It's Week 18 in the NFL, with five playoff spots up for grabs and four division titles waiting to be won. The Atheltic's Mike Sando, Kalyn Kahler and Jeff Howe try to make sense of it all in our latest roundtable previewing the weekend's games.
Buffalo Bills-Miami Dolphins will determine the winner of the AFC East in the regular season finale. What does each team need to not only win on Sunday, but also head into the playoffs with confidence?
Sando: For the Dolphins, avoiding a second consecutive significant loss for a team that has already secured a playoff spot would be enough, provided Miami avoids further key injuries. As for the matchup, I'm looking at what kind of pressure the Dolphins can put on Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Injuries have sidelined the Dolphins' top pass rushers. Last week, Lamar Jackson completed 7 of 8 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns as the Dolphins blitzed. When Buffalo defeated Miami in Week 5, Allen completed 5 of 5 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins' blitz attack.
How: The Bills haven't necessarily found a traditional running game, but they're definitely trying to keep James Cook involved as much as possible. This appears to be one of the biggest differences since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Allen has thrown three touchdown passes and six touchdown runs during his four-game winning streak, so he's done it with his legs when the time calls for it. The Dolphins need to stick to their schedule and avoid the disastrous stretches that have knocked them down several times. They gave up 17 straight points to the Bills in the second quarter of their 48-20 loss in Week 4 and gave up 21 straight points at halftime in less than five minutes in the 56-19 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. In the 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, Kansas City scored 14 points in the final 2:31 before halftime. The Dolphins have been eliminated from games when they have applied pressure in these crucial moments.
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Kahler: Miami's injuries are increasing. Losing Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL last week really hurt this defense that was already without Jaelan Phillips. Chubb led the team in pressures (70) and sacks (13) this season. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are questionable and Tyreek Hill has been hit. This is out of Miami's control, but the most important thing is to escape without losing another key starter. For Buffalo, Allen needs to keep rushing. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.2 rushing attempts per game, compared to 4.8 attempts per game before that.
Week 18 will also decide whether the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts make the playoffs. What or who is the biggest key to victory for each team in their match?
Sando: Indy's defense is the key to this matchup. The Colts likely won the Week 2 game between the teams despite allowing 10 explosive plays (passes of 15+ yards, rushes of 12+ yards). That's the second-highest total Indy has allowed all season and a number that will be difficult to overcome. Houston's offense hasn't been nearly as explosive down the stretch, even since CJ Stroud returned from injury. Can the Texans return to their explosive ways in the rematch? If so, they should win.
How: If Stroud is the best player on the field — which he should be — the Texans will win. The Colts have exceeded expectations this season, but their defense probably can't keep up against Stroud. If the Colts find a way to win, they'll likely need Gardner Minshew to do something incredible because the Texans' third-ranked run defense has been tough to crack.
Kahler: The last time the Colts and Texans played, the Colts won – largely by dominating a makeshift Houston offensive line and sacking Stroud six times. In this Week 2 game, the Texans were without several OL starters, including left tackle Laremy Tunsil. It looks like only one of the offensive linemen who started this game will be in the starting lineup on Saturday. The improved and healthier offensive line keeping Stroud's jersey clean will make this game much different than the first. And with the Colts, Minshew will have to be careful because the Texans have a dangerous pass defense.
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The Ravens and San Francisco 49ers will rest their starters this week. Is this typically a smart move, especially for a team that has a bye during the wild card round?
Sando: It's a great opportunity to protect key players and ensure veterans are rested for the playoffs. There is no evidence that a break in the starting lineup leads to poor playoff performance, but there is evidence that injury prevents a player from playing well, if at all.
How: I don't like the idea of generally giving starters a break before a playoff bye week because it increases the likelihood of complacency. In a situation where players like Christian McCaffrey rightfully need time to get healthy, that's completely reasonable. It's not just about Sunday either. If you tell players at the start of the week that they are not playing, it is human nature to relax more than if they were preparing for a game. The New England Patriots had a first-round bye every season from 2010 to 2018, and while it wasn't always resolved by the finale, Tom Brady and his healthy teammates were always there to finish the regular season, even if They didn't play cable to cable. Of course, there is the risk of a catastrophic injury and the embarrassing consequences that come with it, but how often do teams put their foot down in the divisional round and then forget where to find the accelerator?
Kahler: It's best to rest. You don't want to lose a key player in a meaningless game like the Los Angeles Chargers did last year when they played Mike Williams in Week 18. I understand the ongoing momentum argument, but that could never outweigh the alternative – injuries – which is likely.
Sando: They haven't been good enough on defense all season. It's mainly because the weak defense can catch up with them. They won games at the start of the season that could easily have been a loss. Things have calmed down and here are the Eagles, probably where they belonged all along.
How: I commend the Eagles for their resiliency and ability to win in different ways as they had to go through some things during their 10-1 start, but they haven't made enough progress over the last few months. There were growing pains with the new coordinators, and the defense wasn't nearly as good as it was a year ago, particularly in terms of total sacks. It's wild how quickly things can change. The Eagles beat the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills in November, but as of early December they will enter the playoffs without having beaten anyone but the New York Giants.
Kahler: Defense is the obvious answer, but it feels like the only thing working for the Eagles on offense is the tush push. Jalen Hurts hasn't looked like himself this season. Philadelphia has mostly remained tight-lipped about what injury he may or may not be dealing with, but he has worn a knee brace from time to time. The Eagles miss his explosive running game. He just doesn't beat them as well as he did last season.
GO DEEPER
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Which team will have the tougher opponent standing in their way for a playoff spot on Sunday: the Green Bay Packers against a rival Chicago Bears team that is playing relatively well? Or the Seattle Seahawks against a spirited Arizona Cardinals team that earned a win over the Eagles?
Sando: The Bears are the tougher and more talented opponent. If the Packers lose, it's because the Bears played them hard. If the Seahawks lose, it will say more about Seattle, which has even more problems on defense than Green Bay.
How: The Bears have won five of seven games and have been playing well for some time. They have only lost one game by more than one possession since their 0-4 start, so they are largely competitive even if they haven't won. The Packers have also won five of seven games, but after back-to-back wins against the Detroit Lions and Chiefs, they lost to the Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's shaping up to be a hard-fought game, and the Packers won't win if they don't play at a high level.
Kahler: Packer. The 2023 Bears could be the 2022 Lions, the lovable underdogs poised to become good, just with a less aggressive head coach. Chicago has a lot of momentum right now, and Fields is fighting for his job — or, more likely, his next job. The Bears have never beaten Green Bay in the Matt Eberflus era. Green Bay's defense has struggled and I can imagine Chicago's running game getting hot. Fields also had perhaps his best game as a passer last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.
(Photos of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and CJ Stroud: Michael Owens, Sarah Stier and Cooper Neill / Getty Images)