Putin has already spoken of “betrayal” in view of his former confidant. Prigozhin himself must now leave Russia and settle in neighboring Belarus. On Sunday, however, nothing was heard or seen from the 62-year-old, who has been irritating Moscow for weeks with criticism of the war in Ukraine. Despite the success in the power struggle, many experts see Putin (70) weakened. The West has followed developments in Russia closely but has been reluctant to comment.
It is not clear how the new situation in Russia will affect the war in Ukraine, which has raged for more than 16 months. There were deaths and injuries again over the weekend. Wagner mercenaries were among Russia’s most important troops in the Ukrainian war. Kiev hopes the counter-offensive is now progressing better.
The “special military operation” has the highest priority, Putin said in an interview broadcast on Rossiya TV channel on Sunday. “It’s how I start and end my day,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov described Russian officials as weak and said things were “going in the right direction”. This emerges from a telephone conversation with his American colleague Lloyd Austin.
The sudden end of the uprising on Saturday night came as a surprise after a day of rumours. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov promised that Wagner’s insurgent fighters would not be prosecuted for their services at the front. According to the official account, Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko had already made Prigozhin surrender.
Videos showed how the mercenary chief left the center of Rostov-on-Don in a black SUV on Saturday. The revolt had begun in the metropolis. Information about his further whereabouts was initially unavailable. The RTVi station received the information from Prigozhin’s press office: “He sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he has normal reception again.”
Prigozhin’s prospect in Belarus was met with little enthusiasm by the local opposition. Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya fears further unrest. “Bringing war criminal Prigozhin to Belarus adds another element of instability,” she said.
A sensational 24 hours preceded the deal between the mercenary boss and the Kremlin. Prigozhin and his men kept Russia in suspense. There were also concerns about the civil war. According to Prigozhin, the reason for the uprising was that a Wagner camp inland was attacked with rockets, helicopters and artillery on Friday night. Many mercenaries were killed. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu gave the order, he said. The Department of Defense vehemently denied this.
Prigozhin said in a voicemail that he had 25,000 men under his command. Anyone who resists will be killed immediately. The FSB domestic secret service launched investigations and called on the mercenaries to arrest their leader. Within hours, Prigozhin first crossed the Russian border, and then captured the main military installations in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don. It also houses the military headquarters of the Southern Region – a command center for the war against Ukraine.
Other columns of his fighters went to Moscow and fought with security forces in the Voronezh region. In the capital, streets were hastily demolished, sandbags were piled up, checkpoints were set up and a counter-terrorist emergency was declared. In a televised address, Putin spoke of a “blow in the back” and called on Wagner’s troops to surrender. Prigozhin then accused the Kremlin chief of completely misjudging the situation. He said of his insurgent troops: “We are patriots of our homeland.”
As surprising as the outbreak of the crisis was, the mercenary chief then ordered his troops back. Officially, he justified this by wanting to avoid “bloodshed”. He may also have realized that his chances of success were slim. According to observers, Putin finally managed to assert himself relatively quickly. It was also said that there were no moves to withdraw important personalities from politics or the military. However, the head of the Kremlin sees the fact that such an uprising could have happened as a great weakness.
Western politicians were remarkably reserved. Most explanations simply said that the situation was being monitored. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the uprising “clearly raises new issues for Putin to deal with”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seized the opportunity to call on Russians to overthrow their head of state. “The longer that person is in the Kremlin, the greater the catastrophe.”
According to American media reports, there was already evidence of an uprising. According to the Washington Post, US intelligence received information in mid-June that Prigozhin was planning armed action against the military leadership. The White House was also informed. According to the “New York Times”, the US secret service informed senior military officials on Wednesday that Prigozhin was preparing military measures against his own leadership.
The extent of fighting during the uprising remained largely uncertain. According to pro-Russian military blogs, several Russian Air Force pilots were killed. Information on the number of fatalities varied between 13 and more than 20 military personnel, advances the independent Internet portal currenttime. A total of six helicopters and one reconnaissance aircraft were shot down by Wagner. There was no confirmation of this from the Russian authorities.
However, authorities announced on Sunday that 19 houses in the Pavlovsk district of the Voronezh region were damaged by gunfire from Wagner’s gunmen. We want to compensate for the damage. On Sunday night, with the exception of Voronezh, the withdrawal of Wagner’s troops from all areas was reported.
The “anti-terror precautions” taken in Moscow remained in effect on Sunday, but there were significantly fewer police in sight. Passers-by said they weren’t worried.
According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW) in Washington, the uprising revealed huge weaknesses in the Russian security system. That could weaken the morale of Russian soldiers at the front, he said. According to ISW, the Wagner mercenaries could have reached the Moscow suburbs if Prigozhin had wanted to.