President Joe Biden’s prime-time speech in Philadelphia on September 1 cleared all confusion about the current political situation in the United States. Democracy in the United States is seriously threatened with extinction.
Those words may still sound strange to some. Despite the events of recent years, authoritarian rule is still associated in many people’s minds with burgeoning democratic experiments in developing countries or the darkest pages of European history, not the United States. It is true that the American electorate has been in a state of polarization for a number of years, and that the Republican Party began drifting to the right long before ex-President Donald Trump came into office. But until now, barring a civil war, every political crisis that has tarnished American history has been resolved within the confines of the country’s venerable constitution.
This time, Biden said in his candid and alarming speech, things could be different. A few passages are worth quoting:
“Too much of what is happening in our country today is not normal. Donald Trump and Republicans MAGA [siglas en inglés de Hacer grande a América de nuevo] they represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic… MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution. They don’t believe in the rule of law. They do not recognize the will of the people. They refuse to accept the results of a free election, and they are working state after state right now as I speak to empower partisans and cronies to decide America’s elections and empower refusers to decide their own to undermine democracy.
They are not exaggerations. The Congressional Select Committee on the events of January 6, 2021 has unearthed compelling evidence of Trump’s direct involvement in the Capitol riot. The stop-the-steal action [”detener el robo”] has worked tirelessly in many Republican-controlled states to wrest from impartial administrators the power to announce the results of presidential elections and transfer them to political bodies. His stated intention is to ensure that the Republican presidential nominee (who could well be Trump again) in 2024 doesn’t face the hurdles Trump faced in 2020, when he and his supporters put various pressures on election officials , the result of changing the referendum in several states. Biden’s speech is an open call to defend American democracy from a powerful enemy at home who will stop at nothing to take power.
The enemy in question is the “MAGA Republicans” – Trump supporters. Biden distinguishes them from moderate Republicans, who are loyal to the US Constitution and do not foster “blind loyalty to a single leader.” At the same time, Biden emphasizes the seriousness of the “clear and present danger” to American democracy, while explicitly acknowledging that the Republican Party is “dominated, driven and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans.” In light of this situation, Biden urges all who care about American democracy to defend it by exercising their right to vote and freedom of expression (“speak out, speak up, vote, vote, vote”) [”expresaos, hablad más alto, votad, votad, votad”]). It will work? It’s too early to tell. There are some slightly encouraging signs, but the situation remains difficult.
Two months from now, in November, Americans will be voting in the midterm elections, in which the president’s party traditionally does poorly. This time, however, the trend is a little different. On June 24, the Supreme Court overturned the precedent of Roe v. Wade and overturned federal constitutional protections for abortion rights. Since then, the electoral situation has shifted slightly in favor of the Democrats. The Congressional Generic Ballot poll, which asks people which party they would support in an election (poll data averaged to fivethirtyeight.com), puts the Republicans 2.3% ahead of a Democrat on June 25 0.9% lead reversed.
The results of the most recent midterm elections also show a tendency in favor of the Democratic Party. In the past three weeks, Democratic candidates have seized two congressional districts previously held by Republicans in Alaska and New York. All other by-elections held after the Dobbs decision, although no seats have switched parties, show a clear vote shift towards the Democrats.
Regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections, however, the crisis in American democracy will continue as long as the Republican Party occupies Trumpist positions. It is impossible to predict at this stage if and when this party will return to the Constitution. The aftermath of the Aug. 8 search of Trump’s Miami home, Mar-a-Lago, during which the FBI seized secret documents illegally held, has hurt several Trump-backed Republican candidates and spurred some Republicans to high-profile contenders such as governor Larry Hogan (Maryland) and Glenn Youngkin (Virginia) to publicly distance themselves from the former President.
Therefore, Trump’s famous joke that he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone” and still “won’t lose voters” may have lost some of its poignancy. But even if Trump were no longer seen as an electoral asset, or even left politics, the Republican Party’s anti-Democratic leanings would not necessarily change. The most popular post-Trump presidential candidates are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (whose positions are indistinguishable from Trump’s) and the former President’s son Donald Trump Jr. In the interests of American democracy, the words of the outspoken Biden will hopefully win the most moderate Republicans and convince independents to mobilize for him.
Giovanni Capoccia He is Professor of Politics at the University of Oxford and contributor to Agenda Pública. @gcapoccia1
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