In April, three movies could open at over $50 million, but it’s still not enough to match April 2019.
For the first time since Venom: Let There Be Carnage, No Time to Die and Dune debuted last October, April will produce three releases that could exceed $100 million in gross earnings: ” Morbius” (Sony), “Sonic the Hedgehog 2” (Paramount) and “Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore” (Warner Bros.), all of which have a shot at over $50 million.
That could go a long way in reducing the current box office imbalance, with Spider-Man: No Way Home and The Batman accounting for 57 percent of the domestic box office. For 2022 through March 31, the box office totals approximately $1.325 billion. In 2019, the first three months represented $2.5 billion.
The company badly needs consistent performance from a wider range of movies and in quick succession. Nine feature films will be presented in April, many (but not all) based on franchises.
Morbius comes first. The third film in Sony’s Spider-Man spinoff universe (after the two Venom titles) opens on April 1, 21 months after its originally planned date. It was last scheduled for January but had another delay due to Omicron and the preservation of Spider-Man screens.
Related
Related
No one expects it to get anywhere near the $80 million opening of “Carnage” last October (a shock in itself; Sony suggested $40 million as likely). Early reviews are terrible, but Carnage was also largely panned. The studio is again forecasting $40 million per source, suggesting there’s a chance of $50 million or more.
In February 2020, the first “Sonic the Hedgehog” was the last film to open above $50 million before Covid. It grossed almost $150 million before the theaters closed a month later and then had huge PVOD success. The second rendition of a successful animated family film often starts the same as or before the first. The lack of family alternatives since Sing 2 should propel Sonic 2’s April 8 opening past $50 million, followed by a strong and sustained run.
The following week is Easter weekend and the premiere of the third film in the Fantastic Beasts franchise. The previous films opened the weekend before Thanksgiving in 2016 and 2018, both grossing over $60 million. For “Dumbledore” $ 50 million seems feasible.
Other openers include Michael Bay’s low-budget “Ambulance” (Universal), starring Jake Gyllenhaal, which has already opened overseas with mixed results. It goes domestic on April 8th. Also out on Universal on April 22 is Dreamworks Animation’s “The Bad Guys,” which can also be seen elsewhere.
“The Unbearable Weight of a Huge Talent”
screenshot
Lionsgate has Nicolas Cage in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent on April 22nd. Also supported by reviews is the April 8th expansion to SXSW opening title A24, Everything Everywhere All at Once. The focus is on Robert Egger’s highly anticipated “The Northman” on April 22nd. All are strong additions to an otherwise conventional schedule.
The end of the month is “Memory” (Open Road). Yet another Liam Neeson thriller, these have started to see sharply diminishing returns.
All in all, a rough estimate for the month is $600 million to $650 million. That would even improve on March’s $575 million with The Batman. It would be just a small relative improvement from 2019, with Avengers: Endgame opening in late April, grossing $427 million in just five days. This year, Disney returns to kick off its early-summer Marvel title with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness the first weekend in May.
No April openings have a same-day streaming alternative. Most, including Morbius, Sonic, and Beasts, will likely have at least 45-day windows. That’s crucial for cinemas looking to reestablish the idea that house availability isn’t immediate.
May has Doctor Strange and Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount), both of which cost over $100 million, but April is the opportunity to get more people back to the movies. Perhaps this time the momentum can be maintained.
Sign up: Stay up to date on the latest movie and TV news! Sign up for our email newsletter here.