WASHINGTON. President Biden said Friday that the United States has intelligence evidence that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has made the final decision to refuse diplomatic offers and invade Ukraine, which Mr. Biden said would be “catastrophic and unnecessary.” war choice” in Eastern Europe.
Speaking from Roosevelt’s White House room, Mr. Biden said “we have reason to believe that Russian forces are planning and intending to attack Ukraine next week, in the coming days,” adding that “we believe they will target on the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, a city of 2.8 million innocent people.”
Asked if he thought Mr. Putin was still hesitant about the invasion, Mr. Biden said: “I’m convinced he’s made up his mind.” He later added that his impression of Mr. Putin’s intentions was based on “significant intelligence capacity.”
Nevertheless, Mr. Biden pleaded with Russia to “choose diplomacy.”
“It is not too late to ease tensions and return to the negotiating table,” Mr. Biden said, referring to talks scheduled for Thursday between Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken and Russia’s foreign minister. “If Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door on diplomacy.”
Hours before Mr. Biden’s speech this afternoon, pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine called for mass evacuations in two contested regions of the country, saying without much evidence that the Ukrainian military was about to launch a large-scale attack there. a statement that appeared to be aimed at provoking Russian military intervention.
Ominous messages from rebels in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been loudly picked up by Moscow, raising fears that Russia is setting the stage for an imminent invasion that could ignite Europe’s biggest conflict in decades.
The Russian-backed separatists’ call for an evacuation came as they accused Ukraine of a range of provocations, including shelling along the front line between Ukraine and separatist forces, and blowing up an empty car belonging to pro-Moscow news outlets. head of the regional security service.
Mr. Biden, who had just completed a video call with a dozen Western leaders, dismissed the allegations as lies concocted by Mr. Putin to inflame the situation on the ground and provide a pretext for war — something the United States and other European leaders have done. warned for weeks.
He called the explosion of a Ukrainian kindergarten a Russian-backed provocation. And he pointed to accusations by Russian separatists that Ukraine planned to launch a major offensive as evidence of Russia’s attempts to justify the military action with disinformation.
“There is simply no evidence for these claims, and it defies elementary logic to believe that Ukrainians would choose this moment, with more than 150,000 troops stationed at its borders, to escalate a year-long conflict,” Mr. Biden said.
The president’s comments are the clearest indication of how close the world could be to the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. He chose a highly unusual course, deliberately predicting the timing and parameters of the invasion despite the risk that he might be wrong.
“We shout loudly and repeatedly about Russia’s plans,” Mr. Biden said. “Not because we want conflict, but because we are doing everything in our power to remove any reason Russia can give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.”
The president did not say how the administration became aware of Mr. Putin’s decision, but two U.S. officials said the president’s assessment was partly based on new intelligence showing that nearly half of Russia’s 150,000 troops have moved from beachheads to battle lines and could launch a full-scale invasion. within a few days.
The forces include between 120 and 125 battalion tactical groups, down from the mid-80s at the beginning of the month. Some of these forces are Russian reservists that will make up the occupation force after the invasion, officials say. Officials requested anonymity to discuss government estimates.
Mr. Biden promised that the United States and its allies are united in imposing tough economic sanctions if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border. He said he also had a phone call with Democratic and Republican lawmakers, who expressed united support for the administration during a visit to Munich for a security conference.
In Ukraine, the head of the country’s defense ministry said the allegation of an impending attack by its military was categorically false and was intended to stoke tensions. But the ministry issued a stern warning to residents of the disputed regions “not to leave their homes and not use public transport.” It provided “information that the Russian special services mined a number of social infrastructure facilities in Donetsk” in order to “destabilize the situation” there.
Updated
February 20, 2022 9:18 pm ET
The warning reflected how Russia seemed to be doing everything it could to put pressure on the Ukrainians, short of sending its troops across the border.
Concerns about a brewing conflict have intensified after US officials said there were up to 190,000 troops and associated militias stationed in and near Ukraine, including separatists. The assessment was given in a statement by the US mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which called it “the most significant military mobilization in Europe since World War II.”
However, in line with Russia’s controversial statements throughout the crisis, Mr. Putin said on Friday that he was open to further diplomacy. The announcement of a meeting between Mr. Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calmed nervous markets and signaled that there was still hope for a resolution of the crisis without a war.
But Mr. Putin stressed that Russia will continue to push for far-reaching demands for “security guarantees” in Eastern Europe that have been rejected by the West, such as stopping NATO’s eastward expansion and withdrawing alliance forces from the region. .
“We are ready to enter the negotiation track, provided that all issues are considered together, without breaking away from the main proposals of Russia,” Putin said at a press conference along with his closest associate President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. who was visiting Moscow.
Friday’s drumming of separatist concerns over Ukrainian provocations coincided with Western officials warning that the “false flag” incident could be used to start a military conflict.
Calling on residents of the contested territories to evacuate to Russia, pro-Moscow leader of the Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin offered a harsh version of what could happen, citing alleged Ukrainian provocations.
“Very soon, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will order the military to go on the offensive to implement the plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics,” he said in a video posted online, without any evidence.
Kiev categorically denied Moscow’s accusations. And in his Friday speech, Mr. Biden said there was “no evidence” behind them.
While Moscow insists it has no plans to invade, it has promised a “tough response” if the United States and its NATO partners do not scale back their presence in Eastern Europe.
In a show of force, Russia is planning a major exercise this weekend that includes launching ballistic and cruise missiles, the country’s defense ministry has said, according to the Interfax news agency.
Russia’s exercises will test its strategic nuclear forces, including ground launchers, bombers and warships used to deliver nuclear weapons. The Black Sea Fleet, which is conducting large-scale exercises in the region bordering Ukraine, will take part in them. Putin will preside over them from a “situational centre,” the Kremlin said.
The Defense Ministry said the exercises were pre-planned, while Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that they were aimed at heightening tensions with the West. But they will appear at a critical moment in the confrontation around Ukraine.
Near the front in Ukraine, explosions of munitions fired by the Ukrainian military and return fire from pro-Russian separatists were heard.
There are 12 houses in total. hit by shelling Friday morning, the local branch said United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
In a speech to Ukraine’s parliament, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov urged Ukrainians living in separatist-held territory not to believe Russian propaganda that the Ukrainian government was going to attack them.
“Don’t be afraid,” he said. “Ukraine is not your enemy.”
The two breakaway regions and breakaway republics are estimated to be home to 3.5 million people, and since the war started there, Russia has granted citizenship to more than 700,000 people living in the Donbass. In his message on Ukraine, Mr. Putin warned of the plight of ethnic Russians in the country, saying events in eastern Ukraine “resemble genocide.”
Highlighting the growing risk of military conflict, Britain announced on Friday evening that it had followed the United States’ lead and evacuated its embassy from Kiev to the western city of Lvov.
Fearing that Russian troops in Belarus could invade Ukraine from the northern border with Belarus, just 140 miles from the capital, Ukrainian authorities have ordered the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster to be closed to tourists.
Valerie Hopkins and Mark Santora reported from Kiev, Ukraine, and Ivan Nechepurenko from Moscow. Eric Schmitt provided coverage from Washington.