President Joe Biden on April 14, 2022 in North Carolina, United States AFP (Source: AFP)
The United States and its allies warned that the new phase of the war in Ukraine would be protracted and would pose a challenge to Joe Biden, who must maintain Western mobilization and unity against Russia over time.
“We have to arm ourselves for a long fight,” said the American President during his visit to Poland in March.
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In Washington, there is no hiding a certain satisfaction with the development of the first phase of the conflict since Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
US intelligence expected Kyiv to fall soon, but the Ukrainian army, increasingly armed by Americans and Europeans, resisted, forcing the invader to turn his attention to the east of the country.
The US administration has mobilized a grand coalition to impose unprecedented sanctions on Russia that go beyond the European Union and NATO.
But with the new battle in eastern Ukraine, some American strategists worry that this joint effort could be starting to go off the rails.
If the war focuses on the Donbass region, far from Kyiv and NATO’s borders, Western unity could dwindle in the long term, a diplomat concedes. “It’s a challenge,” he told AFP.
Another official fears certain European countries, hit hard by sanctionsinduced inflation, may be tempted to ease the pressure.
“Horror Rise”
For now, that shouldn’t be the case.
“The battle that is being prepared promises to be fierce,” “between large armies, with tanks,” said former US ambassador to Kyiv William Taylor. “Like in World War II,” he told the AFP news agency.
“The Russians have shown their willingness to kill many civilians…so I think the sense of urgency and attention to Ukraine will not wane, but will ‘grow,’ analyzed Taylor, current vice president of the US Institute of Peace.
Marie Jourdain, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, confirmed that “the intensity of the fighting and the risk of escalating horrors in the coming weeks” should continue to unite the antiKremlin. But that could change if the war drags on and there is “a certain trivialization of images”.
In her view, “the great challenge” for the West would then be “to maintain unity and pressure against Russia” “in a context of growing disinterest” in public opinion, which could also grow weary of the “economic impact”.
For now, the United States and several European countries prefer to increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. And they have several options to achieve the goal.
“Pressure from Congress”
Americans are pinning high hopes on a seemingly unspectacular move: halting the export to Moscow of technological components vital to Russia’s military industry.
In the long run, Washington says, the Russian military will have trouble renewing its arsenal and missiles.
But above all, a European embargo on Russian oil or gas, as imposed by Washington, could change the situation.
Currently, the countries most dependent on Russian energy, such as Germany, oppose such a measure.
Behind the scenes, US officials believe that this measure, unimaginable just a few weeks ago, will finally be taken.
The final obstacle for the President of the United States is to continue supplying arms to Ukraine while avoiding the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia.
Meanwhile, Congress is urging him to go further. One of Biden’s closest allies, Democratic Senator Chris Coons, believes Washington should consider sending troops to Ukraine, a red line for the White House.
“Congress pressure is productive because the Biden administration is doing things it previously opposed,” said William Taylor. Indeed, despite its initial caution, the Pentagon has sent heavy artillery and helicopters into Kyiv.
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