Can the San Francisco summit stave off the storms of gloomy Sino-American relations? Many important announcements were not expected and some progress was taken for granted. That’s how it went. But the idyllic atmosphere of the Filoli Garden, where some episodes of the popular Dynasty series were recorded, was not enough to completely eliminate the fundamental differences between the two great powers.
Issues such as Taiwan, the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal or the US ban on the export of advanced microchips have divided the two countries and represent a series of storms that are difficult to compare atmospherically.
Despite everything, both parties agreed to highlight the positive aspects of the meeting. Biden said the talks were “constructive and productive.” He emphasized that when communication breaks down, “accidents happen.” However, in the post-summit meeting with journalists, Biden again used the word “dictator” to describe Xi, as he had done earlier in the year. In China, such reactions to the media after the end of the meeting are interpreted as a complete snub that does nothing to open up bilateral relations.
The rhetoric of both parties’ statements did not deviate an inch from what is known. The United States reaffirmed its promise not to seek a new Cold War or change China’s political system, nor does it seek to revive alliances against China, nor does it intend to provoke a conflict with China, and rejected its support for Taiwan’s independence. China, for its part, did the same, without forgetting to demand coherence between words and actions: it does not seek hegemony, it does not seek to create zones of influence, the world is big enough for everyone to maximize their opportunities, etc. But while the US Affirming their approach to relations in terms of competition, Xi rejected it, although he said he was not afraid of it.
Biden can describe the agreements reached on anti-drug cooperation (fentanyl) with the establishment of a working group as a success; also the resumption of communication between armies or the dialogue about artificial intelligence and its use in the military sector. Xi, for his part, achieved the lifting of sanctions against some companies and companies. What is truly remarkable about both is the institutionalization of the ability to speak directly.
Economic relations between the two countries are closely intertwined and, despite disagreements, continue to act as a relatively moderating pillar of general tensions. But they are also a reflection of tensions. There is no setback in time and hostilities on technology issues as well as selective restrictions on exports or investments continue.
Views on the major international conflicts of today, from Ukraine to Palestine, have been and remain different. Cooperation on climate issues will be maintained.
Taiwan isobars
Deep differences also remain on the Taiwan issue: Xi has called on Washington to stop arming the rebellious island and to support the peaceful reunification of China. Biden, on the other hand, emphasized his opposition to any unilateral change in the status quo and called for restraint in the PLA’s military actions.
He also demanded that Xi refrain from interfering in the ongoing election campaign on the island ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections in January next year. Paradoxically, the former mayor of Taipei, Ko Wen-je, denounced in parallel that the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto US embassy on the island, had asked him to clarify the question of whether the decision to form a coalition between his Party, the PPT, had been hit, and the KMT had given in to pressure from Beijing…
What new guarantees have been given on this issue? Public, few; private, perhaps even more so. Taiwan has reaffirmed itself as a central issue in relations. Regardless of whether the PDP sovereigntists win in January or not, the US stressed that it does not support the island’s independence. Xi apparently assured that he is not planning any military action, either in 2027 or 2035, as some voices in the US claim. Biden rejected calls to stop arms sales to Taipei. Will you moderate?…
Biden is having serious difficulty moderating differences on an issue on which Congress has long taken a position that Beijing interprets as defiant. In 2022 alone, 28 congressmen visited Taipei, a record in ten years. Among them was then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who was the highest-ranking US official to travel to Taiwan in a quarter century.
Despite the stated intention to stabilize bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing, both sides are aware of the numerous obstacles that stand in the way of this goal. And one of them and not least the US Congress, which has become one of the main drivers of the confrontation with China.
On the eve of the meeting, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission released an annual report to the U.S. Congress that said: “The outcome of previous high-level U.S.-China meetings was merely a promise of further meetings.” more conversations instead of concrete actions.”
The report concluded that despite new diplomatic engagements, the trajectory of relations between the two countries had only deteriorated.
Congressional attention toward China has increased exponentially in recent years. Between 2013 and 2021, the number of draft laws affecting the Asian country increased sixfold. Mentions of China in the annual draft U.S. military budget have increased tenfold over the past five years, from 32 in the 2018 budget to 268 in the 2023 budget.
During this time, Congress strengthened U.S. relations with Taiwan, approved billions of dollars in military spending to combat the PLA, restricted China’s access to semiconductors, questioned the CCP’s legitimacy, and supported efforts to form a broad regional and global coalition against Beijing.
Anticyclone?
The main success of the summit is therefore to challenge both countries to prevent further deterioration in relations and create obstacles to this. Frameworks in the form of principles, core interests, red lines, etc. were reiterated. Biden doesn’t want any further problems in the upcoming election campaign. Xi, for his part, needs to focus on domestic affairs. If the summit revealed anything, it is that none of the parties is interested in the conflict at this point.
We are therefore entering a relative grace period with more dialogue and consultation and may be able to restore some of the bilateral framework established during the Obama and Hu administrations.
Donald Trump chose a policy of confrontation with China because he believed that his country’s employment problems could be solved by reversing the trade deficit and creating incentives for North American companies to return home and create jobs. None of the goals were achieved. Despite everything, Biden has not deviated from the logic of relations with China printed by Trump. And he must be “firm” on China before the 2024 elections.
(For Globalters)