White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk told a group of think tank experts last week that it was “highly unlikely” that the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran would be revived in the near future, according to three US sources. who were on the phone.
Why it matters: The dwindling likelihood of breaking the deadlock on nuclear talks is increasing pressure on the Biden administration to formulate a plan B.
Backstage: McGurk said at the briefing call the reason there is no nuclear deal is that the Iranians cannot make a decision, according to the three sources.
- McGurk said his theory is that Iran wants the US to “put something in the pot” to help those who want a deal in the internal debate with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but “we won’t.” do”.
- With a deal highly unlikely in the near future, McGurk said the Biden administration intends to use sanctions and diplomatic isolation against Iran “but not to unnecessarily escalate the situation,” and to use force only as a last resort, according to the three sources .
- He said the disagreement with Israel was not about a possible military strike, but whether the US should still try to revive the 2015 nuclear deal or whether it should push for a “longer and stronger” deal.
- The White House declined to comment.
Game Status: The latest round of indirect talks between the US and Iran a month ago in Qatar ended with no progress and no date for another round.
- During his trip to the Middle East, President Biden said the US would not “wait forever” for Iran to respond to his proposal to revive the deal.
- US officials fear the nuclear deal will soon become irrelevant as Iran has taken steps to advance its nuclear program and curb the work of UN inspectors.
What you say: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who is leading mediation efforts between the US and Iran, said in a Financial Times op-ed on Tuesday that after 15 months of negotiations he had concluded that “the room for further significant compromises has been exhausted “.
- Borrell wrote that he had tabled a draft deal detailing the US lifting of sanctions and nuclear steps Iran must take.
- “This text represents the best possible deal… decisions must be made now… if the deal is rejected we risk a dangerous nuclear crisis,” Borrell wrote.
- On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian spoke to Borrell and told him that if the United States takes a realistic step towards a solution and agreement, there will be a good deal available to all parties, Iranian foreign countries, the ministry said in a message with.
- Abdollahian told Borrell that Iran welcomes continuing on the path of diplomacy and negotiations. “America always says it wants a deal, so that approach should be seen in the text of the deal and in practice,” he said.
- Borrell told his Iranian counterpart that he stands ready to facilitate and expedite this process through communication and consultation with all parties.
What’s next: US-Iran envoy Rob Malley and other Biden administration officials will give a secret briefing to the House Foreign Affairs Committee Thursday on the negotiations and status of Iran’s nuclear program.