At a time when the industry is suffering from the historic double strikes of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA, the film industry is in for a massive box office weekend with the long-awaited feature film adaptation from Warner Bros./Mattel Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s three-hour World War II-era adult drama, Oppenheimer, reap a combination $260 million+ global launch.
Barbiewhich far exceeds Disney’s Little Mermaid ($95.5 million) in pre-sales, offers a crazy range of forecasts in the US $90 to $125 million. Warners calls for sure $75 million in 4,200 theaters, but its competitors are confident that this great comedy, starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, will generate excellent revenues. Barbie looks around the world $165 million, $60 to $65 million from 69 offshore markets, including France and Korea among the top markets on Wednesday, followed by Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia and across Latin America on Thursday, and then the UK and China on Friday.
Meanwhile, Universal’s first Nolan feature is on, boldly dated the same weekend as the toy story from the filmmaker’s former studio, Warner Bros $40 to $50 million domestically in 3,600 cinemas, with one more $45M abroad for a close $100M global start in the upper price segment. Hitting those numbers will be a smashing start to a three-hour talkative erotic film.
There are no Rotten Tomatoes scores for either title, but early Oppenheimer screenings show it’s captivating; Certainly one of the top contenders this Oscar season.
Many ticket buyers are already planning double features – with dinner planned in between. Number 1 chain AMC is so excited they’re reporting that over 40,000 of their Stub members have secured advance tickets to see both titles on the same day. Stars including Tom Cruise have taken to social media to say it’s a great cinema weekend, with talent from competing studios showing a mutual love for each other’s dishes.
It’s a turbulent time for the industry: there’s a struggle in the streets and a boom at the box office; At more than $5 billion, 2023 is already 13% up on the previous year. The hope is that SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP will come to an agreement to prevent post-pandemic box office returns from getting off track and impacting the theatrical release calendar and fall film festival premieres.
In the US/Canada, Barbie will be hosting fan previews at 500 locations on Wednesday – also known as “Barbie Blowout Parties”. On Thursdays, previews begin at 3,400 locations at 3 p.m. It will play in Dolby, PLFs, Dine-Ins and Drive-Ins, 9K total screens.
Meanwhile, she will not make her grand entrance in Japan until August 11 to mark the Obon holiday, while the Middle East has been postponed to August 31. The latter usually indicates censorship concerns. Barbie was banned in Vietnam. Great Britain and Australia could stand out.
Competitions here include the recent live-action film The Little Mermaid, which grossed $64 million in like-for-likes, and the 2015 live-action film Cinderella ($68 million). dollars in like-for-likes at today’s prices) and Mamma Mia! from 2018: Here We Go Again ($49 million) and even in 2008 on “Sex and the City” ($38 million).
Barbie as an intellectual property has appeal in many regions of the world, but we know that children in Asia did not grow up playing with the doll. Although the film hits theaters this weekend in China, we have virtually no expectations for it. Heavyweight local films are also hitting the market.
Does the Barbenheimer effect help? In general, it is expected to expand the market and is good news for cinema-going in general. It might even give Oppenheimer an extra boost (which in some ways might also benefit from being the last film to hold a red carpet internationally – one that attracted increased attention because of the stars leaving the event, like the SAG-AFTRA -strike was called). .
Barbie had a strong campaign internationally with positive societal responses and the music and fashion from the film being translated abroad. Talent has been to Australia, Korea, Mexico and London (only Berlin was absent due to the strike). The Mark Ronson-produced soundtrack, which features killer singles including Barbie co-star Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night,” has nearly 50 million views on her YouTube page.
Oppenheimer will have an exclusive three-week Imax appearance with Nolan shooting a combination of 65mm and 65mm large format film shots. There are also sections on analog Imax black and white photography for the first time. US previews begin at 5 p.m. Thursday for the film, with a cast led by Cillian Murphy, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Robert Downey Jr. and Florence Pugh. Murphy plays atomic bomb architect J. Robert Oppenheimer and Blunt as his wife, biologist and botanist Katherine “Kitty” Oppenheimer. Damon is General Leslie Groves Jr., director of the Manhattan Project, and Downey Jr. is Lewis Strauss, founding commissioner of the US Atomic Energy Commission.
The picture reaches most of the majors this weekend except for Korea and Italy. France in particular is the country where the Nolan film should excel. Australia, Brazil, Germany, Spain and Mexico will join on Thursday, followed by the United Kingdom on Friday. We understand that there are no final plans for Japan yet.
The competition here is Dunkirk, which debuted at $49.8 million in the same markets and at today’s prices. Note that 26% of the first weekend in Dunkirk came from the UK, while Oppenheimer will face Barbie there in this session.
Nolan and the Oppenheimer cast premiered the film in Paris last week, followed by the event in London.