Beirut, Lebanon – A 10-country coalition led by the United States is unlikely to stop Yemen's Houthi rebels from attacking ships in the Red Sea, but both sides have an interest in preventing an escalation that could spiral out of control, they said Analysts told Al Jazeera.
Their attacks on commercial and military vessels that may be linked to Israel are aimed at pressuring Israel to end its war on Gaza, according to Houthi officials. The Houthi attacks have gained popularity domestically in Yemen, allowing the group to recruit new fighters.
“The Houthis will not stop what they are doing until the Israeli offensive in Gaza is complete,” Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, told Al Jazeera, “and even then they will likely continue for some time.” “
Israeli bombing and artillery fire have killed more than 20,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip since October 7th.
“Underrated” lever
On November 19, the Houthis took control of an Israeli-linked cargo ship called the Galaxy Leader and shortly thereafter released a sophisticated video of the ship's hijacking. Since then, it has become a tourist attraction for Yemenis. The group subsequently attacked numerous ships passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a narrow passage that leads to the Red Sea and on to the Suez Canal.
The Red Sea and Suez Canal account for 30 percent of global container ship traffic.
“The Houthis’ position in northern Yemen has placed them at a critical geopolitical bottleneck,” Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East-North Africa program at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera. “This has been underestimated by the international community in recent years.”
So far, no injuries or deaths have been reported from Houthi attacks. However, the impact on global shipping was still immense. At least 12 shipping companies have suspended transit through the Red Sea because of the attacks, including some of the world's largest: the Italian-Swiss giant Mediterranean Shipping Company, France's CMA CGM and Denmark's AP Moller-Maersk.
About 12 percent of the world's seaborne oil and eight percent of its liquefied natural gas flow through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, mostly to Europe. But other goods such as grain, palm oil and industrial goods are also affected by the attacks. Many companies instead travel around the southern tip of Africa, adding about nine days to their trip and costing at least 15 percent.
The answer
In response, the US has imposed sanctions on 13 suspected Houthis financial backers. And it assembled the 10-member maritime coalition to try to deter Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Other members include the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Seychelles and Bahrain.
Yemen's internationally recognized government, operating from Aden after nine years of the Houthis' devastating war, has condemned the attacks on the Red Sea as usurpations of its sovereignty. But it is in a difficult position because it does not want to be seen as a supporter of Israel, Nicholas Brumfield, a Yemen researcher, told Al Jazeera.
Meanwhile, Iran, a key backer of the Houthis, is wary of taking steps that could spread the war in Gaza across the region. However, Iran's influence over the Houthis is limited, experts said.
“They have some common goals with Tehran, but we should not overestimate Iran’s influence on the Houthis,” Eleonora Ardemagni, a research fellow at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), told Al Jazeera. “They have their own agenda.”
Palestinian support and mobilization
Before October 7, the Houthis came under pressure at home, including over unpopular government reforms and non-payment of salaries. But their support for the people of Gaza is very popular among Yemenis.
“They have been quite ideologically hostile to Israel for a long time,” Vakil said of the Houthis. “In particular, they seek to demonstrate the transnational implications of their views and demonstrate power and positioning.”
According to Brumfield, Houthi state media have announced more than 1,000 protests, boycotts or recruitment drives since the war began. After almost a decade of civil war, many people in Yemen are tired of fighting. But support for Palestine proved so popular that the Houthis were able to recruit new fighters who they could then use in the domestic war.
“They recruited a number of fighters with the promise that they would be allowed to fight in Palestine,” Brumfield said. “They said, 'You can fight in Palestine,' and then they used those forces against the Yemeni government stronghold of Marib.”
Some analysts say the Red Sea attacks could be partly a diplomatic strategy. In recent months, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have held a dialogue aimed at a long-term ceasefire, after a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in 2022 largely brought fighting to a halt. Saudi Arabia supports the internationally recognized government of Yemen. Tensions in the Red Sea and possible disruptions to oil trade are hurting most regional economies, of which Saudi Arabia is the largest.
“From where they sit, [the attack on shipping vessels] is an opportunity to raise the stakes against Saudi Arabia,” Vakil said. “What we could see is a kind of renegotiation.”
Red lines in the Red Sea
The impact on global shipping through Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea has prompted the United States and other allies to take action. But so far this does not seem to have deterred the Houthis.
“We emphasized that to everyone [the Houthi] “The operations are in support of the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and we cannot stand idly by in the face of aggression and siege,” Houthi spokesman Mohamed Abdulsalam told Al Jazeera on Monday. “As for the naval operations, they are in full swing and 12 hours may not go by without an operation.”
But despite the rhetoric, both the Houthis and the US have so far maintained some restraint.
On November 26, the Houthis fired two ballistic missiles that landed near a US warship. Brumfield believes the Houthis intentionally missed the warship.
Currently, the US coalition is more focused on defending ships traveling through the Red Sea by repelling Houthi attacks. “The U.S. doesn’t want to escalate this crisis either,” said Brew, the Eurasia Group analyst. The US has not yet fired back on Yemen, although the Houthis have fired missiles towards the Red Sea.
Changing this equation is not in the Houthis' interest. “They know they can’t cross that line,” he said. The Houthis do not want a scenario in which “the United States stops viewing the Houthis as the unpleasant but tolerable rulers of northern Yemen and perhaps actually commits to overthrowing them.”