Residents of Bishkek have seen an unusual sight in recent weeks: the streets of the Kyrgyz capital are filled with tens of thousands of educated men with European traits: Russian citizens who are preparing for President Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists. for their war against the Ukraine breakout. The Kyrgyz people and government welcomed them with open arms.
Many other Eurasian cities such as Tbilisi (Georgia), Baku (Azerbaijan), Yerevan (Armenia) and Almaty (Kazakhstan) are also seeing an influx of Russian evaders. While Russian citizens have been moving to Eastern Europe and Western Asia since the February invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s first large-scale mobilization since World War II has turned a steady stream into a torrent. The reason for this is simple: none of these former Soviet republics – in Russia, they are often called “near abroad” – require entry visas for Russian citizens. These countries, long dismissed by Russians as reservoirs of cheap labor, now see Russia’s brain drain as an opportunity to attract the skilled workers they desperately need.
Immediately after Putin announced the mobilization, lines formed at checkpoints along all of Russia’s borders with the former Soviet republics. At the “Upper Lars” border crossing, on the Russian-Georgian border, there were so many cars lined up that you had to wait up to four days to cross.
In the three weeks since Putin began enlisting, 700,000 people have left Russia. Earlier this month, Kazakhstan reported that 200,000 Russian citizens had entered the country since 21 September. Georgia reported that the number of Russians entering the country increased by 40-45% to 53,000 over the same period. And the European Union’s border and coast guard agency Frontex reported that 66,000 Russians entered the EU in the last week of September, up 30% from the previous week.
Not surprisingly, Russian emigrants are already transforming their host countries.
So far, the Russian Defense Ministry has not required the governments of Georgia, Kazakhstan and other countries to extradite Russian defectors and recruit evaders who have crossed their borders. However, it is questionable whether this lenient policy will last if the Russian military continues to suffer from acute staff shortages.
Meanwhile, Russian emigrants in Central Asia and those planning to emigrate use Telegram channels as their main source of information. The most popular channels include “Moving to Kazakhstan” (34,000 subscribers), “Moving to Uzbekistan” (26,000 subscribers) and “Welcome to Kyrgyzstan” (22,000 subscribers). Russian journalist Maria Maksimycheva, who moved from St Petersburg to Tashkent this spring and runs a Telegram channel about life in Uzbekistan, described the benefits of moving to Central Asia: “Great community support for newcomers, a booming economy, rapid development, a warm climate, a comfortable life.”
Not surprisingly, Russian emigrants are already transforming their host countries. With hotels and B&Bs already overcrowded, rents are skyrocketing. Some tenants were forcibly evicted from their apartments in favor of better-paid Russians.
However, the understanding of locals in former Soviet countries welcomes newcomers. For their part, Central Asian governments were quick to recognize that attracting highly qualified Russian professionals, particularly Russia’s much-vaunted tech elite, could boost their economies and improve their education systems.
Many of the people fleeing Russia today belong to the country’s intellectual elite.
For example, Kazakhstan is doing its best to attract Russian emigrants. The country offers a five-year visa to foreigners working at the Astana Hub Industrial Park and exempts them from almost all taxes. It also provides business development grants of up to $50,000 and free 12-month office rentals. Uzbekistan is also issuing three-year visas, giving tech professionals access to all social services and the right to apply for permanent residency.
Kyrgyzstan is also bidding for new entrants, granting Russian exiles “digital nomads” status, which allows them to work without permission, obtain instant personal identification numbers and enjoy streamlined services from the Ministry of Justice and tax authorities. According to Economy and Trade Minister Daniyar A Mangeldiev, the aim is “to create favorable conditions for the resettlement of such people in the Kyrgyz Republic”.
It is certain that the wave of migration will only be temporary. Many Russian emigrants, especially those who left their jobs and found no new sources of income abroad, are likely to return to Russia when they feel safe there. But those who can work, earn money and feel comfortable in exile will not be in a hurry to return. And, of course, there are also people who don’t want to live in an isolated country like Russia today. Some have already bought houses in Bishkek, others have applied for Kyrgyz citizenship.
Many of the people fleeing Russia today belong to the country’s intellectual elite. If the war in Ukraine leads to a permanent brain drain, the Russian economy will suffer even more than it has before. The country’s best minds will continue to look for a new home abroad, and their former Soviet compatriots will be happy to help.
© Project Union
Translated from English by Sandra Pontow