Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) says its experimental Alzheimer’s treatment met the goals of a mid-stage study, causing AVXL stock to soar on Friday.
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In terms of measuring symptoms, Anavex said that patients receiving its pill, called Blarcamesine, showed a 45% slower rate of decline than the placebo group. However, critics questioned the company’s math and suggested that a subtraction problem might indicate that the effectiveness was much lower.
Chief Executive Christopher Missling says her view of the data is wrong.
“Stats don’t work that way for (effectiveness),” he told Investor’s Business Daily. “We don’t look at the average of all patients at the beginning and end. We look at every single patient from start to finish because that is what matters.”
Even as today’s stock market was generally lower, AVXL stock catapulted 35.9% to 12.05.
AVXL share: clarification of statistical questions
Anavex tested blarcamesine in a 48-week study involving 509 patients with early Alzheimer’s disease.
Researchers assessed treatment outcomes using a 70-point scale called the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognition. Before treatment, patients scored 27.62. Blarcamesine scored 30.36 after treatment.
On average, the change over 48 weeks was 2.26 points, Anavex shared in its presentation. Here, the company’s critics say the average change should have been 2.74 points — subtracting the week 48 score from the pre-treatment score. This change in subtraction would have resulted in an effectiveness rate of 33%.
Missling says statistics don’t work that way.
“The correct calculation is each individual patient,” he said. “This is not a simple calculation of end of study minus baseline that you can do on your calculator. It is a calculation for each individual patient.”
Using the same symptom scale, Anavex said patients who received blarcamesine were 84% more likely to show at least a half-point improvement in cognition.
On a scale that measures activities of daily living, blarcamesine recipients were 167% more likely than placebo recipients to achieve an improvement of at least 3.5 points. The company didn’t give an exact number of patients who improved. Still, AVXL stock soared.
Anavex said the drug is generally safe and well-tolerated. The most common side effect associated with the experimental Alzheimer’s treatment was dizziness.
Stocks reverse a downtrend
Anavex will release more data as it becomes available, Missling said.
“We literally received it on Wednesday,” he said. “We had no way of calculating more than this top-line data, and we are required by regulation to inform the public about the data because of its materiality.”
Shares hit a 10-month high in November but have since plummeted. AVXL stock reversed that downtrend on Friday after the company’s presentation late Thursday.
“There’s so much more data behind that to come,” Missling added. “To date we have no further information.”
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
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