«What the Kremlin spokesman (Dmitry) Peskov said is irresponsible. The use of nuclear weapons would be tragic not only for Ukraine but for the whole world. But we cannot rule out anything in this situation. We have not attacked any country, we are only defending our country». This is what Ukraine’s ambassador to Italy, Yaroslav Melnyk, said in an interview with Sky tg24 this morning. But is a nuclear attack by Russia really possible?
Is a nuclear attack really possible?
After ordering the alerting of Russia’s nuclear deterrent system on February 27, three days into the conflict, Vladimir Putin last night issued another troubling warning to Westerners. “In Russia we have a concept of internal security, and it is public. You can read all the reasons why nuclear weapons are used explained Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in an interview with CNN . In the event of an existential threat to our country, nuclear weapons can be used according to our concept». An alarm first sounded by Joe Biden, who spoke of a “Putin has his back against the wall”.
Where would it be launched
Peskow’s words came after Christiane Amanpour asked him whether the Russian president ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in connection with the Ukraine conflict. Quoted by the New York Times, Ulrich Kühn, a nuclear weapons expert from the University of Hamburg and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the chances as “small” but “increasing” that Moscow could decide to use “small” nuclear weapons tactics, that is, less powerful than the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Primarily, according to his analysis, by throwing them at uninhabited areas, not Ukrainian troops, for demonstration purposes. “It’s terrible to talk about these things commented Kühn but we have to keep in mind that this is becoming possible”.
The reaction and the consequences
United Nations SecretaryGeneral Antonio Guterres on March 14 did not rule out “the prospect of a nuclear conflict that was once unthinkable” but which “has now returned within the realm of possibility”. Analyzing the terms used by Peskov to advocate the possible use of the atomic bomb as a result of “an existential threat to our country” would suggest a possible response to an attack on Russian soil. That is, after a possible official NATO intervention in the conflict. A prospect we try to avoid, seen as the last real option. It is in this spirit that the continued refusal by European Union countries to establish a nofly zone in Ukrainian skies, which President Zelenskyy has urged, must be read. Moreover, the consequences of a nuclear attack in Ukraine would be devastating even for Moscow. Primarily for deploying a warhead in a country bordering Russia. Then, even worse, for the reaction that would follow with a predictable counterattack of the same intensity, which at that point would really endanger the very existence of the Russian people.
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