We’re now a week into the NFL playoffs and the field of teams remaining in the mix for the Super Bowl has shrunk to eight. By the end of this weekend we will have narrowed it down further, with just two teams in the AFC and two in the NFC vying to represent their respective conferences on football’s biggest stage.
As usual, we’re expecting some pretty wild things when these games actually start. So here we are once again with no bold predictions. Just like last week, we have one planned for every matchup.
When the Chiefs and Jaguars played again in Week 10, Travis Kelce had a good game. He caught 6 of 7 passes thrown his way for a total of 81 yards and a touchdown. But as we know, Kelce can do a lot more than just that stat line. And the Jaguars have had a lot of trouble defending tight ends this season. Jacksonville ranked 32nd (aka bottom) in the NFL in DVOA in tight end throws, according to Football Outsiders. The Jags gave the players at that position 81 receptions for 1,066 yards and seven points, and we’ve seen their linebackers in particular take advantage of in coverage throughout the year. Even against the Chargers last week, Gerald Everett and Donal Parham combined for 10 receptions for 133 yards and one count on 13 goals. Expect Kelce to have a big day on Saturday.
Danny Dimes has improved tremendously in almost every area this season. Nowhere was that more evident than in his performance against the Vikings at Super Wild Card Weekend, which was perhaps the best game of his career. Jones completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns while rushing 17 times for 78 extra yards. In two games against Minnesota this season, Brian Daboll and co. allowed Jones to air it by utilizing one of the NFL’s friendliest pass defenses. The Eagles don’t have a friendly pass defense. They have one of the best pass rush units in the league and an extremely sticky group of coverage players. Jones was 18 of 27 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams played, and though he added four carries for 26 yards and one extra score, he also caught four sacks. The Giants offense is better now than it was then, but dealing with that Philadelphia defense is still a much harder task than it was a week ago.
Bills vs. Bengals: Buffalo Reveals Cincy’s Lack of Upfront Depth
The Bengals bleed offensive linemen weekly. In week 16, they lost season-long right tackle La’el Collins to a cruciate ligament tear. In week 18 they lost guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. And last week in the wild card game against the Ravens, they lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee problem. The Bengals will likely start only two-fifths of their starting offense. You could maybe get away with starting Hakeem Adeniji or Jackson Carman or Max Scharping… but all of them? That’s just too much to survive against the Buffalo defense – even with Joe Burrow at the controls. Greg Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Tim Settle — the Bills just have too much talent up front. And they can complement that group with Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds flowing to the ball.
49ers vs. Cowboys: The Shanahan Show continues
Brock Purdy barely worked a sweat during the 49ers’ offensive detonation against the Seahawks last week. According to NFL.com’s Next Gen Stats, of his 30 pass attempts, only TWO were thrown into a narrow window. That’s the Kyle Shanahan Effect. San Francisco’s offensive mastermind can plan players as well or better than any coach in the NFL, and in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Elijah Mitchell, he has one of the best skill position corps in the NFL to work with will. It’s borderline unfair. The Dallas defense closed Tampa Monday night, but they’re still understaffed in the secondary school and may have a slightly limping Jayron Kearse after suffering a knee injury against the Bucs. The bet here is that San Francisco will find a way to take advantage of this back end group.