In one of the most intriguing showdowns in recent memory, filmmaker Greta Gerwig’s Barbie is poised to start well ahead of Christopher Nolan’s atomic bomb drama Oppenheimer. But the biggest winner could be cinema if the two films work out over the long haul.
The two July tent poles – dubbed “Barbenheimer” on social media – officially aired on Thursday, three weeks before they detonated in theaters over the weekend of July 21-23.
From Warner Bros., Barbie could fetch a whopping $70-80 million, if not more, according to sources with access to tracking data (and there’s plenty of potential). Warners is more cautious and proposes $60 million. Based on Mattel’s legendary toy doll series, the film stars Margot Robbie in the title role and Ryan Gosling as Ken.
A Barbie film had been in development for years before moving from Sony to Warners. But in recent weeks, the film has blossomed into a social media and marketing (not to mention merchandising) phenomenon. And hip, girl-heavy titles can morph into summery box-office bonanzas, like Warners’ “Sex and the City” or Universal’s “Mamma Mia!” franchises. Barbie will almost certainly celebrate Gerwig’s biggest release to date (previous films include Lady Bird and Little Women).
Universal and Nolan’s Oppenheimer is targeting a domestic debut in the $40 million range. For Oppenheimer – a three-hour R-rated adult drama – having legs could be far more important than it was on opening weekend. Still, $40 million would be one of the acclaimed filmmaker’s lowest openings. And if you discount Tenet, which started at $20 million in the midst of the pandemic, it would be the lowest start for the acclaimed filmmakers since The Prestige ($14.8 million) in 2006.
Nolan has been #2 before; In 2014, “Interstellar” launched behind Disney’s “Big Hero 6” at $47.5 million en route to a long theatrical run and grossed $701.7 million worldwide.
In Oppenheimer, Cillian Murphy plays the role of J. Robert Oppenheimer, believed to be the father of the atomic bomb, alongside a cast of stars including Emily Blunt and Matt Damon
Paramount and Skydance are opening Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Part 1” domestically on July 12, and the event photo will still be an awe-inspiring force as Oppenheimer and Barbie unfold. (There’s even a scenario where Oppenheimer finishes third in opening weekend behind Barbie and Mission: Impossible.)
The Three Poles, along with Indiana Jones and Dial of Destiny, need to be successful this weekend if summer earnings are to increase from 2022. On Thursday, Cruise urged his fans to support the theatrical experience by seeing Indy, Barbie and Oppenheimer (in addition to Mission, of course).