The differences between the Israeli prime minister and his Western allies over the future of the Gaza Strip are now clearly visible. Last week, Benjamin Netanyahu twice rejected any Palestinian sovereignty over the Gaza Strip or even the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Three questions for Denis Charbit, associate professor of political science at the Open University of Israel.
Published on: 01/23/2024 – 00:36
4 mins
RFI: Since the beginning of the Gaza war, Benjamin Netanyahu has had some uncertainty about the future he envisioned for the Palestinian enclave. Is this a clarification of his position?
Denis Charbit: Without doubt. Netanyahu may already be on the campaign trail. He wants to appear as the only one capable of opposing the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. He draws on the atmosphere that exists in his country today, which is extremely skeptical of anything resembling a peace process. With the divide having widened so much since October 7, Netanyahu believes he must present himself as the only one who can withstand international pressure. And in doing so he shows a disagreement with the American government, which in turn supports a political solution.
But in Israel this expression seems premature at best. For the entire right and the far right, October 7 is in some ways the nail in the coffin of any peace process. But the scale of the massacre and the methods of mass murder deter any Israeli from believing that peace is possible and near. And in the best case, some believe that it is necessary to go through a long transition period in order to find intermediate phases that, in the long term, do not preclude the creation of a Palestinian state, Palestinian sovereignty. But this cannot be done without the Palestinian leadership, which is currently completely absent.
Washington on Thursday, London this weekend, Brussels this Monday: Israel's allies expressed their disagreement after Benjamin Netanyahu's comments. Can Israel afford this diplomatic isolation?
This pause was predictable. Initially, the European Union and the American government supported Israel's retaliation since the first shot was fired by Hamas. But they would have liked the elimination of Hamas to take place quickly and with as few civilian casualties as possible. And the gap between the principled support of the Israeli operation, the lack of prospect of a peace process, even in the long term, and the political will on Israel's side is widening. This explains the somewhat firm positions. And as long as Netanyahu is in the virtual election campaign, with this kind of exchange of blows, with these skirmishes, the divide will only get worse.
But all of these statements refer only to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In this regard, I fully understand the impatience of Europeans who want this major crisis to open an opportunity for the resumption of a peace process. But if we put them in the regional context – Hezbollah in the north, the Houthis in the south and the Iranians in the east – then I think that the Europeans there are, for once, in line with the Israeli government and, more precisely, with the state of Israel and the Israelis. The whole problem is that they have Netanyahu as a partner and that's a kind of snake that's a little hard to swallow. Since coming to power, he has continued to thwart regional, European and American ambitions.
Are Israel's allies betting on a post-Netanyahu era?
I have the feeling that we in the European Union, as in the American government, are almost certain that the Netanyahu era is over. He is politically unable to accept the next day. October 7th was a very real shock to Israelis, who have been frozen ever since. But there will be a time when politics will regain its rights. And it is indeed the responsibility and perhaps the historic role of the two centrist ministers in the War Cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, to find a middle ground to pay more attention to the European Union while listening to Israeli opinion .
But Benjamin Netanyahu is also counting on a change of president in the USA. And that is the complexity of the current situation. He understands that he has to hold out for another ten months. And it is not excluded that the war will continue for some time, getting closer to the electoral calendar, he can hope that Donald Trump wins. And at that point, the whole structure we are building will turn out to be a house of cards that will collapse. It is obvious that Trump will come as no surprise and will likely support Netanyahu. So the whole challenge for the Prime Minister is to hold out for ten months before elections are called.
Western attacks against Houthis are reportedly taking place in Yemen's capital Sanaa