No need to resort to fortune-telling: the offensive against Donbass announced by Vladimir Putin will be brutal. Ukrainians, who know this well, are urging the civilian population to flee to where the battlefield is supposed to be, where the outcome of the war that began on February 24 could be decided.
Since the announcements by the Russian command, we have seen a fairly effective shift in efforts, notes one of the French officers closely monitoring the course of the fighting. He and his comrades are grouped into several cells, one of which combines the Directorate of Military Intelligence and the Center for Planning and Conducting Operations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or within the observatory established by the Command Doctrine and Education Center (CEDC).
Funds used for a land maneuver
According to one of these specialists, one of the first lessons from this war is that the decision remains local. Hence the Russians’ extraordinary concentration in recent days on armor, artillery and attack aircraft for a classic land maneuver in the Donbass, partly in the hands of the Ukrainians: artillery curtain fire and then a massive tank attack. The plains of Donbass lend themselves to such a maneuver. This time they will not underestimate their opponents who have shown resilience, agility and redundancy and inflicted heavy casualties on them.
Military historian Michel Goya also sees a form of combat taking shape on massive depth fires followed by concentrated attacks by ad hoc divisions.
The Russian device is not yet complete, as the command made special efforts to ensure support for troops and strengthen logistics, the collapse of which in northern Ukraine cost the attackers a lot. However, the battle for Donbass started well. A Russian breakthrough attempt is under way from Yzoum towards Barvinkove and Sloviansk. Objective: to isolate five active Ukrainian brigades in one pocket. But the attackers would have been contained except for Dovhenke.
Once the Russian assault force is fully assembled and its support is in place, once the weather is milder and therefore conducive to Russian air activity and artillery support, the attack on the Donbass will be launched.
The Ukrainians, who deploy ten active brigades, are using this respite to strengthen themselves. They get new equipment, certainly too slowly in their eyes and while the rate of ammo consumption and equipment losses is higher than that of deliveries. They also improve the defenses of urban bastions that could surround and bludgeon Russian soldiers as good heirs to the Red Army. Unless they feel that the siege warfare (in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol) has cost them too much so far.
War in Ukraine: before the Russian offensive in Donbass, the flood of fire EXPAND