Joe Biden likes to present himself as an “incorrigible optimist.” But so far, the President of the United States has not demonstrated this quality in foreign policy, preferring cold realism. Early in his term, he pledged to rebuild ties with some historic allies questioned by his predecessor, Donald Trump, and to address rivalry with China. For him, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was a lost cause, a stressful crisis that could be contained but not resolved. Then Washington’s priorities were upended, first by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and then by Hamas’ attack on Israel. Now the White House is once again forced to take an interest in the Middle East based on patterns from the past.
The war between Israel and Hamas is a disaster for Washington in several ways. It poses a serious risk of regional escalation with the possible intervention of the Lebanese organization Hezbollah or even Iran. Biden wanted to make a statement with his presidency by putting the endless war in Afghanistan on hold in the summer of 2021. And now he stands on the threshold of another door touched by flames. US bases in Syria and Iraq are already targets of armed militias – some with ties to Tehran – who have carried out more than twenty mostly symbolic attacks.
Diplomatically, the United States is isolated in its unconditional support for Tel Aviv. The Biden administration had focused heavily on normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, accepting that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not a prerequisite for historic rapprochement. After the withdrawal from the Middle East, symbolized by Barack Obama’s refusal to attack the Syrian regime over the use of chemical weapons in 2013, the White House is now making another error of judgment: trade relations and investment projects are not a path to peace.
Russia, and to a lesser extent China, are seizing the opportunity to present themselves as defenders of Gaza’s civilian population and advocates of a balanced policy in the Middle East. Westerners may be shocked at Moscow’s hypocrisy after so many Russian war crimes in Ukraine, but the fact remains that they are losing ground in the region.
Even as Washington officials behind the scenes warn the Israelis against hasty invasion plans with no achievable goals, their public words have angered Arab countries, which accuse the Americans of bias and hypocrisy. The White House claims a ceasefire is out of the question because it would benefit Hamas. Israel has Washington’s support in “destroying Hamas.” But what does that mean specifically? Nobody knows.
Of course, the Biden administration recommends doing everything possible to “protect civilians” in Gaza. But the president himself said on October 25, “I’m sure innocents were killed, but that’s the price you have to pay for starting a war.” A way to shift responsibility for civilian deaths in the Gaza Strip to Hamas without taking into account the decisions of the Israeli government and army. On the one hand, complete and necessary empathy towards the Israeli victims; on the other hand, words of fact for the Palestinians. It is in such a complicated context that Biden’s optimism takes place. The president knows Israel well, and when he came to power he immediately noticed the stalemate on the Palestinian issue: Abu Mazen, leader of the Palestinian Authority (PNA), is becoming increasingly powerless and entrenching himself in the West Bank; an Israeli right that is now dominated by religious nationalists and settlers and believes only in violence and unilateral action.
In July 2022, Biden met Abu Mazen in Bethlehem and reiterated his commitment to the two-state solution. However, he concluded that “the ground was not fertile” to resume negotiations. Today that soil is covered in blood, but Washington paradoxically hopes that the drama experienced by Israel can resolve the stalemate and restore meaning to the two-state solution. While it once seemed like a concrete and achievable project after the 1993 Oslo Accords, the phrase has recently become something of a specter, haunting Western communiqués and the prayers of those who persistently defend the coexistence of the two peoples. Coexistence: a word that unfortunately seems out of place today. No historical comparison would go too far in conveying the extent of the emotional, moral, security and political trauma that Israelis have experienced. It is the cruel victory of Hamas, which by nature has no interest in a political solution based on compromise. Apparently, the United States is asking the Israelis for an exchange: they fully support their goal of destroying Hamas, but are asking them to resume negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, which is the only way to maintain relations with Arab countries to restore. “We cannot return to the status quo of October 6th,” Biden warned. “This means ensuring that Hamas can no longer terrorize Israel and use Palestinian civilians as human shields. And it also means that once this crisis is over, we need to develop an idea of what comes next. From our perspective, that means pushing forward the two-state solution.”
The offer seems logical. It is based on the precedent of another Israeli trauma: the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Six years after that conflict, Menachem Begin and Anwar al Sadat signed a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt in Washington. An unprecedented turnaround. But today the US’s tacit offer appears to have been discredited even before it was formally formulated. First, there are the doubts surrounding the likely land operation. The uncertainty of a war is well known: it is decided when it will begin, but the development or end cannot be predicted.
