It’s a very different winter from what Vladimir Putin imagined after gas supplies were cut off due to European support for Ukraine. Europe is not freezing, supplies are full and gas prices have fallen all around 55 euros/MWh, the lowest level since September 2021 (well before the Russian invasion). Things turned out very differently when compared to the worst fears of the European Union, which had been vehemently discussing the price cap that was finally set at a for months 180 euros/MWh, which is more than three times the current market price. The Kremlin’s strategy of using methane as a weapon to blackmail Europe, hit its economy, divide it and eventually force it out of Ukraine has not worked. Not only. It backfired on the strategists. Because after an initial phase in which the price explosion more than compensated for the decline in export volumes, Moscow’s revenues are falling dramatically.
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