Joe Biden comes to Ottawa to recite the usual incantations about the strength of the relationship between the two countries. The expectations are modest.
There will be cordiality between Biden and Justin Trudeau on this stormy visit.
The irritations remain, however, and their solutions depend very much on legislators and bureaucrats.
ritual visits
Ever since Harry Truman, the state visit to Ottawa has become a ritual for American presidents, who chant the usual incantations to the solidity of bilateral relations. A few presidents, including Donald Trump, have preferred to whitewash this ritual, and those who have been there barely mention these visits in their memoirs.
For example, John F. Kennedy’s visit was remembered for his famous speech in Parliament, but Kennedy himself retained a bitter memory of it. Not only did he and John Diefenbaker hate each other, but the shovelful of dirt Kennedy dropped in a secular ceremony had revived an old back injury that plagued him until his death.
The visits of Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr. and their close relationship with Brian Mulroney significantly changed bilateral relations.
That doesn’t stop the irritants we talked about then (including timber, agricultural markets, fisheries, the modest Canadian military contribution, or Arctic maritime traffic) from still being there, however.
The new irritants
These traditional irritations will be the order of the day when Biden visits, but new irritations will pick up on most of their discussions without their being able to do anything about it.
With immigration and Roxham Road, expect nothing more than vague declarations of intent. For Biden, the problems on the northern border are nothing compared to those on the southern border. Also, since lasting solutions have to pass Congress, his promises will only be words.
The rhetoric about fighting climate change will cloud the reality of two governments defending their oil and gas producers. Biden may have words of encouragement for Hydro Quebec exports, but the real decisions are being made in the states.
The elephant in the room
We will also discuss NATO, Ukraine and the strategy to be followed in the face of China’s rise, but the sustainability of these commitments will depend on a return to some bipartisan consensus on American foreign policy, which is far from certain.
The elephant in the room during this Ottawa summit will remain the ever-possible return of Trump or one of his supporters to the top of the United States, especially since the return of the Trump circus with the criminal charges hanging over the ex-president who will Completely eclipsed Trip to Ottawa in the American media.
As long as Trumpism and the narrow-minded nationalism that has become a hallmark of Republicans persist in the domestic political environment, prospects for long-term cooperation with the United States, whether on key multilateral issues or more limited bilateral deals, will remain exceedingly uncertain.