Secondly, this offer requires the presence of reliable interlocutors who behave like statesmen. Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival hangs by a thread. The politician who once presented himself as the guarantor of national security is held responsible for its failure. After 16 years in power, Hamas’ attacks will shape its legacy. Netanyahu has tied his fate to an extreme right that blindly believes in the annexation of territories in the West Bank and Jerusalem and denies the existence of the Palestinian people. Furthermore, Netanyahu has never believed in the possibility of peace. Cynically, he bet on weakening the Palestinian Authority and accepting unwritten agreements with Hamas to maintain relative calm.
On the other hand, Abu Mazen is a leader without ideas at the head of a rotten system, discredited in the eyes of a large part of his people who consider him a collaborator with Israel. The PNA president has no desire to re-govern the conflict-ravaged Gaza Strip. He still harbors a strong grudge against the residents, whom he blames for Hamas’ victory over Al Fatah in the 2006 parliamentary elections. His resentment also extends to Arab politicians in the region who are accused of abandoning the Palestinian cause.
Under these unstable and unfavorable conditions, the White House cannot simply call on Israel not to allow itself to be “consumed by anger” and to invoke the empty formula of the two-state solution. To avoid being suspected of trying to buy time and pursue another shaky peace – which would only be a prelude to a future explosion of violence – the Biden administration must face painful and unchanging questions. What will happen to the 700,000 Israeli settlers in East Jerusalem and the West Bank? What are the prerogatives of a Palestinian state? How can the political and territorial divide between the West Bank and Gaza be overcome? What status will Jerusalem have? Last year, the US government clearly condemned the judicial reform sought by the Israeli right-wing government. But he doesn’t seem to have a broader view of the situation. Nevertheless, the photo is clear. With a Shiite axis hostile to Israel and the United States, it is in Washington’s strategic interest to advance a negotiated solution to the conflict. But his past as a partisan mediator works against him.
At the moment, the White House is of course primarily concerned with dealing with the crisis. In the next phase he does not have to dictate the answers. 2023 is not the time for sponsors and alignments. At the same time, Washington will not be able to limit itself to leaving the search for a solution to the most pressing questions to the two protagonists. In addition, the Arab countries must finally live up to their responsibilities and not only intervene to finance reconstruction in Gaza. If these conditions are not met, we may have to abandon the two-state solution without a viable alternative having now emerged. There is also the danger that we will have to accept that a political issue will become a macabre banquet for religious and identity extremists. This is how the seeds of mutual hatred and denial of the other will grow in the coming decades. One generation after another. One funeral after another. ◆ fdl
Latest news
Rising tensions
◆ In a televised press conference on October 28, 2023, the Israeli Prime Minister said Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the army had invaded the United States Gaza StripThis began what he called the “second phase of the war.” Netanyahu warned that the operation would fail Hamas It will be “long and difficult”. The army continued to bomb Palestinian territory over the next few days, saying it hit “more than six hundred targets” in 24 hours. The United Nations They expressed fears of an “avalanche of human suffering” in Gaza, where, according to Hamas, Israeli attacks since October 7 have caused more than 8,500 casualties (data as of October 31). With the Israeli army’s entry into the Gaza Strip on the evening of October 27, telecommunications and internet connections were disrupted, completely isolating the territory from the rest of the world. On the morning of October 29th, network restoration began. The Hamas Ministry of Health said on October 31 that at least fifty people had been killed in Israeli shelling of the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
◆ Five Palestinians were killed in Israeli army operations on October 30 West Bank, according to the Ministry of Health of the Palestinian Authority (PNA) and Israel. Since the war began, almost 120 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli soldiers or settlers in the West Bank.
◆ On October 31, Israeli authorities announced that 238 hostages were in the hands of Hamas. One of them, the soldier Ori Megidishseized on October 7, was released during the ground operation in the Gaza Strip, while the State Department confirmed the death of a hostage, Shani Louka woman with dual Israeli and German citizenship.
◆ Tens of thousands of people demonstrated in support of the Palestinians on October 28 in various European cities, including London, Paris, Zurich and Rome.
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