NYT columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin and Walt Disney Company CEO Bob Iger speak during The New York Times' annual DealBook Summit on November 29, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
Many of last year's predictions came true. Disney boss Bob Iger has extended his contract. Christine McCarthy has resigned as Disney's chief financial officer. Paramount Global hasn't sold, but majority shareholder Shari Redstone is currently in talks to sell National Amusements. Google's YouTube has acquired the National Football League's Sunday Ticket package.
Some weren't so good. The media industry didn't recover from the recession as well as one executive had hoped. Netflix has not merged with another company. Apple hasn't banned TikTok from its App Store.
Unfortunately, hope is forever associated with a new year.
Executive 1: Comcast will spin off NBCUniversal and merge it with Warner Bros. Discovery
Warner Bros. Discovery is approaching the two-year anniversary of its merger in 2022, when Discovery merged with WarnerMedia. This deadline is important for Reverse Morris Trust tax purposes. Without getting into the boring details, the most important thing is: Warner Bros. Discovery can strike another significant deal two years after Discovery and WarnerMedia closed.
David Zaslav speaks onstage during the 2023 New York Times Dealbook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center on November 29, 2023 in New York City.
Slaven Vlasic | Getty Images
An executive named NBCUniversal the most likely acquirer of Warner Bros. Discovery. This executive predicted that Comcast CEO Brian Roberts would spin off NBCUniversal so that the new company would operate separately. However, Comcast (and Roberts) would retain a controlling interest in ownership of the new company.
A second manager suggested a more expansionary scenario. Comcast will retain its theme park business but sell the rest of the company in exchange for WBD common stock. Comcast will receive a premium for the rest of NBCUniversal in exchange for Roberts giving up his voting shares. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav will lead the combined company, while NBCUniversal film chief Donna Langley will continue to lead an expanded studio.
Executive 2: Bob Iger will renew his contract as CEO of Disney
Earlier this year, Disney CEO Bob Iger extended his contract until 2026. Iger has stated that he actually plans to leave Disney permanently when his contract expires. Iger has extended his contract as CEO five times to avoid retirement. Of course, when Iger left at the end of 2022, he said the same thing.
This executive predicted, “Fooling me five times is shame on me.” Disney has a lot of strategic problems that don't have easy answers, like figuring out how to move ESPN's business into a direct-to-consumer world fits and how the old TV cable networks can be dismantled. These issues require a steady-handed leader who understands the industry. Is there a better leader of Disney than Bob Iger? The Disney board has consistently decided that this is not the case. Why should it be different this time?
Executive 3: Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo will win their campaign to join the Disney board
Nelson Peltz, Founder and CEO of Trian Fund Management, during the Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute Priority Summit in Miami, Florida, on Thursday, March 30, 2023.
Marco Bello | Bloomberg | Getty Images
One thing that might prevent Iger from extending his contract would be if Nelson Peltz and Jay Rasulo get board seats. Last week, activist investor Peltz and former Disney CFO Rasulo criticized Disney's failed succession planning in a statement announcing their intention to run for the Disney board when candidates are selected next year.
“In our view, the Disney board has failed in its essential responsibilities – overseeing the development of an effective strategy, planning for orderly succession, aligning executive compensation with performance, and ensuring accountability for operational execution,” Peltz said in the declaration.
That manager predicted that Peltz and Rasulo would win their campaigns and both join the board. A second person suggested that only Rasulo would get a spot – perhaps through an agreement before a vote.
Executive 4: Iger will name Dana Walden as his successor as Disney CEO
Dana Walden
Jason Laveris | Movie Magic | Getty Images
If Iger actually leaves, he and the Disney board will have to name a successor. I reported in September that Iger planned to name a successor in early 2025 and give that person about 20 months to prepare for the role. If so, an announcement could come in late 2024. That executive predicted that Disney Entertainment co-chairwoman Dana Walden will get the nod. Iger will once again assume the role of chairman when Walden takes over as CEO, just as he did with Bob Chapek in 2020.
A second person gave another name to keep an eye on him: Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Electronic Arts. This may seem incongruous, but here's some inside baseball for you – the same executive who mentioned Wilson correctly predicted that Iger would return as Disney's CEO in 2022. Then last year the person said that Chris Licht would not survive the year as CNN CEO and McCarthy would be leaving as Disney's CFO. Three for three! So maybe be careful.
Andrew Wilson
Michael Newberg | CNBC
Executive 5: Disney will purchase Candle Media and Kevin Mayer will position himself as the leading internal candidate to take over for Iger
One final Disney successor prediction! This person predicted that Disney would acquire privately held Candle Media to take over Moonbug Entertainment, the owner of CoComelon. Disney would then try to sell Candle Media's remaining assets at bargain prices, the executive predicted.
In February 2020, when it was Disney's streaming boss Kevin Mayer's turn to take over as CEO. But Mayer, seen here on September 29, 2022, and his colleagues were stunned when Iger announced that Bob Chapek would immediately replace Iger.
Bryan van der Beek | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Candle Media is co-led by two former Disney executives, Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs. This person's guess is that Mayer will return to Disney in a senior operational role to position himself as the top successor candidate for Iger, while Staggs would leave the company.
Executive 6: The NBA rights go to Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Apple
Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) attempts a basket in front of Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during the second half in game three of the 2022 NBA Finals at TD Garden.
Kyle Terada | USA Today Sports
One of the most watched media stories of 2024 will be the National Basketball Association's decision with its media rights. I reported in October that the NBA would ideally like to have three media partners with different game packages.
Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery are the incumbents. Both want to maintain promotion relationships with the NBA, although both companies have also stressed that they will be financially disciplined. The league is also looking for a robust streaming option. This is where Apple would come into play. (A second executive said he didn't think Apple would even make a bid for the NBA rights and thought NBCUniversal's Peacock might end up with them.)
