President Joe Biden traveled to Europe on Wednesday to keep NATO allies and other European partners united against Russian President Vladimir Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.
With nearly a month of fighting – and Ukrainian forces unexpectedly putting Russia in a standoff – Biden and other world leaders will seek to hasten an end to the conflict.
They are being pressured to make announcements about new sanctions against Russia, humanitarian aid for refugees and extra support for Ukraine’s military.
Putin and China will stand by while Ukraine’s fate – and Russia’s place in the world – hangs in the balance.
And while Biden will draw a lot of attention this week, his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, also plans to talk — and possibly pressure — Biden and other NATO leaders.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks to the media about the war in Ukraine and other issues at the White House in Washington, DC March 22, 2022.
Shown whirlwind diplomacy
Biden will spend much of Wednesday traveling from Washington to Brussels ahead of a tumultuous day of diplomacy in the Belgian capital the next day.
On Thursday, he plans to attend an extraordinary summit of all 30 NATO leaders, where he will discuss deterrence against Russia and “reaffirm our ironclad commitment to our NATO allies,” according to the White House.
Biden will also attend a pre-scheduled meeting of the European Council – the European Union’s political body – and meet with leaders of the Group of Seven, or G-7, major industrialized nations.
During the meetings, Biden hopes to achieve “continued coordination and a unified response” toward Russia, the White House said.
Biden has made working in lockstep with Europe a top priority, sometimes withholding sanctions — such as against Russian energy — to maintain this show of unity.
People, mostly women and children, arrive at the Przemysl train station after boarding a train from war-torn Ukraine in Przemysl, Poland March 22, 2022.
He has also been meticulous in trying to avoid a major conflict by refusing to send American troops to Ukraine or support a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over the country.
Whether he will urge allies to confront Russia more directly – by sending more troops to the region, providing even more provocative military aid to Ukraine, or otherwise directly supporting Kyiv – remains to be seen.
However, one challenge he may face on Thursday is responding to Zelenskyy’s remarks to NATO leaders.
The Ukrainian leader has repeatedly captured the world’s attention with moving, sometimes blunt, addresses to national and international bodies. His direct demands are sometimes beyond the comfort level of Biden and other leaders, and he has not held back from naming and shaming those he believes are not doing enough to support Ukraine.
New sanctions and aid expected
Most major global summits come with important announcements or “deliverables” that are often the result of months of negotiations.
But in this case, “the main result is the journey and its symbolism,” said Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert and former ambassador to the Council on Foreign Relations.
But Biden and other leaders are also expected to announce a new “sanctions package” against Russia, including “strengthening existing sanctions to tackle tax evasion and ensure robust enforcement,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Tuesday Tuesday.
“One of the key elements of this announcement will not just focus on adding new sanctions,” Sullivan said, “but making sure there’s a concerted effort to fight against circumvention, against sanctions, against any attempt by a country to basically help Russia.” to undermine, weaken or circumvent the sanctions.”
The president will also have “an opportunity to coordinate the next phase of military assistance to Ukraine,” Sullivan said.
And Biden will talk to leaders about “longer-term adjustments to NATO forces on the eastern flank,” Sullivan said, referring to the United States and other NATO countries that are sending additional troops to countries bordering Russia, such as Poland , Estonia, Lithuania and Russia Latvia.
He will also announce “joint action to improve Europe’s energy security and reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas,” Sullivan added, without elaborating.
Firefighters are seen as smoke billows from a building of a research institute part of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine after a strike in northwestern Kyiv March 22, 2022.
Focus on millions of displaced Ukrainians, US troops
In Brussels, Biden will “announce further American contributions” to help the 3.5 million Ukrainians who have fled the country and the millions more who have been internally displaced, Sullivan said.
On Friday, the president will travel to Poland, where he will “close ranks with US troops” – he has deployed thousands there in response to the invasion – and meet Polish President Andrzej Duda on Saturday. Poland has taken in more than 2 million Ukrainian refugees.
“It’s the right place for him to see troops, see humanitarian experts and meet with frontline and very vulnerable allies,” Sullivan said.
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said this week that it “no plans‘ for Biden to travel to Ukraine and that the White House had ‘not explored that option’.
Putin, China is watching
Biden said Monday: “The only thing I’m confident about, knowing Putin fairly well – and I think another leader might know himself – is that he expected to be able to split NATO. He never thought NATO would remain resolute – remain fully and thoroughly united.”
“And I can assure you,” he told a group of chief executives, “NATO has never been stronger or more united in its entire history than it is today, in large part because of Vladimir Putin.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is shown during a meeting with Novgorod Region Governor Andrei Nikitin at the Kremlin in Moscow March 22, 2022.
In fact, Russia’s invasion has united NATO against itself. And a month of crushing sanctions has crippled Russia’s economy and largely isolated Putin.
Whether world leaders in Brussels decide to ramp up the pressure on Putin in a way that could further shift Putin’s calculus – and end the war, perhaps offering him a clear departure – could change the length and trajectory of the War determines conflict.
But it’s not clear that the diminishing number of options they have left could fundamentally affect Putin. Russian troops continue to loot Ukrainian cities and kill civilians, even though the Ukrainians prevented them from winning major victories and overthrowing the government in Kyiv.
And it’s not clear what that exit might be. “Putin has his back against the wall,” Biden said on Monday.
The White House has warned Russia against launching cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in the US. Such an attack could come in the next few weeks, though not necessarily in direct response to Biden’s trip, according to Tom Graham, an expert on Russia at the External Relations Council.
And China’s President Xi Jinping will also be watching. In a phone call last week, Biden warned him about the consequences of aid for Russia, according to the White House.
Sullivan told ABC News’ Elizabeth Schulze on Tuesday that the US had “not seen” China supplying military equipment to Russia since last week, as had been feared.
The extent to which Biden is able to get European leaders on board with possible penalties for China could also decide whether Xi decides to support Putin or stay out of the fight.