 18, newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces, General Sergei Surovikin, said the situation in the Kherson region was “very difficult” and that the Russian military may be making “the most difficult decisions.” must Kherson.
It was not clear what Surovikin meant, although some observers speculated that it signaled a possible large-scale withdrawal of Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnieper.
By late October 19, the Ukrainian outposts were believed to be less than 40 kilometers (25 mi) from the village of Kozatske and the town of Nova Kakhovka, on opposite sides of the river.
On the same day, residents of the city of Kherson received text messages urging them to leave the city urgently, citing possible attacks by the Ukrainian army. Local residents also reported that leaflets reading “Save your family, move to the Left Bank” were distributed.
“The battle for Kherson will begin in the very near future,” said Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Russian-imposed administration for Kherson. said in a video. “The city of Kherson is turning into a fortress,” he said.
Another official, Vladimir Saldo, announced restrictions on civil travel in the region, and said that public sector employees such as doctors and teachers would move to the left bank of the river. He said between 50,000 and 60,000 people would be relocated and some would be sent to Russia itself.
“I think they are preparing the audience that they will lose the battle for the Kherson region,” said Yuriy Sobolevskiy, a Ukrainian official and first deputy head of the Kherson regional council. said current time. “That means they are preparing their population for reports of defeats,” he said, referring to the Russian proxy authorities in the region.
Geolocation of ferries
Ukraine’s attack on the Dnieper crossings has forced the Russian military to rely heavily on makeshift pontoon bridges and even makeshift ferries assembled from parts of pontoon bridges.
The photo and video identified by RFE/RL were published by Teplinskiy on Russian social media site VK.
Archived social media reports show that since 2015, Teplinskiy, as well as his father, had served in military units under the authority of the Russian-organized administration that controls the Luhansk region, which calls itself the Luhansk People’s Republic. Moscow-backed units from Luhansk and neighboring Donetsk have fought alongside regular Russian troops in these two regions, collectively known as Donbass, and in Kherson.
RFE/RL located the ferry crossing shown in Tepinskiy’s video to the right bank of the Dnieper, near Kozatske. The ferry goes to the mouth of the canal connecting the village with Nova Kakhovka on the left bank.
A series of satellite images obtained by RFE/RL from private company Planet Labs in the first week of October showed several ferry crossings at the location. The last time satellite imagery caught a ferry carrying military equipment en route from Nova Kakhovka to Kozatske was on October 4.
On October 5, it should have returned to Nova Kakhovka with a full charge. On October 8 and 12, satellite images also show the movement of empty ferries to the right bank. One of those crossings was in all likelihood the one filmed by Teplinskiy and posted to his account on October 13.
Another video posted by Teplinskiy on Oct. 13 includes metadata pointing to a house he was staying at in Nova Kakhovka and video of an apparent birthday with other military personnel, taken around the same time.
Teplinskiy did not respond to messages from RFE/RL asking for comment.
Written by Mike Eckel based on reports by Mark Krutov of RFE/RL’s Russian Service and Kyrylo Ovsyaniy of Schemes. Current Time’s Aleksei Aleksandrov contributed to this report