Ten months afterinvasion of Ukraineand after the annexation of the Donbass territories, Putin agrees to negotiate peace between one missile and another while new evidence of the crime carried out by the Russian military against the population of Ukraine.
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Zelensky he is rightly suspicious of Putin’s offer. Many commentators have attempted to analyze the causes of this absurd war, but few have assessed the overall picture that emerges from Putin’s previous wars, his speeches, the tools for building internal consensus, and the physical elimination of opponents. In fact, Putin’s peaces have always been imposed very harsh conditions for the former opponent: in Chechnya the pro-Russian dictatorship of the Kadyrovs, father and son, was imposed; In the Georgia The regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia were taken away and turned into pro-Russian autonomous republics.
Putin’s official speeches are easily accessible, even translated, on the Kremlin website. Putin claims Ukraine is one nation artificially were built on Russian territory in Soviet times and that the Russian and Ukrainian populations are essentially a single population. With the fall ofsoviet union (according to Putin the greatest tragedy of the 20th century), a distinction that initially had only administrative value, led to Ukraine’s secession from Russia. Russia in Putin’s words would have been “robbed”. of the former Soviet Socialist Republics, and with this war (and with the previous ones in Chechnya and Georgia) he would do nothing but take back what is his. The Ukrainian people would have been mislead and removed from its Slavic, Russian and Christian Orthodox cultural cradle by the sirens of American propaganda; only for this reason would he refuse the fraternal embrace of Great Mother Russia today.
In 2014, Putin said exactly the same as Crimeaand in 2022 he repeated them over the Donbass.
Putin’s reasoning is a century or more old: it serves to justify wars of conquest, which is the purpose expand the borders of an empire, possibly up to the restoration of the territory of the USSR, regardless of what the peoples now inhabiting the former Soviet Socialist Republics want. In the best tradition of past tyrants, Putin believes it is terror the best means governing the rebellious peoples and the massacres in Ukraine, Chechnya and Georgia are not random events carried out by undisciplined soldiers, but elements of a project imperialist.
The journalist Anna Politkovskaya He had already denounced this project by describing the crimes committed during the second Chechen war in the book Chechnya. Russian shame, and paid for his bravery with his life, as we all remember; Nor was she the only dissenter silenced shot or poisoned: Boris Nemtsov, Stanislav Markelov, Natalia Estemirova and many others met the same fate while Alexei NavalnyHe, who escaped attempted poisoning, is currently in prison.
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The methods used by Putin to build the approval internally by funding youth organizations from supporters (Nashi, Kimshki, etc.).
Because Putin is like that in the eyes of a European obsolete It is incomprehensible that many glean from his speeches, perhaps through second- or third-hand reports, references to the expansion of NATO that would threaten Russia by encircling it. These arguments are futile: Every country is “surrounded” by other countries and there must be a border between Russia and NATO; Furthermore, Putin’s wars have the effect of persuading all countries bordering Russia to seek Russia’s support Bornand are therefore opposed to avoid their extension.
Unfortunately, the pacifists who believe Putin’s peace offers are gods deceived: Ukraine, despite accepting the de facto state in Crimea in 2014, has not avoided the ensuing war and loss of Donbass, and its autonomous existence is under threat. It is not even clear which other countries Putin considers “stolen” from Russia: in Lithuania, like in Poland or Moldova, citizens do not sleep peacefully. Only in this sense does the war in Ukraine correspond to an interest, if not of NATO, then at least of those member states that could be the subject of Putin’s expansionist goals.
The only plausible hope is that Ukraine’s resistance will force Putin to accept at least one Armistice of indefinite durationwithout territorial concessions, and that Russian public opinion is rebelling against Putin’s policy of annexation.