Greta Gerwig’s Mattel-produced satire Barbie is expected to top the box office with a projected $110 million in US box office earnings.
The $145 million budget film, the first of recently formed Mattel Studios to star Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, is likely to triumph over Christopher Nolan’s biopic Oppenheimer as the contested release date sparked a much-vaunted rivalry called Barbenheimer”.
Barbie distributor Warner Bros. is more conservative with its estimates, aiming for a US$75 million launch. However, analysts are expecting it to be as high as $110 million, with some even suggesting it could go as high as $140 million. Barbie is likely to break a record for the highest-grossing opening film by a woman director in the United States, currently held by Wonder Woman, which grossed $103 million.
Nolan’s $100 million film, starring Cillian Murphy as the so-called father of the atomic bomb, is slated to hit theaters this weekend in the US for $50 million, with at least $100 million worldwide.
Barbie opens in 4,200 theaters in the US, 600 more than Oppenheimer. Nolan’s film is also an hour longer, allowing for fewer screenings. The cinema chain AMC has announced that more than 40,000 people have booked tickets for both films on opening day.
“I’ve been tracking and analyzing box office trends and movies for 30 years and I’ve never seen anything like it,” Comcast analyst Paul Dergarabedian told IGN of the showdown.
While there have been a number of box office successes this summer, including “Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse,” there have also been more notable bombshells, including “The Flash,” which will forfeit at least $200 million to distributor Warner Bros. and with it the biggest is superhero flop in history. Other disappointments include animated adventure Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, belated sequel Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, racy comedy Joy Ride, Pixar’s Elemental and starry sequel Book Club : The Next Chapter”.
Last week, Tom Cruise’s $291 million budget sequel, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, launched in five days in the US for $78 million, down from the projected $90 million .
This summer’s franchise has yet to surpass April’s Nintendo hit Super Mario Bros., which has grossed over $1.3 billion worldwide. It’s the only film that year to gross over $1 billion.
According to Comscore, U.S. ticket sales are down 20% compared to the same period in 2019, before the box office was hit by the pandemic.