Executive 7: The College Football Playoff will not receive the rights fee increase it wants because ESPN will be the only significant bidder
Next to the NBA, the CFP could be the second most important rights contract up for renewal next year. The CFP's current 12-year deal with ESPN expires after the 2025 playoffs.
At this point, the College Football Playoff will expand from four to twelve teams. That may sound tempting as a new live sports giant, but this executive suspects potential bidders Amazon and Apple will balk at the price CFP is asking for the games. ESPN is desperate for live rights as it prepares a direct-to-consumer service and will renew the package, this executive predicts.
Executive 8: Local broadcasters strip most local NBA, NHL and MLB sports rights from regional sports networks
Alec Martinez #23 of the Vegas Golden Knights celebrates with the Stanley Cup after a 9-3 win against the Florida Panthers in Game Five of the 2023 NHL Stanley Cup Finals at T-Mobile Arena on June 13, 2023 in Las Vegas , Nevada.
Zak Krill | National Hockey League | Getty Images
Staying on the topic of sports, the regional sports network business may or may not collapse. Broadcast broadcast groups have been negotiating with the NBA, NHL and MLB for much of the year about broadcasting local games if certain RSNs fail.
Poaching teams from Diamond Sports Group, which filed for bankruptcy earlier this year and broadcasts the games of more than 40 professional sports teams, has been the main target of companies like EW Scripps and Gray Television. Scripps now covers games for the NHL's Las Vegas Golden Knights and Arizona Coyotes. Gray reached an agreement to transfer from the NBA's Phoenix Suns earlier this year.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon is in talks to invest in Diamond Sports Group to keep the company afloat and potentially use Prime Video as a landing platform for streaming rights.
That executive said he believes broadcast broadcast groups will emerge as the main rights winners as leagues push to expand broadcast television reach while cable subscribers decline.
Executive 9: Max, Warner Bros. Discovery's Netflix and Disney will offer the first major streaming package
Media pundits on CNBC like to say that subscription streaming will eventually be bundled into something that looks (and is priced) like traditional cable TV.
But years after the streaming wars began, that hasn't happened. No one has emerged as the dominant aggregator. There is no bundle of many services. It's difficult to get media companies to agree on what something like this would look like.
This executive said that 2024 would be the year that companies would finally start bundling in earnest and predicted that Disney would agree to bundle its trio of streaming services (Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+) with Max and Netflix, to offer a selection of streaming services – at a discount – competes with cable television.
A second manager noted that such a discount would likely need to be promoted by an anchor retailer. This executive's guess is that it will be Amazon. He also predicted that Paramount Global's Paramount+ and Warner Bros. Discovery's Max will be part of the first streaming package offered by Amazon.
Executive 10: RedBird Capital acquires Paramount Global and names Jeff Zucker as CEO
Former CNN Worldwide President Jeff Zucker speaks before First Lady Michelle Obama's screening of the new CNN film “We Will Rise: Michelle Obama's Mission to Educate Girls Around the World” on October 11, 2016.
Cheriss May | NurPhoto | Getty Images
Private equity firm RedBird Capital, founded by Gerry Cardinale, has recruited executive talent including two former NBCUniversal bosses in Jeff Zucker and Jeff Shell, who will begin working at the private equity firm in early 2024.
That executive made the bold decision that RedBird would acquire not just Shari Redstone's National Amusements, but Paramount Global entirely, backed by a consortium of outside backers, including money from David Ellison and BDT Capital, the private equity led by Michael Dell and Byron -Company Trott, which supported Redstone earlier this year.
Zucker could then run Paramount Global and do the dirty work of deciding what part of the company to run and what to sell. Still, that executive said Zucker would retain most of the assets and try to prove that the company was undervalued as a publicly traded company.
Executive 11: CNN will let go of one of its top anchors by redirecting its money to the digital world
No matter how great CNN makes its programming, the cable news giant probably can't defeat the larger secular forces of declining cable subscribers. This means that new CEO Mark Thompson, who wants to invest more in the digital sector, has less money at his disposal.
That executive predicted that CNN couldn't increase its digital spending without curbing its declining linear television business — and that would mean giving up at least one of its big-name anchors to save money.
The move will usher in a new era at CNN in which star anchors will no longer be the company's focus.
Executive 12: Linda Yaccarino will not survive the year as CEO of X
X/Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino speaks onstage during Vox Media's 2023 Code Conference at the Ritz-Carlton, Laguna Niguel on September 27, 2023 in Dana Point, California.
Jerod Harris | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images
Former NBCUniversal advertising chief Linda Yaccarino joined X as its new CEO in 2023, but the fit with the company seems to be making less sense by the day as advertisers flee.
Yaccarino suffered from an awkward interview with CNBC's Julia Boorstin earlier this year, when Boorstin asked her if she was CEO “in name only” and was only at the company to fulfill the wishes of owner Elon Musk.
This executive predicted that Yaccarino would either lose patience or find her job increasingly meaningless and leave the company in 2024.
Executive 13: No film tops $1 billion at the box office all year
The Minions
Jason LaVeris | FilmMagic | Getty Images
For the first time in more than 15 years, excluding the pandemic shutdown in 2020, no film will gross more than $1 billion at the box office, this executive predicted. (This year, “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” easily grossed $1 billion each, while “Oppenheimer” came in just shy of around $950 million.) Universal's “Despicable Me 4.” has the best chance, this person said. But predicting that only Despicable Me 4 would break the $1 billion mark isn't that bold, and you only live once… anonymously.
Nice holidays!
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, the owner of CNBC.
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