(CNN) President Joe Biden said earlier this week he plans to speak to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping “soon.”
But before his staff even began planning the call, another meeting took shape: the Chinese government announced that Xi plans to travel to Russia for a three-day summit with President Vladimir Putin on Monday while Xi works to strengthen himself to present as a potential peacemaker in China Ukraine War.
In Washington, officials view Xi’s intentions with deep skepticism; China has refused to condemn the war, instead claiming that Moscow was provoked into invading Ukraine. After China announced Xi’s visit to Russia by saying he was traveling “for the sake of peace,” the White House worked to deter attempts to frame the Xi-Putin meeting as a peacekeeping mission, proposing that any framework offered by Beijing would be good for Russia and bad for Ukraine.
“In any case, as they begin to chart their agenda, we would like to express how concerned we would be about any proposals from (China) that would be… one-sided and reflect only the Russian perspective,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council.
He said such a Chinese proposal could include some sort of ceasefire that would merely give Russia a chance to regroup before retaliating.
“A truce is now effectively the ratification of Russian conquest,” he said.
The Putin-Xi summit itself came as no surprise to the White House, as there have been reports for weeks that such a meeting might take place. Still, deep concerns remain that the “borderless” partnership cemented by Xi and Putin in previous meetings could deepen in face-to-face talks.
And there are growing fears that further Chinese intervention in the conflict would fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics – or at least prolong the war at a moment when Western political appetites to support Ukraine are being tested.
Xi remains Putin’s best antidote to US-led attempts to isolate Russia. Even the International Criminal Court’s decision on Friday to issue an arrest warrant for Putin – which, among other things, was intended to make world leaders “think twice before shaking hands with him or having a chat with him.” Set the negotiating table” – didn’t seem to deter him from his support.
So far, officials have said there is no indication Beijing has made a final decision to provide lethal aid to Moscow’s war effort. But they have considered it, according to American officials who monitor the intelligence agency daily for signs that Xi is moving forward.
Next week’s meeting could provide a venue for such an announcement.
“That’s something we’re going to be watching,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said this week. “Obviously Russia has its own interests in drawing other countries into this conflict if it can, but our position is the same whether they meet or not.”
But some US officials say it’s possible the meeting could stave off any imminent lethal Chinese support to Russia amid efforts by Xi to portray the trip as a search for peace.
The concern among US officials isn’t necessarily that Chinese arms could help Russia win a decisive victory in Ukraine. Instead, there is concern that lethal aid from Beijing would delay the war in a way that would benefit Moscow.
A protracted war could also benefit China if American resources and attention are expended in Ukraine rather than in Asia, where Beijing has become increasingly more militarily confident. And although China has not provided lethal support to Russia up to this point, it has been willing to import large quantities of Russian energy, allowing Moscow’s tax revenues to soar over the past year – despite sanctions imposed by the US and its European allies.
Against this backdrop, Biden Xi has repeatedly warned against siding with Russia in the war, including during a phone call in March 2022 and when they met in person in Bali last November, their only face-to-face meeting since Biden took office.
Biden’s desire to keep lines of communication open with China — including through regular phone calls with Xi — is the government’s main goal in dealings with Beijing right now, according to officials, who say the risk of a military or diplomatic miscalculation is higher when the two sides are talking not.
But even those efforts have been derailed in recent months by the cancellation of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing due to the Chinese spy balloon crossing the US. American officials initially said the meeting would be postponed, but more than a month later, no new date is on the calendar.
US officials have also used their regular diplomatic channels to facilitate talks between Xi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, believing it would be useful to hear Ukraine’s perspective directly from him. Xi has not had a single phone call with Zelenskyy since the start of the Ukraine war.
“We think it is important that China has Ukraine’s perspective. General Patrick Ryder told CNN on Friday. “They illegally entered and occupied Ukraine. We hope President Xi and the Chinese government can benefit from understanding the precise implications of their support for Russia.”
However, it remains unclear when these talks could take place. White House officials said there had been no logistical arrangements to set up a talk between Biden and Xi. And there’s no question that the deep personal affinity between Putin and Xi has helped foster closer ties between their nations, as they both warn of an overarching American influence.
Before the war began, the two men issued a 5,000-word statement saying their relationship had “no boundaries.” Since then, China has provided diplomatic support to Russia, and the US has sanctioned a Chinese company for supplying satellite imagery to the Russian mercenary group Wagner.