How Russian troops move around Kyiv 1:13
Lviv, Ukraine (CNN) — Russia’s military says it has entered a new phase of its so-called “military special operation” in Ukraine, shifting its focus to the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
Is this regrouping a maneuver to allow ailing Russian forces to regroup after suffering heavy casualties at the hands of the Ukrainian defenders, or simply a face-saving measure? Is Russia really shifting troops and equipment to focus on eastern Ukraine, where Moscow has recognized two breakaway republics?
It seems so on paper. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said a “planned redeployment of troops” around Kyiv and Chernihiv is taking place, a day after Russian negotiators announced that Moscow’s forces would take steps to de-escalate around those two cities. The general said Russian forces would regroup to “intensify operations in priority areas and, most importantly, complete the operation to completely liberate Donbass.”
US officials and military analysts have been rightly skeptical of Russia’s claims of de-escalation, with some observers pointing out that Russia’s shifting military objectives were intended to mask massive battlefield setbacks. But there are indications that Russian military activities in the east are increasing: Ukrainian authorities on Thursday reported heavy shelling of several Ukrainian cities, particularly in the Donbass regions of Luhansk and Donetsk and near the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.
Kharkiv was heavily shelled, look at the pictures. 0:40
Intensified attacks in eastern Ukraine
In a statement on Telegram, Oleh Synyehubov, the head of the military administration of the Kharkiv region, said: “In the last day, Russian troops struck 47 times with artillery, mortars, tanks and strikes in the areas of Piatihatky, Oleksiyivka and residential area of Kharkiv district Traсtor Plant About 380 degrees and smerch shelling were recorded [artillería de cohetes]. In Saltivka the enemy damaged the gas pipeline, there was a big fire and rescuers worked to locate it.
Synyehubov said Russian forces inflicted an intense attack on Derhachi, northwest of the city of Kharkiv, killing one person and wounding three others and destroying a town hall building.
“The sharpest point [en la región de Járkiv] it’s still Izium where the fighting and constant shelling continues,” he said. “We work every day to open ‘green’ corridors [humanitarios]. But so far Russia hasn’t given us that opportunity.”
The Ukrainian military governors of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions also reported heavy shelling on Thursday as the Russian military appeared to be redirecting military efforts to the Donbass region.
“We clearly sense that the technology transfer is beginning [militar] in our direction,” said Serhiy Haidai, head of the military administration of the Luhansk region, in a televised address. “And when equipment and personnel are delivered, our enemies do nothing but shoot with greater density and power. Everything is already here: aircraft, artillery, large-caliber weapons, mortars … all settlements are being bombed.”
Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of the military administration of the Donetsk region, told Telegram that Russian forces continued shelling overnight in the central part of the region.
“In Maryinka, Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka, the enemy again used white phosphorus shells,” he said, referring to ammunition banned or restricted by international law in populated areas. “Eleven injured civilians from Maryinka Municipality, including 4 children, were taken to Kurakhiv Municipal Hospital.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia has never violated international conventions when asked to comment on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim that Russian forces used phosphorus bombs, the media reported.
Pentagon warns Russian troops may resupply in Belarus 6:36
Doubts about the morale of the Russian troops
Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement Thursday that Russian forces may regroup on the territory of Belarus, which was a base for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The statement said that the movement of Russian military equipment in Belarus was monitored “probably to regroup units as well as create a reserve to replenish losses in personnel, weapons and equipment of groups operating in Ukraine.”
External analysis indicates that Russian troops suffered heavy equipment losses and heavy casualties. The Russian military announced almost a week ago that 1,351 military personnel had been killed and 3,825 wounded in Ukraine, casualty figures that the United States, Ukraine and NATO say are a fairly small representation of actual troop losses.
Jeremy Fleming, director of Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), a British spy agency, speaking during a trip to Canberra, Australia, hinted that Russian troops’ morale is failing and that Russian President Vladimir Putin lives in an information bubble as well as in physical isolation, may not be aware of the magnitude of the problem for his military.
“We have seen Russian soldiers lacking in arms and morale, refusing to follow orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own planes. And while we believe that Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth about what is happening and what is happening, the magnitude of these mistakes must be made very clear to the regime.
On Thursday, Putin signed a decree to recruit 134,500 Russians to replace conscripts who leave the service.
The Russian Army has a mixed conscript and contract service personnel system, and the country is called up twice a year.
Putin initially claimed the conscripts would not take part in the war, but the country’s Defense Ministry later acknowledged that the conscripts were fighting in Ukraine and Ukrainian forces say they have captured a significant number of Russian conscripts.
A worsening of the humanitarian crisis
The humanitarian situation in many Ukrainian cities, particularly in the besieged port city of Mariupol in the south-east of the country, remains dire.
Hopes were raised on Thursday that buses carrying residents of Mariupol, which has been bombed non-stop by Russian forces for weeks, could depart through a so-called humanitarian corridor.
But the convoy was stopped at a Russian checkpoint in Vasylivka, a town between the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhia and the Russian city of Berdyansk, according to Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukraine’s minister for the reintegration of temporarily occupied territories.
Vereshchuk said that out of a pre-war population of more than 400,000, about 100,000 people remain in the city and need to be evacuated immediately.
“That means another 100,000 women, children, the elderly and the disabled who need our help and that of the world,” he said.
Ukrainian authorities say around 90% of the city’s buildings are damaged or uninhabitable after weeks of shelling.