NEW DELHI (CNN) Foreign ministers from the world’s largest economies have gathered in New Delhi, setting the stage for a major test of Indian diplomacy as it seeks to manage tensions over Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
At the second high-level ministerial meeting under India’s Group of 20 (G20) presidency this year, the country’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, will meet his American, Chinese and Russian counterparts on Thursday in hopes of finding enough common ground to start a joint… statement to be made at the end of the summit.
The world’s largest democracy, with a population of more than 1.3 billion, is striving to position itself as the leader of emerging and developing economies – often referred to as the Global South – at a time when food and energy prices are skyrocketing The result of the war is pounding consumers already grappling with rising costs and inflation.
Those sentiments were at the heart of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s opening address on Thursday, as he spoke of several crises facing the world, with less prosperous nations being hit particularly hard.
“The experiences of the last few years, financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, terrorism and wars clearly show that global governance has failed,” Modi said.
“We also have to admit that the tragic consequences of this failure will be borne most by the developing world,” who he says are most affected by global warming “caused by the richer countries.”
Modi dodged the war in Ukraine, acknowledging that the conflict caused “deep global divisions”. But he encouraged foreign ministers to put differences aside at their meeting on Thursday.
“We should not allow problems that we cannot solve together to get in the way of those we can solve,” he said.
G20 flags in New Delhi on February 28, 2023.
But analysts say India’s attempt to advance its agenda has been complicated by persistent divisions over the war.
Those differences played out in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru last month when G20 finance chiefs failed to agree on a statement after their meeting. Both Russia and China declined to sign the joint statement criticizing Moscow’s invasion. This left India to issue a “Presidency Summary and Outcome Document” summarizing the two-day talks and acknowledging differences of opinion.
Analysts say New Delhi has deftly balanced its relations with Russia and the West throughout the war, with Modi emerging as a widely courted leader.
But as the war enters its second year and tensions continue to rise, pressure could mount on countries, including India, to take a more forceful stand against Russia – and test Modi’s statesmanship.
India’s balancing act
The G20 summit, arguably India’s most famous event of the year, was heavily promoted domestically, with sprawling billboards featuring Modi’s face plastered across the country. Before the dignitaries visited, streets were cleaned and buildings freshly painted.
Taking place under Modi’s leadership in the “mother of democracies,” his political allies were keen to underscore his international credentials and portrayed him as a key player in the global order.
Last year’s G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, issued a joint statement echoing what Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks earlier on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan.
“Today’s era must not be marked by war,” it said, prompting media and officials in India to claim that India played a crucial role in bridging differences between an isolated Russia and the United States and its allies.
A table decorated with flowers greets the foreign ministers on February 28, 2023 in New Delhi, India.
India, analysts say, prides itself on its ability to balance ties. The country, like China, has refused to condemn Moscow’s brutal attack on Ukraine in several United Nations resolutions. Rather than sever economic ties with the Kremlin, India has undermined Western sanctions by increasing its purchases of Russian oil, coal and fertilizers.
But unlike China, India has grown closer to the West – particularly the US – despite its ties with Russia.
New Delhi’s ties with Moscow date back to the Cold War, and the country remains heavily dependent on the Kremlin for military equipment — an important link given India’s ongoing tensions with China on its shared Himalayan border.
The US and India have taken steps to strengthen their defense partnership in recent months as both sides seek to counter the rise of an increasingly assertive China.
Daniel Markey, senior adviser on South Asia for the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), said while India’s leaders want to “facilitate an end to this conflict that preserves New Delhi’s ties with both Washington and Moscow and ends the disruption of the conflict world economy” India had no “particular influence” on Russia or Ukraine that would make an agreement likely.
“I believe other world leaders are equally interested in playing a peacemaking diplomatic role. So if and when Putin wants to come to the table for negotiations, he will not be short of diplomats hoping to help,” he said.
As Putin’s aggression continues to wreak havoc on the global economy, Modi’s opening statement said India has signaled its intention to address the Global South’s many concerns, including climate issues and food and energy security.
“The world looks to the G20 to address the challenges of growth, development, economic resilience, disaster resilience, financial stability, transnational crime, corruption, terrorism, and food and energy security,” Modi said.
navigate tensions
While Modi’s government appears keen to prioritize domestic political challenges, experts say those issues may be sidelined by tensions between the US, Russia and China, which have risen recently over concerns from Washington that Beijing is considering sending deadly aid to the Kremlin’s struggling war effort.
Ramin Toloui, US assistant secretary of state for economic and business affairs, told reporters last week that while Secretary of State Antony Blinken will highlight his efforts to resolve food and energy security issues, he will also “underscore the damage Russia’s war is doing who caused aggression.”
Blinken will “encourage all G20 partners to redouble their demands for a just, peaceful and lasting end to the Kremlin’s war, in line with the principles of the UN Charter,” Toloui said.
At the same time, in a statement on Wednesday, Russia accused the US and the European Union of “terrorism” and said it was “ready to make clear Russia’s assessments” of the current food and energy crises.
“We will draw attention to the destructive barriers that the West is exponentially multiplying to block the export of commodities vital to the global economy, including energy sources and agricultural products,” Russia said, hinting at the difficulties it is having that New Delhi may be facing during the briefing.
India has “worked very hard not to be pushed to one side or the other,” Markey said. The country “can’t afford to alienate Russia or the US, and Modi doesn’t want the discussion about the war to force difficult decisions or distract from other issues such as green, sustainable economic development,” he added.
But with Washington-Beijing ties plummeting after the US military shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon that was flying over American territory, New Delhi must carefully advance difficult negotiations between conflicting viewpoints.
China claims the balloon that US forces shot down in February was a civilian research plane that accidentally went off course, and the aftermath caused Blinken to postpone a planned visit to Beijing.
With disagreements likely to play out during Thursday’s ministerial meeting, analysts said India could see even limited progress as a win.
“Any joint statement would likely be portrayed in the Indian media as a diplomatic achievement,” Markey said. “But its broader meaning would be limited.”