As the first snow fell over Ukraine last week, the Ukrainian army launched an attack on Russian positions around Kreminna in a renewed – albeit so far unsuccessful – attempt to retake the eastern city.
At the same time, Ukrainian special forces were reportedly pushing back Russian troops on the islands and marshes that make up the Kinburn Spit, a strategic peninsula on the left bank of the Dnipro River near annexed Crimea.
Ongoing heavy fighting on the southern and eastern fronts suggests major military operations will not abate as the weather worsens and temperatures drop below freezing – despite predictions by some observers that the conflict could slow by the end of the year .
“I don’t expect a significant drop in Ukrainian ground operations in the winter,” said Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst at Poland-based Rochan Consulting.
If the ground finally freezes, Kyiv could even provide an opportunity for fresh attacks – particularly in the contested eastern regions where wet and muddy terrain is currently impassable to wheeled vehicles.
“The ideal time for a lightning strike in Ukraine is when the ground is frozen solid,” said William Alberque, defense analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Kyiv has been trying to maintain its momentum after Russia ordered an embarrassing withdrawal from the city of Kherson earlier this month.
At the same time, Russian forces appear to be trying to consolidate their positions amid political pressure for another offensive.
“Both sides will be willing and able to launch ground attacks,” Muzyka said.
Meeting of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Kyiv. President of Ukraine
“On the one hand, Ukraine has dynamism and the ability to continue; On the other hand, Russia has access to a huge pool of manpower through its mobilized reservists.”
According to Muzyka, Ukrainian forces are likely to turn their attention to the Zaporizhia region and the northern part of the Lugansk region.
While Kyiv is eyeing further military advances, there is no sign that Russian military commanders expect fighting to slow down over the winter months.
Russian forces have attempted to consolidate positions in recent weeks, digging in in southern Ukraine and struggling to hold strategically advantageous positions.
“Russia is preparing defensive positions and trenches, especially in the south around Zaporizhia and in the Kherson part [region] they’re occupying, so I don’t have a feeling they think the war is going to let up,” said Dara Massicot, a defense analyst at the US-based Rand Corporation.
Defenses are being erected even in regions relatively distant from the current fighting, including annexed Crimea and Russia.
“On the territory of Crimea, fortification works are being carried out,” Crimean Governor Sergei Aksyonov wrote on social media last week. And pictures shared on Tuesday by Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, showed the excavation of deep trenches and concrete pyramids placed along key roads.
Moscow has won some modest military victories around the small town of Bakhmut to the east this month – a prize which, if seized, would give Moscow forces the opportunity to attack the major Ukrainian cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Winter conditions will present both armies with a range of challenges – from the need to convert vehicles to adapting to artillery ranges – according to Sam Cranny-Evans, a military expert at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute.
And the intense cold – which can drop below minus 30 degrees Celsius in parts of Ukraine – could negatively impact morale of both armies.
“Frost and hypothermia are real possibilities in Ukraine,” Cranny-Evans said. “Cold Soldiers can suffer a reduction in morale and cognitive function.”
Defense installations are being built in the Belgorod region of Russia. t.me/vcfadkov
Many analysts seem to agree that Ukraine has the best chance of moving forward in the winter months if it uses Western shipments of gear and warm clothing.
In particular, the lack of foliage in winter means Russian forces have less cover, allowing Ukraine to make better use of their long-range artillery systems.
“Ukraine is ready for a winter fight,” Alberque said.
But experts are also quick to point out that Russia’s reservist mobilization this fall has brought tens of thousands of new soldiers to the front lines — and the Kremlin is likely to push its generals toward military success after a string of defeats.
“Russia has great personnel potential after the withdrawal from Kherson,” said Muzyka. “We see 150,000 to 200,000 Russian men being trained right now.”
And Russia probably will rising up his rocket fire on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure – a campaign that has already resulted in power outages and heating problems for millions of civilians in cities across the country.
Some analysts are predicting that Moscow could regain the upper hand as the winter progresses.
“At the beginning of winter, Russia is at its most vulnerable point,” Massicot said. “But over time…the dynamic could change.”
Russian generals, according to Muzyka, could even consider a new offensive in the first half of next year.
“Sooner or later we will see major Russian advances,” he said.