Before an hour
Wall Street has lowered China’s GDP forecast multiple times this year. A bank has matched 6 times
International investment firms have changed their GDP forecasts for China almost every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.
The US investment bank last cut its GDP forecast for China to 5% in July, from a previous 5.5%. That came alongside cuts by Citi and Morgan Stanley to 5% this month.
Read the whole story here.
— Evelyn Cheng
Before an hour
Inflation in Malaysia was 2.4% in June, the lowest level in 16 months
Malaysia’s inflation rate was 2.4% in June, the fourth straight month of decline and the lowest since April 2022 at 2.3%.
The country’s inflation rate has been in a downward trend since August 2022, with the inflation rate declining for eight months and remaining stable for two months.
Malaysia’s statistics agency said June inflation was mainly due to price increases in restaurants and hotels, as well as gains in food and non-alcoholic beverages.
— Lim Hui Jie
3 hours ago
Japan’s business expands for seventh straight month: au Jibun Bank
According to flash estimates from au Jibun Bank, Japan’s business activity has increased for the seventh straight month.
The country’s composite purchasing managers’ index came in at 52.1 in July, unchanged from the previous month.
The services PMI slipped slightly to 53.9 from 54 in June, while manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory and the PMI fell to 49.4 from 49.8.
— Lim Hui Jie
5 hours before
Australia’s business activity is shrinking for the first time since March
Business activity in Australia’s private sector fell for the first time since March, mainly due to a slowdown in services activity.
The composite purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.3 from 50.1 in June, according to Juno Bank’s flash estimate.
The services PMI slipped below the 50-point mark to 48 from 50.1 in June. In contrast, manufacturing activity recorded a more modest decline at 49.6 compared to 48.2 in June.
A PMI above 50 represents an expansion of the sector, while a PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
— Lim Hui Jie
4 hours ago
New Zealand’s trade balance falls in June as imports fall
New Zealand’s trade surplus fell to just NZ$9 million (US$5.43 million) in June, down from a revised figure of NZ$52 million the previous month.
On a yearly basis, exports of goods rose 1.3% to $6.31 billion in June, while imports fell 14% to $6.3 billion.
The country’s statistics agency said the increase in exports was mainly due to a rise in dairy products, while a drop in petroleum products mainly contributed to the fall in imports.
— Lim Hui Jie
5 hours before
CNBC Pro: Bank of America says European oil majors are “close to bottoming out” – and names its top pick ahead of earnings
Bank of America believes Europe’s major oil stocks are “close to bottoming out” and cites the start of earnings season this week as a turning point.
The Wall Street bank dubbed its earnings “Big Oil Top Pick” and expects them to rise 30% over the next 12 months.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
– Ganesh Rao
5 hours before
CNBC Pro: China’s earnings season has only just begun. Here are some winners to check out
Fundamentals are shifting in their favor in some Chinese equity sectors.
According to HSBC, profits are shifting towards industrials, consumer discretionary and staples – and away from materials and energy.
Investors could also get some answers on macro policy in the coming days at a meeting of Chinese leaders, the Politburo, due to take place later this month.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Evelyn Cheng
5 hours before
Australia’s business activity is shrinking for the first time since March
Business activity in Australia’s private sector fell for the first time since March, mainly due to a slowdown in services activity.
The composite purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.3 from 50.1 in June, according to Juno Bank’s flash estimate.
The services PMI slipped below the 50-point mark to 48 from 50.1 in June. In contrast, manufacturing activity recorded a more modest decline at 49.6 compared to 48.2 in June.
A PMI above 50 represents an expansion of the sector, while a PMI reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
— Lim Hui Jie
Fri Jul 21, 2023 at 3:23 pm EDT
Credit Suisse advises caution beyond the three-month horizon as recession risks remain
A number of market signals suggest the broader market recovery could stall later this year, said Andrew Garthwaite, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse.
“Beyond a 3 month view, we would be much more cautious because: 1. Markets keep making new lows in a recession (average 11 months into it). The yield curve, senior loans officer survey and money supply are consistent with a recession,” Andrew Garthwaite, the firm’s global equity strategist, said in a note to clients on Friday.
“We are also concerned that wage growth will become more resilient (implying that core inflation in the US services sector will rise and therefore the magnitude of the market-priced rate cuts will not materialize in 2024 unless there is a recession,” Garthwaite said.
— Sarah Min
Fri Jul 21, 2023 2:52 pm EDT
According to FactSet, the earnings season started underperforming
According to FactSet’s John Butters, early returns are slightly below average for this earnings season.
Here are some key stats from Butters’ note summarizing the first full week of second-quarter earnings season:
- Earnings per share surprise: 75% of S&P 500 companies reported an upside surprise, below the 5-year average of 77%.
- Earnings vs Estimates: S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates overall by 6.4%, below the 5-year average of 8.4%.
- Outlook: Earnings decline for the S&P 500 in 2023 is -9.0%, using FactSet’s “blended” method, which combines realized and forecast results. This would be the largest earnings decline reported by the index since the pandemic-hit second quarter of 2020 (-31.6%).
– Jesse Pound
Fri Jul 21, 2023 11:56 am EDT
Wall Street is watching Barbie
Come on Barbie let’s go Mattel?
Analysts have been keeping a close eye on the toymaker’s shares ahead of the much-anticipated premiere of the film, based on the iconic doll, this weekend. It’s an important moment for Mattel as the company tries to prove it’s capable of turning its intellectual property into blockbusters. And analysts are also watching to see if other businesses, including cinemas and retailers, can benefit from the rising, rosy tide.
CNBC Pro subscribers can see some of the stocks Wall Street is watching for trends related to the film here.
— Alex Harring
Fri Jul 21, 2023 8:09 am EDT
Regional bank stocks are on track for their best week in more than two years
Regional banks were higher in premarket trade on Friday, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up more than 9% since Monday.
This puts the KRE on track for its best week in more than two years, as the ETF gained 9.78% in the week ended January 8, 2021.
See grafic…
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF.
Western Alliance, PacWest and Citizens Financial have all been soaring so far this week, with gains of about 25%, 24% and 13%, respectively. The KRE needs to end the week up more than 9.06% to match the Jan. 8 reading.
—Brian Evans, Gina Francolla