The call came at a potentially turning point in relations between the United States and China. White House officials have been watching the nascent partnership between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin with growing concern, and China’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left Western observers uneasy. Beijing does not appear to be fully supportive or outright opposed, making its position vague, which Biden hopes to both decipher and influence when he speaks to Xi on Friday. a preliminary meeting of aides to the two leaders stretched for seven hours earlier this week. And Biden upped the ante when he referred to his phone call the day before, saying his Chinese counterpart “doesn’t believe democracy can survive in the 21st century.”
1. The call came at a critical moment in the Russian-Ukrainian war
“We are concerned that they are considering direct assistance to Russia with military equipment for use in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Thursday, confirming what other US officials have been warning about for days.
The United States has already told some NATO allies that it believes China has a certain willingness to support Russia, although Moscow denies asking for it and Beijing says it is not providing any assistance.
US officials say they believe Xi was concerned about the Russian invasion and the performance of the Russian military, which has experienced logistical and strategic setbacks since the invasion began more than two weeks ago.
Watching from Beijing, Xi was caught off guard by the failure of his own intelligence to predict what would happen, officials said, even though the United States had been warning of an invasion for weeks.
2. China can provide Russia with a variety of support
US officials do not believe China would be willing to provide Russia with large offensive equipment such as tanks or jets. Instead, officials said they thought it was more likely that China would send smaller items such as food, ammunition, parts or surveillance equipment, if anything at all.
Officials said China could still help Russia cushion the effect of Western sanctions relief with financial support, although it is unlikely that the country will be able to fully cushion the effects of US and European measures.
During the call, Biden hopes to make clear to Xi Jinping the shortcomings of Russia’s aid to the war, whether military or financial. He “will make it clear that China will be responsible for any action it takes to support Russian aggression, and we will bear the costs without hesitation,” Blinken said.
It is widely believed that Xi will receive a historic third term in office during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party in Beijing this fall. Western experts believe that in such an important year, Xi Jinping will be especially attentive to the economic risks associated with secondary sanctions. Trade between the European Union and China topped $800 billion last year, and US-China trade was over $750 billion, according to China’s official figures, while its trade with Russia was just under $150 billion. steps to be taken against China if it decides to help Russia. Biden and his administration declined to publicly discuss exactly what options they were considering, but warned that there would be “consequences” for China if they supported Russia.
3. The US should organize a “cold-blooded” partnership between Russia and China
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, U.S. officials watched the rapprochement between Putin and Xi with apprehension. CIA director Bill Burns said last week that the partnership was based on “a lot of very cold-blooded reasons.”
The two leaders said their relationship “has no boundaries” in a lengthy document in February when Putin visited Beijing for talks and attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. In the document, China backed Russia’s central demand for the West, with both sides “opposing further NATO expansion.”
Since then, partnership without limits has been put to the test as Xi weighs how to respond to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The White House is closely watching Beijing’s changing response, from denying the possibility of an invasion to trying to avoid Western condemnation by presenting itself as willing to mediate.
US officials saw mixed signals. When China abstained from the UN vote against Russia, it was seen as a sign of Beijing’s distancing. And a senior Chinese official said last month that Ukraine’s sovereignty must be respected.
But other signs point to a more accommodating stance, including China’s uptick in Russian disinformation. And senior US officials have said the lack of condemnation is a good indication of where China’s loyalty lies.
“We believe that China, in particular, has a responsibility to use its influence with President Putin and protect the international rules and principles that it claims to uphold,” Blinken said on Thursday. “Instead, it looks like China is moving in the opposite direction, refusing to condemn this aggression, trying to portray itself as a neutral arbiter.”
4. American allies in Asia are closely watching China’s reaction to the war in Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which violated its sovereignty and plunged Europe into the most bitter conflict in decades, has caused a wave of concern around the world. One place closely watched is Taiwan, a self-governing island claimed by China.
Beijing recently stepped up military overflights near the island and warned against American support. In the early days of the Ukrainian conflict, there were fears that a Russian invasion might herald a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, although it did not seem imminent.
American officials have since downplayed the parallels, saying a united Russian response could force China to reconsider its plans for Taiwan. The Russian invasion galvanized not only the West and NATO, but also countries in the Asia-Pacific region, a result that US intelligence said Xi was unprepared for, suggesting instead that economic interests would prevent countries there from imposing tough sanctions.
Even some of Biden’s own national security team were surprised at how quickly some US allies in Asia, including Japan and Australia, were ready to impose sanctions on Russia after its invasion.
5. Biden and Xi have a long history and very different worldviews
Biden likes to quote the long hours he spent with Xi when both were vice presidents of their country. He claimed to have spent more time with Xi than any other world leader.
However, they have not met face to face since Biden took office and Xi has not left China during the Covid pandemic. That left them to meet on web conferences or talk on the phone, the dynamic Biden said he didn’t find the perfect fit.
He and his team worked to create a policy of managed competition with China. They upheld the tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump and criticized China for not honoring its obligations under a Trump-era trade deal.
Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Biden seemed intent on refocusing American foreign policy on Asia, where he sees competition between the US and China as the defining challenge of the next century.
And while the Ukraine crisis has occupied the White House in recent weeks, officials insist they are still able to maintain their core vision.