Since the NATO leaders’ summit was first talked about about two weeks ago, US and European officials have been discussing potential statements the leaders could make after the meeting, according to several people familiar with the plans.
This could include new sanctions on Russian oligarchs, additional measures to restrict the country’s finances, and new steps to restrict Russian energy imports. There are also discussions about what measures could be made public to provide more support to Ukraine, including new military or financial aid shipments to bolster the country’s defences.
And Biden left open the possibility of increasing US troop deployments to NATO member states along the alliance’s eastern fringe, bolstering America’s commitment to European defense at a critical time.
But the harsh reality that these moves are unlikely to stop Putin’s war will hang over Biden’s visit to Brussels for an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as well as a special session of the European Council and the G7 meeting. Biden may also add another stop in Eastern Europe, possibly Poland, officials said. He leaves Washington on Wednesday for high-level diplomatic maneuvers.
While Biden has managed to rally European and Asian allies behind a punitive set of sanctions and an unprecedented level of military assistance, he and his NATO colleagues have drawn a line where their support will end. While all sides seem to support a diplomatic solution to the crisis, US and European officials say the parameters for such a settlement remain vague.
This leaves open the question of how Biden’s visit to Europe – one of the turning points of his presidency – could change the course of Europe’s most serious conflict since World War II. And this creates another debatable question that world leaders should start debating: what happens if or when Ukraine can no longer resist a Russian attack?
“They will have to see what happens if Ukraine is lost,” said retired General of the Army Wesley Clark, former commander-in-chief of NATO allied forces. “After they have weighed the issue of what will happen if Ukraine falls, they should consider what else can be done to support Ukraine in the fight. Yes, there is a risk. There is always a risk of dealing with Mr. Putin.”
Biden has challenged to be the “leader of the world”
Last week, Ukraine’s leader publicly called on Biden to take responsibility for ending hostilities. In an emotional address to Congress calling for a no-fly zone and help to acquire fighter jets, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke directly to Biden, who was watching from his personal library on the third floor of the White House.
“To be the leader of the world is to be the leader of the world,” Zelensky said in English.
Biden was also invited by former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to visit Ukraine as a “symbol of our solidarity” during his trip to Europe this week.
Speaking to CNN’s Jim Acosta on Saturday afternoon, Poroshenko called Biden “a very good friend of mine and a very good friend of Ukraine,” adding that Biden’s visit would be “extremely the right move to show that the whole world is with us.” against Russia.”
These personal appeals will resonate with a man who, while seeking office, vowed to restore American leadership, renew alliances with the US, and defend democracy from a creeping wave of authoritarianism.
Nowhere is this challenge more urgent than in this week’s emergency talks, as leaders turn to Biden for direction and purpose as the war in Ukraine looms.
“He is challenging Biden to fulfill his responsibilities as leader of the West, leader of the democratic community of nations. And he actually challenged NATO,” said Jan Brzezinski, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Europe and Europe. NATO in the administration of George W. Bush.
“He said that if NATO fails in this task, we should think about other security measures,” Brzezinski said. “What a powerful challenge to NATO’s relevance these days. It sets the context for … () the summit.”
Limits of support for Ukraine in all its glory before the trip
However, when the summits were announced last week, some European diplomats expressed concern over what they saw as a lack of serious steps for the leaders to take at the high-profile meeting, which both Russia and Ukraine will be watching closely.
Key issues that Ukraine needs, such as NATO assistance in setting up a no-fly zone or providing Soviet-era fighter jets, are not yet on the table as the US and its partners seek to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. This means that any statement made at the meetings is likely to focus more on increasing the aid that is already being provided, including military and financial aid, or imposing new sanctions on Russia.
European and US officials said discussions on the announcements and final joint statement are ongoing as the countries look to come up with a decision or conclusions for the summit.
“The President looks forward to meeting his colleagues face to face. I suspect they will have a number of new measures that they can uncover and deploy during these conversations, but I’m not going to get ahead of them. days,” US Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer told CNN last week.
The materialization of a major announcement during the summit could help underscore the current unity among allies, which US officials say surprised Putin as his military grapples with casualties on the ground.
“He miscalculated about the West. I think he thought that … there will be some scolding, maybe a couple of sanctions, but he will endure and be able to continue and be able to move on,” said Marie Yovanovitch, head of the former US ambassador to Ukraine.
“Instead, he inspired the rebirth of NATO. And the West has united in opposition and is trying to ensure not only a kind of strengthening of NATO and flank countries on the border with Ukraine, but also providing support to Ukraine.”
Countering China will be in focus after Biden and Xi call
The upcoming summits will also provide Biden with the opportunity to take the temperature of his colleagues on another issue: what to do if Chinese President Xi Jinping decides to provide Russia with military or economic support, as Putin asked. During the week, Biden outlined the “implications and consequences” of continuing that support, according to the White House. But punishing China, the world’s second largest economy, would be much more difficult than with Russia and would require the same unity with Europe, which has not always agreed with Biden in its approach to Beijing.
“This is an incredibly important summit. It is carried out on an emergency basis in the midst of a crisis. Partly to make sure we and our allies [are] on the same page, which is good. But it is also very important to send a message to Vladimir Putin,” said Kurt Volker, former US ambassador to NATO and special envoy for Ukraine.
Volcker identified several messages the alliance should send during its summit, including reaffirming Article 5 commitments on collective defense guarantees and making it clear that Russia’s use of nuclear weapons would require a Western response.
But he said NATO also needs to make it clear that Ukraine, which is not a member of its group, is nonetheless a matter of critical importance to its members.
“I think it’s very important that NATO also sends a message about Ukraine, that Ukraine’s survival as an independent and sovereign state in Europe is in NATO’s interest,” Volker said. “We don’t want to say what we don’t do. We don’t want to be too specific about what we will do. destroys and liquidates a sovereign European country.”