Biden administration officials fear that a growing conflict in the Middle East could lead to a rise in global oil prices and are looking for ways to keep American gasoline prices low if such a rise occurs.
Those efforts include talks with major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia that are holding back their supply and with American oil producers that have the ability to pump more than they already produce, administration officials say.
A senior administration official said in an interview that it was also possible that President Biden could approve a new round of releases from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an emergency stockpile of crude oil stored in underground salt caverns near the Gulf of Mexico. Mr. Biden used the reserves aggressively last year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring and the amount of oil in those reserves remained at historically low levels.
The conflict in the Middle East has not yet driven up the price of oil. A barrel of Brent crude oil traded for about $88 on global markets on Wednesday. That’s up from about $84 earlier this month, just before Hamas attacked Israel and rattled markets. But analysts and government officials worry that prices could rise significantly more if the conflict in Israel expands and the flow of oil from Iran or other major producers in the region is restricted.
So far, American drivers have not felt any pressure. According to AAA, the average price of gasoline nationwide was $3.54 per gallon on Wednesday. That was about 30 cents less than a month ago and 25 cents less than the same day last year.
Government officials fear prices could rise above $5 a gallon again, a level they briefly reached in spring 2022. Mr. Biden made extraordinary efforts at the time to help drive down prices — but those steps are likely to be far less effective in the event of another oil shock.
“They had success in the second half last year, but this year I think they ran out of bullets,” said Amrita Sen, research director at Energy Aspects.
That’s partly because the government didn’t replenish the strategic reserve more aggressively when prices were lower, Ms. Sen said. That could affect its ability to counter rising prices now.
“They were a little overconfident that prices would stay low,” she said. “In some ways they missed the boat.”