The results of the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame voting are now known: Jim Leyland was elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee and the BBWAA selected Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer. We have discussed the inductees adequately elsewhere and will do so again in July when the Hall of Fame induction ceremony takes place. Here I will discuss the remaining voting results.
Wagner is still a year away
The subheading there works in two ways. Billy Wagner is probably just a year away from making it in Cooperstown, as he received 73.8% of the vote this time (with 75% needed to enter the Hall of Fame) and history tells us that the player almost every time this means next year. Of course, it's also Wagner's tenth year on the ballot, so he'd better make it. The 2025 ballot will be Wagner's last, regardless of whether he passes or not.
I have explained here how strongly the story is connected to Wagner.
A-Rod and Manny look cooked
This was the eighth year that Manny Ramírez took part in the election and he received 32.5% of the vote after receiving 33.2% last year. Given his two PED suspensions compared to the fate of players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, there is simply no realistic way for Ramírez to even come close to being drafted. In all likelihood he will not even get 40% of the vote, let alone a majority, and certainly not 75%.
I knew Alex Rodriguez wouldn't come close in his first year on the ballot and assumed he wouldn't get much traction in his second, but it seems like his status has been cemented with this election. It rose from 34.3% to 35.7% to 34.8%. Yes, not only is he lacking momentum, he actually regressed in third grade. The electoral body is constantly evolving towards a younger group, but this is a very slow moment and he only has a maximum of seven years left. Seeing a decline before it even hits 36% certainly seems like a death knell for its chances.
I could be wrong about A-Rod. Seven years is a long time and who knows what could happen there that could change the views of those willing to change their minds. He has one of, say, 10-15 best statistical ledgers in MLB history. Maybe it will get going next year or the year after, even if that doesn't seem possible at the moment.
I'm not wrong about Manny, though. He's done.
Jones and Beltrán with winnings are trying to avoid a plateau
Andruw Jones rose from 58.1% to 61.6%. It's a win, albeit a modest one. The pro-Jones camp would have liked to see a bigger leap forward here in its seventh election year. A fair number of candidates who reach this range and still have at least three years left end up in the Hall of Fame, but there's always the possibility of hitting a voting plateau. Generally, a portion of the electorate is firmly set on a “yes” or “no” vote for a player, while a certain percentage remains open to changing their mind. We'll see the needle move a little bit, but eventually the staunch “no” people will stand firm and that's it. Will it come for Jones before he hits 75%? Next year is a big year for him.
Carlos Beltrán recorded more than modest gains: from 46.5% in his first year to 57.1% in his second. I predicted that there would be a segment of voters who wanted to punish Beltrán for his involvement in the Astros' 2017 sign-stealing scandal by simply not voting for him on the first ballot. Of course, there will be those who want to punish him by never voting for him, and here again there is always the possibility that he will hit a wall before he reaches the high bar that is 75%.
I mentioned the evolution of the Electoral College above, and Beltrán has eight years, if he needs it, to provide a push for a more accommodating electorate. They say, “Time heals all wounds,” and while that’s not true, perhaps it is true for Beltrán. We will see. If a Beltrán fan asked me how it will turn out, I would say to be cautiously optimistic that he ultimately makes it through the BBWAA vote.
As for Jones, probably a little less optimism, but similar sentiment.
Utley with a decent first performance
Chase Utley was polling at about 40% (via Ryan Thibodaux's Ballot Tracker), and while many candidates fall slightly behind between public and private ballots, Utley officially got 28.8% of the vote here on his first ballot.
It's hard to know what to make of this. We've seen newcomers like Larry Walker, Scott Rolen and now Todd Helton start well below 30% and end up in the Hall. Rolen and Helton also rose remarkably quickly. We also saw many candidates who started in the 1920s and never made it to Cooperstown.
While I don't agree with this line of thinking, there are still a fair number of voters whose Hall of Fame status on the “first ballot” is held to a higher standard than anyone who makes it on the second ballot or later. That means it's possible that voters didn't vote for Utley just because he was a first-time voter and they didn't see him as an absolute standout in their inner circle.
Ryne Sandberg needed three ballots to get into office, although he debuted with 49.2%. Craig Biggio also needed three votes, although he was at the top in his debut with 68.2%.
Something to watch for next year: Contemporary second basemen Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler both debut on the ballot. They have worse resumes than Utley. Will her presence on the ballot help Utley when people compare second basemen?
It is possible. It's also likely that there will be a jump in the second year. Next year is a big year for Utley's candidacy. I would be optimistic if he sees his vote share increase to around 40. Everything about it is bad.
Wright survives
The group of first-year candidates this year had two surefire Hall of Famers in Beltré and Mauer, one in Utley who was sure to draw a lot of controversy and stay on the ballot for a while, and eight obvious one-and-ones. Dones. Then there was David Wright. I went through his case and came to no conclusion. I assumed that if he didn't get 5% of the vote there was a good chance he would be disqualified from the election. In the end he received 24 votes, which is a good 6.2%, so he's sticking with it.
I'm not sure he can ever reach 75%, but that's a start. He has a chance.
Rollins, Hunter with modest winnings
Torii Hunter just hangs in there. In his fourth year of election, he received 7.3% of the vote, compared to 6.9% the previous year. There's still not much momentum, but the gain is notable after being close to five percent in its second year (5.3% in 2022).
However, Jimmy Rollins might actually have some momentum. It was his third year in office and he went from 9.4% to 12.9% to 14.8%. He still hasn't seen a big jump, but an upward move is always a plus. Taking inspiration from a fellow former Philly infielder, Rolen went from 17.2% to 76.3% in four voting cycles. Rollins has seven chances left, assuming he doesn't fall below 5%.
Five players below 20% lost votes
- In his seventh year in office, Omar Vizquel went from 19.5% to 17.7%, marking a new low for him. It's hard to imagine him getting above 25% again, let alone making the Hall of Fame.
- In his sixth year, Andy Pettitte dropped from 17% to 13.5%. His chances of promotion are better than Vizquel's, but I would say that the proverbial signs are now in place.
- In his fifth year, Bobby Abreu dropped from 15.4% to 14.8%. I thought there was a chance he would be one of those internet darlings that gets more and more popular every year; Instead, his wall appears to have been hit in his mid-teens.
- In his fourth year, Mark Buehrle dropped from 10.8% to 8.3%. It seems more likely that he will drop out of the election than make a strong push for entrenchment.
- In his second year, Francisco Rodríguez fell from 10.8% to 7.8%. I was wondering if the increased push for Wagner (6th all-time in saves) would help give K-Rod (4th) a leg up, but so far that doesn't appear to be the case. He is not far from being eliminated from the electoral list.
Farewell, Mr. Sheffield
This was the tenth year on the ballot for all-time great slugger Gary Sheffield, who simply couldn't overcome his PED connections and/or poor defense with enough voters. In many areas of life, the electoral body showed a lot of love for Sheffield together. Because how often does a group of people vote 63.9% for someone, only to get the answer “no” when asked if they are someone. However, that's how Hall of Fame voting works, as 75% of yes votes are required.
Sheffield is now one of the ten highest-rated players not to reach 75 in their final year.