“We have to look at the poor performance of metropolitan Quebec,” fears the chief economist of the National Bank (BN), after a year marked by labor shortages and delays in automation that have damaged our businesses.
“Full-time employment growth in Quebec has been disappointing. We are talking about 16,000 jobs out of 60,000 jobs in the last 12 months, so only 25% full-time jobs, compared to 84% in the rest of Canada,” observes Stéfane Marion, chief economist at the National Bank, in an interview with the Journal. (BN).
In his opinion, Montreal's poor performance was to blame. It points to a meager growth of 1% (+24,000 jobs), while in Toronto it was 3.6% (+123,000 jobs).
Stéfane Marion has been chief economist and strategist at the National Bank of Canada and National Bank Financial since 2008. Photo provided by National Bank
“If we want to achieve stronger growth in Quebec, Montreal has to do better. “It’s disappointing,” analyzes the BN’s chief strategist. Fortunately, the labor shortage has eased somewhat, he says.
“There are approximately 175,600 job vacancies in Quebec in the third quarter of 2023. Compared to the same quarter of 2022, this number fell by almost 70,600 (-28.7%). This decrease leads to a decrease in the vacancy rate (the number of vacancies expressed as a percentage of labor demand), which rises from 6.1% to 4.3%,” points out the Institut de la Tourisme du Québec.
Automation required
Over the past year, factory closures, such as the symbolic closure of 994 workers in Vallée-Jonction, have hurt entire communities. In this case it would have been necessary to invest $40 million to make it more technological.
A year ago, Guy LeBlanc, CEO of Investissement Québec (IQ), warned in an interview with the Journal that we needed to work harder to urgently robotize our SMEs. IQ had launched a $2 billion effort to accelerate this critical shift.
“We are seeing a slowdown in the labor market. The pressure is less,” said Emna Braham, director general of the Institut du Québec (IDQ). Photo provided by the Institut du Québec
“We didn't invest much when things were going well, when we had good economic growth and interest rates were low. However, today automation is more expensive,” estimates Emna Braham, director general of the Institut du Québec (IDQ).
“In certain regions and sectors where shortages are more acute, we are seeing a decline in job vacancies ahead of job cuts, particularly in hospitality and manufacturing,” she adds.
“The labor shortage has pushed many companies to speed up their technological processes,” also notes Simon Bousquet, vice-president of Quebec at Mitacs, an organization that increases productivity in the country through internships.
Flexibility in hiring
According to Max Trudel, operations manager at the recruiting platform Evolia, flexibility in hiring has become increasingly important. Sometimes we have started hiring three people for one position to provide flexibility to each of them.
“There is still a shortage, but we are no longer in panic mode,” estimates Max Trudel, operations manager at Evolia. Photo provided by Evolia
“There are now many who hire in shifts. We see many people who have more than one job, sometimes for money, sometimes by choice. People's lives are more fragmented. “We are no longer in metro work-sleep mode,” he emphasizes.
“The shortage has led to original initiatives,” says Annie Boilard, president of Réseau RH, a human resources consulting firm.
She has more and more clients who want to know how to retain their employees while they were previously looking to hire.
Stepan Arman, senior sales manager at Indeed, compiled his website data for Le Journal and found an explosion in visits from foreign candidates for job openings in Quebec. Photo provided by Indeed
Stepan Arman, Senior Sales Manager at Indeed, feels the interest of candidates from other countries in our open positions.
“More than 14% of clicks on our job offers come from abroad, compared to 6% before the health crisis. “There are a lot of companies that are looking internationally because they just don't have the ability to fill them,” he concludes.
1) A decrease in job vacancies
“The number of vacancies is declining. “This is a sign of a slowdown,” notes Guillaume Desnoyers, recruiting and human resources specialist and senior partner at Desnoyers Executive Search. “In the world of work, however, we are far from panicking,” he analyzes. Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to be 5.4% in 2024, compared to 4.2% in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Institut du Québec (IDQ). By 2031, the proportion of people aged 65 and over will reach 25%, compared to 21% in 2022, and the proportion of people aged 20 to 64 will decline, so the shortage will continue.
2) Criticized employment programs
In recent months, more than $294 million of public funds have been poured into employment programs without any clear indicators to measure their effectiveness, Le Journal reveals. These are the Recovery Assistance Program through Improved Training (PARAF) and the Program for Requalification and Support in Information and Communications Technologies (PRATIC). Quebec paid for the candidates' training without seeing whether or not they subsequently worked in their new field of employment. The minister promised to correct the situation after our questions.
3) More than 1,142 media job losses due to GAFAM
687 at TVA. 250 on Radio-Canada. 125 to Information Coops. 70 at Metro, which filed for bankruptcy. 10 in The Gazette. According to a compilation by 24 Heures, the monopolization of the advertising pie by GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) has hurt newsrooms in Quebec. While Google has agreed to pay $100 million a year, Meta, Facebook's parent company, has stubbornly refused to enter into a similar agreement. The social network has been blocking access to news since August. Last June, Le Journal told the story of a professor who went on a crusade against these digital giants.
4) Immigration work – immigration deadlines
“Quebec had around 471,000 students, workers and asylum seekers on its territory in the third quarter of 2023, which is almost 30,000 foreign students (+ 23%) and 91,000 foreign temporary workers (+ 83%) more than in the same period of 2021,” it notes Institut du Québec (IDQ). Of the 27 occupations with labor shortages, 11 have occupational regulations that limit their access to immigrants, according to IDQ. Last October, Ottawa extended measures from October 30 to August 30, allowing up to 30% foreign workers in construction.
5) Youth work
Last summer, Labor Minister Jean Boulet managed to unanimously pass Bill 19, which sets the minimum working age at 14 and prevents young people aged 14 to 16 from working more than 17 hours a week while in school. Hefty fines ranging from $1,200 for the first offense to more than $6,000 to $12,000 are planned, which could dampen the enthusiasm of certain employers. The law provides exceptions for newspaper delivery, childcare and even tutoring.
6) Building reform
Although construction activity could decline by 3% next year, demand remains strong, according to the Commission de la construction du Québec (CCQ). To speed up the pace, Minister Boulet is preparing a reform to shorten the time it takes to build infrastructure. Accelerated construction training will also give the industry a boost. Between September 2018 and September 2023, industrial investment exploded by 84.6%, estimates the Quebec Construction Association (ACQ). From 2022 to 2023 alone, this is an increase of 18.4%.
Key figures for 2023
- Average unemployment rate: 4.4% (4.3% in 2022)
- Jobs created: 101,000 (131,000 in 2022)
- Full-time: 63,000 (92,000 in 2022)
- Part-time: 38,000 (40,000 in 2022)
Source: Institut du Québec, note that for 2023, these are the first 11 months of the year, as December data will be released on January 5th. For 2022 this is the annual average.
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